•We analyze impacts of participation in supermarket channels on farm household nutrition.•Use of data from Kenyan vegetable farmers and models to control for selection bias.•Supermarket participation ...improves calorie and micronutrient consumption.•Impacts occur through different pathways, including income, specialization, and gender.•Methods also useful for other studies to better understand agriculture-nutrition linkages.
Many developing countries experience a food system transformation with a rapid growth of supermarkets. We analyze impacts of supermarkets on farm household nutrition with survey data from Kenya. Participation in supermarket channels is associated with significantly higher calorie, vitamin A, iron, and zinc consumption. We use simultaneous equation models to analyze impact pathways. Supermarket-supplying households have higher incomes, a higher share of land under vegetables, and a higher likelihood of male control of revenues. Furthermore, income and the share of land under vegetables have positive impacts, while male control of revenues has negative impacts on dietary quality. Policy and further research implications are discussed.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
In low potential agricultural areas like the Honduran hillsides characterized by soil degradation and erosion, organic agriculture can provide a means to break the downward spiral of resource ...degradation and poverty. We use original survey data to analyze the factors influencing the decision to convert to organic agriculture. Previous studies have emphasized the role of spatial patterns in the diffusion and adoption of agricultural technologies in general and organic agriculture in particular. These spatial patterns can result from a variety of underlying factors. In this article we test various potential explanations, including the availability of information in the farmer's neighborhood, social conformity concerns and perceived positive external effects of the adoption decision, in a spatially explicit adoption model. We find that farmers who believe to act in accordance with their neighbors' expectations and with greater availability of information in their neighborhood network are more likely to adopt organic agriculture. Furthermore, perceived positive productivity spillovers to neighboring plots decrease the probability of adoption. We discuss the implications of our findings for the dissemination of sustainable agricultural technologies in low-potential agricultural areas in developing countries.
•We use a spatial probit model to analyze determinants of organic agriculture uptake.•Neighborhood effects are found to be positive and significant.•Access to information – direct and through the neighborhood – plays crucial role.•Social conformity has a positive influence on adoption.•Perceived productivity effects on neighboring plots delay adoption decision.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
In many developing countries, supermarkets are expanding rapidly. This affects farmers' marketing options. Previous studies have analyzed welfare effects of smallholder participation in supermarket ...channels from a static perspective, using cross-section data. We develop a conceptual framework and use panel data to better understand participation and impact dynamics. The analysis focuses on vegetable producers in Kenya. Participation in supermarket channels is associated with income gains. However, many farmers have dropped out of the supermarket channel due to various constraints. The initial income gains cannot be sustained when returning to the traditional market. Organizational support may be needed to avoid widening income disparities.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Projections of future surface ozone over Europe conducted utilizing chemistry transport models (CTMs) coupled to climate models differ greatly, even in sign. CTM sensitivity studies were conducted in ...order to investigate the importance of changes in natural isoprene emissions and dry deposition to vegetation, both coupled to meteorology. This knowledge can be used to improve surface ozone projections. Our simulations suggest climate change over Europe would cause changes in surface ozone between −4.0 to +13 ppb(v) on average (April–September) and −3.5 to +25 ppb(v) on average (April–September) daily maximum from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100. The change is positive in the southwest and negative in the north. The isoprene emissions increased by a factor of about 1.8 from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100. A rescaling of isoprene emissions shows that the large increase in isoprene emission is of importance (0–30% of the change in surface ozone) in central, southern, and western Europe. The use of a formulation for ozone dry deposition to vegetation, dependent on meteorology, and changes in snow cover, affecting the dry deposition, are more important processes. The changes in dry deposition to vegetation (not including changes in aerodynamic resistance) explain up to 80% of the surface ozone change in Spain. Therefore it is vital to include meteorological dependence for dry deposition of ozone to vegetation in surface ozone projections. Isoprene emissions are of less importance, but they are nonnegligible and should definitely be emitted online in climate ozone projection studies.
We model the economic incentives surrounding opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. Specifically, we examine the impact of eradication policies when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit, and ...when the crops are cultivated in sharecropping arrangements. The analysis suggests that when perfect credit markets are available, an increased risk of eradication will lead to less land being allocated to opium poppy. However, when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit, an eradication policy can rather increase land under poppy cultivation. Furthermore, the unintended effects of eradication can be augmented in sharecropping arrangements.
