Faculty of Economics and Business, Maribor (EPF)
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Kreditno tveganje in zahtevan donos na državne obveznice po nastopu finančne krize 2009 - 2014Križanič, France, 1954- ; Oplotnik, Žan ; Kolšek, VasjaNarodnogospodarski rezultati pojasnjujejo velik del spreminjanja donosa državnih obveznic v svetu. Ocenjeno na vzorcu 23-tih držav s štirimi milijardami prebivalstva, nato pa med njimi še ločeno za ... velike države, razvite države ali pa izbrane članice EU, obstaja statistično signifikantna povezava med spreminjanjem donosa državnih obveznic in spremembami BDP, tekočega računa plačilne bilance, obrestne mere centralnih bank in javnofinančnega ravnotežja. Pri gospodarsko razvitih državah je v pojasnitvi sprememb donosa državnih obveznic statistično signifikanten tudi vpliv spreminjanja borznega indeksa, pri članicah EU pa je bil v pojasnitvi spreminjanja donosa državnih obveznic v obdobju 2009 - 2014 statistično značilen negativni časovni trend. V obdobju 2010 - 2014 je bil vpliv konjunkture (spreminjanje BDP) ter inflacije na donos državnih obveznic zelo majhen, precejšen pa je bil učinek spreminjanja obrestnih mer centralne banke. Večje negativne spremembe v gospodarskem okolju ne vodijo v bistveno povečanje donosa državnih obveznic zaradi ocenjene spremembe kreditnega tveganja. Vpliv pri porušenem javnofinančnem ravnotežju (za 5% BDP) dosega 1 odstotno točko, pri porušenem zunanjem ravnotežju (prav tako za 5% BDP) pa 0.5 odstotne točke donosa državnih obveznic. Skok obrestnih mer centralne banke za 5 odstotnih točk pa lahko vpliva na povečanje zahtevanega donosa za 3 odstotne točke.Source: Gospodarska gibanja. - ISSN 0351-0360 (Št. 480, 2015, str. 32-47)Type of material - article, component part ; adult, seriousPublish date - 2015Language - slovenianCOBISS.SI-ID - 12094748
Author
Križanič, France, 1954- |
Oplotnik, Žan |
Kolšek, Vasja
Topics
državne obveznice |
donosnost |
kreditno tveganje
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Database name | Field | Year |
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Links to authors' personal bibliographies | Links to information on researchers in the SICRIS system |
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Križanič, France, 1954- | 09744 |
Oplotnik, Žan | 19448 |
Kolšek, Vasja | ![]() |
Source: Personal bibliographies
and: SICRIS
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