Infectious diseases are strong drivers of wildlife population dynamics, however, empirical analyses from the early stages of pathogen emergence are rare. Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), ...discovered in 1996, provides the opportunity to study an epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern‐oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. We estimate the wild devil population peaked at 53 000 in 1996, less than half of previous estimates. DFTD spread rapidly through high‐density areas, with spread velocity slowing in areas of low host densities. By 2020, DFTD occupied >90% of the species' range, causing 82% declines in local densities and reducing the total population to 16 900. Encouragingly, our model forecasts the population decline should level‐off within the next decade, supporting conservation management focused on facilitating evolution of resistance and tolerance.
Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) provides the opportunity to study an emerging epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern‐oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. The spatial spread of DFTD was most rapid through high‐density areas, causing 82% local declines in density and reducing the wild population to just ~16 900 individuals.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
We make use of sensitive (9.3
μ
Jy beam
−1
rms) 1.2 mm continuum observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) Spectroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra-Deep Field ...(ASPECS) large program to probe dust-enshrouded star formation from 1362 Lyman-break galaxies spanning the redshift range
z
= 1.5–10 (to ∼7–28
M
⊙
yr
−1
at 4
σ
over the entire range). We find that the fraction of ALMA-detected galaxies in our
z
= 1.5–10 samples increases steeply with stellar mass, with the detection fraction rising from 0% at 10
9.0
M
⊙
to
% at >10
10
M
⊙
. Moreover, on stacking all 1253 low-mass (<10
9.25
M
⊙
) galaxies over the ASPECS footprint, we find a mean continuum flux of −0.1 ± 0.4
μ
Jy beam
−1
, implying a hard upper limit on the obscured star formation rate of <0.6
M
⊙
yr
−1
(4
σ
) in a typical low-mass galaxy. The correlation between the infrared excess (IRX) of UV-selected galaxies (
L
IR
/
L
UV
) and the UV-continuum slope is also seen in our ASPECS data and shows consistency with a Calzetti-like relation at >
and an SMC-like relation at lower masses. Using stellar mass and
β
measurements for
z
∼ 2 galaxies over the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey, we derive a new empirical relation between
β
and stellar mass and then use this correlation to show that our IRX–
β
and IRX–stellar mass relations are consistent with each other. We then use these constraints to express the IRX as a bivariate function of
β
and stellar mass. Finally, we present updated estimates of star formation rate density determinations at
z
> 3, leveraging present improvements in the measured IRX and recent probes of ultraluminous far-IR galaxies at
z
> 2.
We report the first detailed measurement of the shape of the CO luminosity function at high redshift, based on >320 hr of the NSF's Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) observations over an area of ...∼60 arcmin2 taken as part of the CO Luminosity Density at High Redshift (COLDz) survey. COLDz "blindly" selects galaxies based on their cold gas content through CO(J = 1 → 0) emission at z ∼ 2-3 and CO(J = 2 → 1) at z ∼ 5-7 down to a CO luminosity limit of log( /K km s−1 pc2) 9.5. We find that the characteristic luminosity and bright end of the CO luminosity function are substantially higher than predicted by semi-analytical models, but consistent with empirical estimates based on the infrared luminosity function at z ∼ 2. We also present the currently most reliable measurement of the cosmic density of cold gas in galaxies at early epochs, i.e., the cold gas history of the universe, as determined over a large cosmic volume of ∼375,000 Mpc3. Our measurements are in agreement with an increase of the cold gas density from z ∼ 0 to z ∼ 2-3, followed by a possible decline toward z ∼ 5-7. These findings are consistent with recent surveys based on higher-J CO line measurements, upon which COLDz improves in terms of statistical uncertainties by probing ∼50-100 times larger areas and in the reliability of total gas mass estimates by probing the low-J CO lines accessible to the VLA. Our results thus appear to suggest that the cosmic star formation rate density follows an increased cold molecular gas content in galaxies toward its peak about 10 billion years ago, and that its decline toward the earliest epochs is likely related to a lower overall amount of cold molecular gas (as traced by CO) bound in galaxies toward the first billion years after the Big Bang.
