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In situ population dynamics of Aurelia aurita s.l. polyps: a modelling perspective
Hočevar, Sara, 1989- ...
The drivers of moon jellyfish outbreaks are still uncertain, despite considerable research efforts in the last decades. The perennial benthic polyps determine to a large extent the medusae numbers. ...Our study was designed to assess annual and seasonal changes in polyp density and asexual reproduction rates in naturally occurring populations of Aurelia scyphistomae. A three-year survey of polyp populations attached underneath oysters at five locations in the bay of Koper (Slovenia) indicated significantly higher densities at protected sites and in the temperature window 20 % 25 %C. Budding was not significantly related to either temperature or salinity although it was more intense during warm months. In contrast, strobilation was significantly higher in the temperature window 10 - 15 °C and did not occur at temperatures < 8 or >17 °C. In order to better understand the causes of periodic dynamics observed in the population of Aurelia polyps we propose a family of non-autonomous models. The models are based on the continuous-time logistic model but include a periodic intrinsic growth rate r(t) and/or a periodic carrying capacity K(t) that reflect seasonal changes in the environment. We put forward several biologically meaningful functions r(t) and K(t) and estimate the yearly mean values of r and K from empirical data. In situ estimated values are compared with published data from laboratory experiments carried out with polyps of A. aurita collected from our monitored site.
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