Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems can make a significant contribution to Europe's energy transition. Realising this potential raises challenges at policy and electricity system planning level. ...To address this, the authors have developed a geospatially explicit methodology using up-to-date spatial information of the EU building stock to quantify the available rooftop area for PV systems. To do this, it combines satellite-based and statistical data sources with machine learning to provide a reliable assessment of the technical potential for rooftop PV electricity production with a spatial resolution of 100 m across the European Union (EU). It estimates the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) using country-specific parameters and compares it to the latest household electricity prices. The results show that the EU rooftops could potentially produce 680 TWh of solar electricity annually (representing 24.4% of current electricity consumption), two thirds of which at a cost lower than the current residential tariffs. Country aggregated results illustrate existing barriers for cost-effective rooftop systems in countries with low electricity prices and high investment interest rates, as well as provide indications on how to address these.
•An innovative method combines geospatial/statistical data to create raster of technical potential of solar rooftop in the EU.•Different datasets and sources are integrated to estimate the available rooftop area.•In many EU Member States, the levelised solar electricity can be produced at a lower cost than retail electricity prices.•Economic drivers (e.g. different weighted average cost of capital, retail electricity prices) outweigh technical factors.•Rooftop systems could cover up to 24.4% of the EU electricity consumption (based on 2016 levels).
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Key global energy, environmental and sustainability targets are closely related to the development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). This includes reduction of Greenhouse Gas emissions and safe ...energy provision in a sustainable manner. The integration of RES in the energy mix needs to overcome the technical challenges that are related to grid's operation. Therefore, there is an increasing need to explore approaches where different RES will operate under a synergetic approach. A straightforward way to achieve that is by optimizing the complementarity among RES systems both over time and spatially. The present article developed a methodology that examines the degree of time complementarity between small hydropower stations (SHPS) and adjacent solar PV systems (SPVS). The methodology builds on an optimization algorithm that associates hydrological with solar irradiation information. In particularly, the algorithm examines possible alterations on the PV system installation (azimuth, tilt) that increase the complementarity, with minor compromises in the total solar energy output. The methodology has been tested in a case study and the outcome indicated that a compromise of 10% in the solar energy output (90% threshold) may result in a significant increase of the complementarity (66.4%).
•We explained and analyzed the need for increased complementarity between Renewable Energy systems.•We developed a methodology that assesses the complementarity between small hydropower and solar PV systems.•An optimization algorithm was developed to maximize complementarity, with small compromises in the solar energy output.•The algorithm uses cloud-based information available online in PVGIS platform (developed in our Institute).•In the case study the complementarity increased by 66.4%, with 10% compromise in solar energy production.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Identifying and evaluating the driving forces that are behind land use and land cover changes remains one of the most difficult exercises that geographers and environmental scientists must ...continually address. The difficulty emerges from the fact that in land use and land cover systems, multiple actions and interactions between different factors (e.g., economic, political, environmental, biophysical, institutional, and cultural) come into play and make it difficult to understand how the processes behind the changes function. Using advanced methods, such as Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the results highlight that these tools are adequate in formalising knowledge regarding land use systems in cross-border regions. Moreover, because modelling land use changes using big data is gaining increasing popularity, ANN techniques could contribute to improving the calibration of cellular automata-based land use models.
•Land use is modelled using artificial intelligence methods.•Land use changes in a cross border region are examined.•The difficulty of modelling big land use data is shown.•The difficulty of calibrating a CA-Based ANN model is demonstrated.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Small hydropower plants (installed power below 10 MW) are generally considered less impacting than larger plants, and this has stimulated their rapid spread, with a developing potential that is not ...exhausted yet. However, since they can cause environmental impacts, especially in case of cascade installations, there is the need to operate them in a more sustainable way, e.g. considering ecosystem needs and by developing low-impacting technologies. In this paper, an assessment was conducted to estimate how the environmental flow and the plant spatial density affect the small hydropower potential (considering run-of-river schemes, diversion type, DROR) in the European Union. The potential of DROR is 79 TWh/y under the strictest environmental constraints considered, and 1,710 TWh/y under the laxest constraints. The potential of low-impacting micro technologies (< 100 kW) was also assessed, showing that the economic potential of hydrokinetic turbines in rivers is 1.2 TWh/y, that of water wheels in old mills is 1.6 TWh/y, and the hydropower potential of water and wastewater networks is 3.1 TWh/y, at an average investment cost of 5,000 €/kW.
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CEKLJ, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
This paper undertakes a comprehensive spatial mapping of the existing energy infrastructure in Kenya. With the perspective of the current energy status and local resources, the study develops a rural ...electrification spatial model for Kenya (RE_RU_KE tool) to identify optimal strategies for the different locations. The model considers the potential of conventional approaches (diesel gensets), clean technologies (solar, wind, hydro mini-grids), hybrid systems and the option of central grid extension to electrify remote areas in Kenya at the lowest possible cost. The model output is contrasted to the national Rural Electrification Master Plan (REM) of Kenya. While both the REM and RE_RU_KE tool target the off-grid rural electrification options, their methodological approaches are intrinsically different. The comparison between both results aims to enable valuable synergies and highlight the potential complementarities that can create added value for stakeholders involved in rural electrification planning. In particular, RE_RU_KE model output highlights the substantial role that renewable energy systems can play in decentralized generation providing universal energy access to rural households at a competitive cost.