We use the results from the ALMA large program ASPECS, the spectroscopic survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF), to constrain CO luminosity functions of galaxies and the resulting redshift ...evolution of (H2). The broad frequency range covered enables us to identify CO emission lines of different rotational transitions in the HUDF at z > 1. We find strong evidence that the CO luminosity function evolves with redshift, with the knee of the CO luminosity function decreasing in luminosity by an order of magnitude from ∼2 to the local universe. Based on Schechter fits, we estimate that our observations recover the majority (up to ∼90%, depending on the assumptions on the faint end) of the total cosmic CO luminosity at z = 1.0-3.1. After correcting for CO excitation, and adopting a Galactic CO-to-H2 conversion factor, we constrain the evolution of the cosmic molecular gas density (H2): this cosmic gas density peaks at z ∼ 1.5 and drops by a factor of to the value measured locally. The observed evolution in (H2), therefore, closely matches the evolution of the cosmic star formation rate density SFR. We verify the robustness of our result with respect to assumptions on source inclusion and/or CO excitation. As the cosmic star formation history can be expressed as the product of the star formation efficiency and the cosmic density of molecular gas, the similar evolution of (H2) and SFR leaves only little room for a significant evolution of the average star formation efficiency in galaxies since z ∼ 3 (85% of cosmic history).
ABSTRACT
We report 18 dust continuum detections (≥3.3σ) at ∼88 and 158 $\mu{\rm m}$ out of 49 ultraviolet (UV)-bright galaxies (MUV < −21.3 mag) at $z$ > 6.5, observed by the Cycle-7 Atacama Large ...Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) Large Program, Reionization-Era Bright Emission Line Survey (REBELS) and its pilot programs. This has more than tripled the number of dust continuum detections known at $z$ > 6.5. Out of these 18 detections, 12 are reported for the first time as part of REBELS. In addition, 15 of the dust continuum detected galaxies also show a C ii$_{\rm 158\,{\rm \mu m}}$ emission line, providing us with accurate redshifts. We anticipate more line emission detections from six targets (including three continuum detected targets) where observations are still ongoing. We estimate that all of the sources have an infrared (IR) luminosity (LIR) in a range of $3\!-\!8 \times 10^{11}\, {\rm L_\odot }$, except for one with $L_{\rm IR} = 1.5^{+0.8}_{-0.5} \times 10^{12}\, \, {\rm L_{\odot }}$. Their fraction of obscured star formation is significant at ${\gtrsim} 50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, despite being UV-selected galaxies. Some of the dust continuum detected galaxies show spatial offsets (∼0.5–1.5 arcsec) between the rest-UV and far-IR emission peaks. These separations could imply spatially decoupled phases of obscured and unobscured star formation, but a higher spatial resolution observation is required to confirm this. REBELS offers the best available statistical constraints on obscured star formation in UV-luminous galaxies at $z$ > 6.5.
We report Atacama Large Millimeter Array observations of the neutral atomic carbon transitions C i and multiple CO lines in a sample of ∼30 main-sequence galaxies at , including novel information on ...C i and CO for 7 of such normal objects. We complement our observations with a collection of >200 galaxies with coverage of similar transitions, spanning the z = 0-4 redshift interval and a variety of ambient conditions from local to high-redshift starbursts. We find systematic variations in the C i/IR and C i/high-Jupper (Jupper = 7) CO luminosity ratios among the various samples. We interpret these differences as increased dense molecular gas fractions and star formation efficiencies in the strongest high-redshift starbursts with respect to normal main-sequence galaxies. We further report constant / ratios across the galaxy populations and redshifts, suggesting that gas temperatures Texc traced by C i do not strongly vary. We find only a mild correlation with Tdust and that, generally, Texc Tdust. We fit the line ratios with classical photodissociation region models, retrieving consistently larger densities and intensities of the UV radiation fields in submillimeter galaxies than in main-sequence and local objects. However, these simple models fall short in representing the complexity of a multiphase interstellar medium and should be treated with caution. Finally, we compare our observations with the Santa Cruz semi-analytical model of galaxy evolution, recently extended to simulate submillimeter emission. While we confirm the success in reproducing the CO lines, we find systematically larger C i luminosities at fixed IR luminosity than predicted theoretically. This highlights the necessity of improving our understanding of the mechanisms regulating the C i emission on galactic scales. We release our data compilation to the community.
We present the first results of an Atacama Large Millimeter Array survey of the lower fine-structure line of atomic carbon C i in far-infrared-selected galaxies on the main sequence at z ∼ 1.2 in the ...COSMOS field. We compare our sample with a comprehensive compilation of data available in the literature for local and high-redshift starbursting systems and quasars. We show that the C i (3P1 → 3P0) luminosity correlates on global scales with the infrared luminosity , similar to low-J CO transitions. We report a systematic variation of / as a function of the galaxy type, with the ratio being larger for main-sequence galaxies than for starbursts and submillimeter galaxies at fixed . The / and / mass ratios are similar for main-sequence galaxies and for local and high-redshift starbursts within a 0.2 dex intrinsic scatter, suggesting that C i is a good tracer of molecular gas mass as CO and dust. We derive a fraction of of the total carbon mass in the atomic neutral phase. Moreover, we estimate the neutral atomic carbon abundance, the fundamental ingredient to calibrate C i as a gas tracer, by comparing and available gas masses from CO lines and dust emission. We find lower C i abundances in main-sequence galaxies than in starbursting systems and submillimeter galaxies as a consequence of the canonical CO and gas-to-dust conversion factors. This argues against the application to different galaxy populations of a universal standard C i abundance derived from highly biased samples.