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Climate change is expected to increase to extreme temperatures and lead to more intense formation of near-surface ozone. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress and ozone is a highly oxidative ...pollutant; both increase cardiorespiratory mortality. Using greenhouse gas and ozone precursor emission scenarios, global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models, epidemiological data, and population projections, we projected ozone- and heat-related health risks under a changing climate. European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model. Two periods were compared: recent climate in 1991-2000 and future climate in 2046-2055, projecting around a 2° increase in global temperatures by that time. Projections of premature mortality considered future climate, future population, and future emissions separately and jointly to understand the relative importance of their contributions. Ozone currently causes 55 000 premature deaths annually in Europe due to long-term exposure, including a proportion of the estimated 26 000 deaths per year due to short-term exposures. When only taking into account the impact of a changing climate, up to an 11% increase in ozone-associated mortality is expected in some countries in Central and Southern Europe in 2050. However, projected decreases in ozone precursor emissions are expected to result in a decrease in ozone-related mortality (−30% as EU average). Due to aging and increasingly susceptible populations, the decrease in 2050 would be smaller, up to −24%. During summer months, ozone risks could combine with increasing temperatures, especially during the hottest periods and in densely populated urban areas. While the heat burden is currently of the same order of magnitude as ozone, due to increasing temperatures and decreasing ozone precursor emissions, heat-related mortality could be twice as large as ozone-related mortality in 2050.
Abstract
Preterm birth is the largest contributor to neonatal mortality globally and it is also associated with several adverse health outcomes. Recent studies have found an association between ...maternal exposure to air pollution and an increased risk for preterm birth. As a constituent of air pollution, ozone is a highly reactive molecule with several negative health effects when present near earth’s surface. This health impact assessment aims to estimate the proportion of preterm births—in current and future situations—attributable to maternal ozone exposure in 30 European countries (EU30). A literature search was performed using relevant keywords, followed by meta-analysis with STATA software in which five studies investigating exposure-response relationship of interest were included. The attributable proportion, and number of cases, was modelled with the software AirQ+ against current and future European ozone concentrations. According to our meta-analysis, the relative risk for giving birth preterm was calculated to 1.027 (95% CI 1.009–1.046) per 10
μ
g m
−3
increase in ozone concentration. This rendered 7.1% (95% CI 2.5–11.7) of preterm births attributable to maternal ozone exposure to in EU30 during 2010, which is equal to approximately 27 900 cases. By 2050, the projected decrease in ozone precursor emissions rendered an estimated 30% decrease of ozone attributable preterm births. Not taking emission change into account, due to climate change the ozone-related preterm birth burden might slightly increase by 2050 in Central and Southern Europe, and decrease in Eastern and Northern Europe. In summation, these numbers make a substantial impact on public health.
We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990–2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model ...(CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using retrospective variational data analysis. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance over the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyses, we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the distribution of the near-surface O3 concentrations, focusing on the linear trend over the 24-year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is reflected in observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the CTM we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three factors: change in hemispheric background concentrations, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions. The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three factors, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by European O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modeled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilized emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.
Effort to control dengue transmission requires community participation to ensure its sustainability. We carried out a knowledge attitude and practice (KAP) survey of dengue prevention to inform the ...design of a vector control intervention. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in June⁻August 2014 among 521 households in two villages of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Demographic characteristics and KAP questions were asked using a self-managed questionnaire. Knowledge, attitudes and practice scores were summarized for the population according to sex, age, occupation and education. The average knowledge score was rather poor-3.7 out of 8-although both attitude and practice scores were good: 25.5 out of 32 and 9.2 out of 11 respectively. The best knowledge within the different groups were found among women, the age group 30⁻44 years, people with a university degree and government employees. Best practice scores were found among retired people and housewives. There were several significant gaps in knowledge with respect to basic dengue symptoms, preventive practices and biting and breeding habits of the
mosquito. In contrast, people's practices were considered good, although many respondents failed to recognize outdoor containers as mosquito breeding sites. Accordingly, we developed a vector control card to support people's container cleaning practices. The card was assessed for eight consecutive weeks in 2015, with pre-post larvae positive houses and containers as primary outcome measures. The use of control cards reached a low engagement of the community. Despite ongoing campaigns aiming to engage the community in dengue prevention, knowledge levels were meagre and adherence to taught routines poor in many societal groups. To increase motivation levels, bottom-up strategies are needed to involve all community members in dengue control, not only those that already comply with best practices.
This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM
2.5) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe ...during 1997–2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared.
WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM
2.5 and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM
2.5 is much higher (43% of total PPM
2.5) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM
2.5 is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM
2.5 concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM
2.5 and SIA in Europe.
The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301 000 per year due to PPM
2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM
2.5 components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM
2.5). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.
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