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The dynamics of water balance in Slovenia and anticipated future changes
Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka
Assessment of the characteristics of water balance component on three climaticaly different locations- Ljubljana with the longest observation period (1851-1994), Novo mesto (1862-1994) and Maribor ...(1901-1994) is presented. Quantitative estimates of selected water balance terms (potential evapotranspiration calculated according Thornthwaite method, water surpluses and deficits) dynamics in the investigated period is given for two soils with different moisture storage capacity (60 and 100 mm). To determine the potential consequences of climate change to water balance in Slovenia, IPCC Business-as-usual scenario was used (warming of 2K associated with 10% decrease of precipitation amount). Results show that PET has significantly increased but surpluses have decreased considerably. Possible consequences of climate change according to IPCC scenario are 10% increase in annual sum of PET, water surplus decrease by 24% to 49% and soil moisture deficit is notable increased (from 90% to 160% higher in case of soil MSC 100 mm and 60 mm).
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