•Spatial analysis rural electrification tool for Kenya.•Focus on population without access to electricity covered by off-grid portfolio•Contrast to the Rural Electrification Master Plan in Kenya and the presented tool•Substantial scope for decentralized renewable energy generation in providing universal energy access among rural population
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This paper presents a geographical and computational modelling approach to explore the nonlinear relationship between land use types and geospatial driving factors. It focuses on the dynamism of land ...use characteristics in a cross-border region. The developed model is based on fully integrated Cellular Automata (CA), Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Learning Tree (DLT) model, which is used to define the CA transition rules. Existing literature considers CA as one of the most relevant tools for modelling spatial changes over time, particularly when complex systems such as land use are involved. The literature also highlights that, when CA is combined with other tools, results lead to a better spatial prospect of land use dynamics. Our results reveal how land use is structured around both the transportation system and the border, and how measuring accessibility from different angles using GIS platform permits analysis of the temporal and spatial discontinuity of land use itself, thereby identifying the discontinuity components of land use patterns determined by land use boundaries.
•Land use change is simulated using cellular automata model.•Decision Tree Machine Learning algorithm is used to define the model transition rules.•We discussed land use change in a cross border region.•We discussed the spatial and temporal discontinuity of land use changes.•The role of the accessibility in observed land use structure is examined.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. ...We define flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding. From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J Geophys Res 114:D16108. doi:
10.1029/2008JD011523
,
2009
) discharges with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed damage and population exposure probability functions under present and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD) and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27 as a whole, current EAD of approximately €6.4 billion is projected to amount to €14–21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000 to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty, they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood risk in a changing climate.
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CEKLJ, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Hydrocarbons are traditional subjects to European Union (EU) law (“acquis communitaire”). A short historical review reveals that quasi all aspects of upstream and downstream segments are covered by ...the legislation. The results of applied information extraction and elaborated quantitative analysis indicate that the intensity of legislation making correlates with global drivers such as oil price booms, and technology developments such as extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons by hydraulic fracturing. A quarter of a century after the Hydrocarbons Directive was published and transposed by Member States (MS), data allow us to make a semi-quantitative assessment on the implementation, the major drivers of governments’ publication activity, and the impact on the oil and gas production. Another specific relevance of this study is on non-energy minerals management of the EU, whether the introduction of similar competitive bidding rules would induce a greater interest of investors, and the enhanced competition could bring more benefits to the states by the rejuvenation of the critical minerals extractive sector. The preliminary findings show that in some MS there is a positive correlation between the concession call publication activity and hydrocarbons production. To confirm these conclusions the analysis of an extended dataset including exploration data, investments, and social impacts is needed in order to screen the effect of global market trends, the exhaustion of domestic geological reserves, and the different policy environments.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
The use of coal for electricity generation is the main emitter of Greenhous Gas Emissions worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency, these emissions have to be reduced by more than 70% ...by 2040 to stay on track for the 1.5–2 °C scenario suggested by the Paris Agreement. To ensure a socially fair transition towards the phase-out of coal, the European Commission introduced the Coal Regions in Transition initiative in late 2017. The present paper analyses to what extent the use of photovoltaic electricity generation systems can help with this transition in the coal regions of the European Union (EU). A spatially explicit methodology was developed to assess the solar photovoltaic (PV) potential in selected regions where open-cast coal mines are planned to cease operation in the near future. Different types of solar PV systems were considered including ground-mounted systems developed either on mining land or its surroundings. Furthermore, the installation of rooftop solar PV systems on the existing building stock was also analysed. The obtained results show that the available area in those regions is abundant and that solar PV systems could fully substitute the current electricity generation of coal-fired power plants in the analysed regions.
•The concept of integrating solar photovoltaic systems (SPVS) in water infrastructure.•A methodology to identify favorable dams & canals is developed.•The existing potential on Mediterranean islands ...is analyzed.•The proposed concept offers advantageous terms for renewable energy sources’ (RES) development.•It also contributes to significant irrigation water savings.
Electricity production in Mediterranean islands currently depends heavily on imported fossil fuels. This strategy has several disadvantages and has been accused of hindering the islands’ sustainable development. In the present research an integrated approach to increase solar photovoltaic (PV) systems’ (SPVS) share in the energy mix of Mediterranean islands is presented, through installations on the available surface near existing water infrastructure. Accordingly, we have analyzed the potential of existing dams to accommodate SPVS on their downstream face as well as the option of SPVS over irrigation canals. We processed databases of water infrastructure in five big islands and developed a methodology to identify favorable locations. Using geographic information system (GIS) we processed the technical characteristics of each location and calculated the potential power capacity and the corresponding electricity production. Eleven dams were identified as “first-rate” locations with a total generating capacity of 63MWp, producing 97GWh of electricity annually, while additional 10 dams with less optimal conditions would add 30MW of capacity and 33GWh of annual production. We also identified an additional advantage of placing SPVS over irrigation canals, proposing additional 60MWp capacity, namely the significant water savings through reduced evaporation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
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