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Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Ljubljana (FGGLJ)
  • Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments
    Bertola, Miriam ...
    Megafoods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional ... information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these foods well because of limited data on megafoods, and because food generation processes of extremes difer from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafoods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafoods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous foods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafoods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar food generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.
    Source: Nature geoscience. - ISSN 1752-0894 (Vol. 16, Nov. 2023, str. 1-19)
    Type of material - article, component part ; adult, serious
    Publish date - 2023
    Language - english
    COBISS.SI-ID - 171320323

    Link(s):

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01300-5
    DOI

source: Nature geoscience. - ISSN 1752-0894 (Vol. 16, Nov. 2023, str. 1-19)

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