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Programska oprema za napovedovanje pretovora kontejnerjev v Severno-Jadranskih pristaniščih s poudarkom na Luki Koper [Elektronski vir]Dragan, Dejan ; Intihar, MarkoProgramska oprema je namenjena napovedovanju bodočega pretovora kontejnerjev v Severno-Jadranskih pristaniščih s poudarkom na Luki Koper. Oprema je sestavni del modula za napovedovanje, ki bi lahko ... izboljšal pravilnost odločanja pristaniških oblasti glede bodočih investicij v infrastrukturo. Poleg tega bi modul lahko pripomorel tudi k boljšemu planiranju in izvajanju operativnih aktivnosti, ter k večji optimizaciji oodločanja glede uporabe pristaniških zmogljivosti tako na operativnem, taktičnem, kot tudi strateškem nivoju odločanja. Razviti modul je koncipiran tako, da lahko napoveduje bodoči pretovor kontejnerjev za tki. združenje NAPA Severno-Jadranskih pristanišč (North Adriatic Ports Association), ki vključuje pristanišča: Koper, Rijeka, Trst in Benetke. Modul dobi na svoj vhod pretekle historične podatke o pretovoru, na osnovi katerih se potem lahko uporabi za napovedovanje eden naslednjih predikcijskih modelov: ARIMA model, Holt-Wintersov model, ali Dekompozicijski model. Razviti algoritem v programu omogoča tudi optimalno določitev strukture modelov, ter ustrezno ocenjevanje njihovih parametrov. Prav tako je zagotovljena ustrezna validacija predikcijskih modelov. Modeli dosegajo zelo solidno točnost napovedovanja glede bodočih trendov pretovora, kar še posebej velja za ARIMA model. Slednji namreč lahko napove poleg splošnega trenda tudi zmerne spremembe v dinamiki časovne vrste bodočega pretovora kontejnerjev. Rezultati, pridobljeni s pomočjo razvite programske opreme, so bili predstavljeni tudi na konferencah IAME 2014 in ICLST 2014 v prispevkih: A comparison of methods for forecasting the container throughput in North Adriatic ports, ter: Forecasting the container throughput in the Port of Koper using time series ARIMA model.Type of material - computer CD, DVD, USB ; adult, seriousPublication and manufacture - [Celje] : Fakulteta za logistiko, 2014Language - slovenianCOBISS.SI-ID - 512786493
Author
Dragan, Dejan |
Intihar, Marko
Topics
napovedovanje |
pretovor kontejnerjev |
pristanišča |
logistika |
Luka Koper |
računalniški programi
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Database name | Field | Year |
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Links to authors' personal bibliographies | Links to information on researchers in the SICRIS system |
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Dragan, Dejan | 14655 |
Intihar, Marko | 36109 |
Source: Personal bibliographies
and: SICRIS
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