We investigate the CO excitation and interstellar medium (ISM) conditions in a cold gas mass-selected sample of 22 star-forming galaxies at z = 0.46-3.60, observed as part of the ALMA Spectroscopic ...Survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (ASPECS). Combined with Very Large Array follow-up observations, we detect a total of 34 CO transitions with J = 1 up to 8 (and an additional 21 upper limits, up to J = 10) and 6 and transitions (and 12 upper limits). The CO(2-1) and CO(3-2)-selected galaxies, at and 2.5, respectively, exhibit a range in excitation in their mid-J = 4, 5 and high-J = 7, 8 lines, on average lower than ( -brighter) BzK-color- and submillimeter-selected galaxies at similar redshifts. The former implies that a warm ISM component is not necessarily prevalent in gas mass-selected galaxies at . We use stacking and Large Velocity Gradient models to measure and predict the average CO ladders at z < 2 and z ≥ 2, finding and , respectively. From the models, we infer that the galaxies at z ≥ 2 have intrinsically higher excitation than those at z < 2. This fits a picture in which the global excitation is driven by an increase in the star formation rate surface density of galaxies with redshift. We derive a neutral atomic carbon abundance of , comparable to the Milky Way and main-sequence galaxies at similar redshifts, and fairly high densities (≥104 cm−3), consistent with the low-J CO excitation. Our results imply a decrease in the cosmic molecular gas mass density at z ≥ 2 compared to previous ASPECS measurements.
We report the detection of CO(J = 2 → 1) emission from three massive dusty starburst galaxies at z > 5 through molecular line scans in the NSF's Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) CO Luminosity ...Density at High Redshift (COLDz) survey. Redshifts for two of the sources, HDF 850.1 (z = 5.183) and AzTEC-3 (z = 5.298), were previously known. We revise a previous redshift estimate for the third source GN10 (z = 5.303), which we have independently confirmed through detections of CO J = 1 → 0, 5 → 4, 6 → 5, and C ii 158 m emission with the VLA and the NOrthern Extended Milllimeter Array. We find that two currently independently confirmed CO sources in COLDz are "optically dark", and that three of them are dust-obscured galaxies at z > 5. Given our survey area of ∼60 arcmin2, our results appear to imply a ∼6-55 times higher space density of such distant dusty systems within the first billion years after the Big Bang than previously thought. At least two of these z > 5 galaxies show star formation rate surface densities consistent with so-called "maximum" starbursts, but we find significant differences in CO excitation between them. This result may suggest that different fractions of the massive gas reservoirs are located in the dense, star-forming nuclear regions-consistent with the more extended sizes of the C ii emission compared to the dust continuum and higher C ii-to-far-infrared luminosity ratios in those galaxies with lower gas excitation. We thus find substantial variations in the conditions for star formation between z > 5 dusty starbursts, which typically have dust temperatures that are ∼57% 25% warmer than starbursts at z = 2-3 due to their enhanced star formation activity.
ABSTRACT
Cosmic dust is an essential component shaping both the evolution of galaxies and their observational signatures. How quickly dust builds up in the early Universe remains an open question ...that requires deep observations at (sub-)millimetre wavelengths to resolve. Here, we use Atacama Large Millimeter Array observations of 45 galaxies from the Reionization Era Bright Emission Line Survey (REBELS) and its pilot programs, designed to target C ii and dust emission in UV-selected galaxies at z ∼ 7, to investigate the dust content of high-redshift galaxies through a stacking analysis. We find that the typical fraction of obscured star formation fobs = SFRIR/SFRUV+IR depends on stellar mass, similar to what is observed at lower redshift, and ranges from fobs ≈ 0.3 − 0.6 for galaxies with log10(M⋆/M⊙) = 9.4–10.4. We further adopt the z ∼ 7 stellar mass function from the literature to extract the obscured cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD) from the REBELS survey. Our results suggest only a modest decrease in the SFRD between 3 ≲ z ≲ 7, with dust-obscured star formation still contributing ${\sim}30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at z ∼ 7. While we extensively discuss potential caveats, our analysis highlights the continued importance of dust-obscured star formation even well into the epoch of reionization.
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