Regression discontinuity designs use observational data to examine treatment efficacy. This article uses the example of statin prescription in primary care to explain the concept of the method and ...how it can be used
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BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Objectives
Immuno-oncology (IO) therapies are often associated with delayed responses that are deep and durable, manifesting as long-term survival benefits in patients with metastatic cancer. Complex ...hazard functions arising from IO treatments may limit the accuracy of extrapolations from standard parametric models (SPMs). We evaluated the ability of flexible parametric models (FPMs) to improve survival extrapolations using data from 2 trials involving patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
Methods
Our analyses used consecutive database locks (DBLs) at 2-, 3-, and 5-y minimum follow-up from trials evaluating nivolumab versus docetaxel in patients with pretreated metastatic squamous (CheckMate-017) and nonsquamous (CheckMate-057) NSCLC. For each DBL, SPMs, as well as 3 FPMs—landmark response models (LRMs), mixture cure models (MCMs), and Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES)—were estimated on nivolumab overall survival (OS). The performance of each parametric model was assessed by comparing milestone restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) and survival probabilities with results obtained from externally validated SPMs.
Results
For the 2- and 3-y DBLs of both trials, all models tended to underestimate 5-y OS. Predictions from nonvalidated SPMs fitted to the 2-y DBLs were highly unreliable, whereas extrapolations from FPMs were much more consistent between models fitted to successive DBLs. For CheckMate-017, in which an apparent survival plateau emerges in the 3-y DBL, MCMs fitted to this DBL estimated 5-y OS most accurately (11.6% v. 12.3% observed), and long-term predictions were similar to those from the 5-y validated SPM (20-y RMST: 30.2 v. 30.5 mo). For CheckMate-057, where there is no clear evidence of a survival plateau in the early DBLs, only B-MPES was able to accurately predict 5-y OS (14.1% v. 14.0% observed 3-y DBL).
Conclusions
We demonstrate that the use of FPMs for modeling OS in NSCLC patients from early follow-up data can yield accurate estimates for RMST observed with longer follow-up and provide similar long-term extrapolations to externally validated SPMs based on later data cuts. B-MPES generated reasonable predictions even when fitted to the 2-y DBLs of the studies, whereas MCMs were more reliant on longer-term data to estimate a plateau and therefore performed better from 3 y. Generally, LRM extrapolations were less reliable than those from alternative FPMs and validated SPMs but remained superior to nonvalidated SPMs. Our work demonstrates the potential benefits of using advanced parametric models that incorporate external data sources, such as B-MPES and MCMs, to allow for accurate evaluation of treatment clinical and cost-effectiveness from trial data with limited follow-up.
Highlights
Flexible advanced parametric modeling methods can provide improved survival extrapolations for immuno-oncology cost-effectiveness in health technology assessments from early clinical trial data that better anticipate extended follow-up.
Advantages include leveraging additional observable trial data, the systematic integration of external data, and more detailed modeling of underlying processes.
Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis performed particularly well, with well-matched external data.
Mixture cure models also performed well but may require relatively longer follow-up to identify an emergent plateau, depending on the specific setting.
Landmark response models offered marginal benefits in this scenario and may require greater numbers in each response group and/or increased follow-up to support improved extrapolation within each subgroup.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
Despite a substantial epidemiological literature on the incidence of psychotic disorders in Ireland, no systematic review has previously been undertaken. Such evidence can help inform understanding ...of need for psychosis care.
We conducted a prospectively registered systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42021245891) following PRISMA guidelines. We searched four databases (Medline, PsycInfo, Web of Science, Embase) for papers containing incidence data on non-organic psychotic disorders, in people 16-64 years, published between 1950 and 2021 in the general adult population. We conducted duplicate screening, risk of bias assessments, and extracted data to a standardised template. We undertook a narrative synthesis for each major diagnostic outcome. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted for comparisons with ≥5 incidence rates.
Our search yielded 1975 non-duplicate citations, of which 23 met inclusion criteria, containing incidence data ascertained between 1974 and 2016 (median study quality: 5/8; interquartile range: 4-6). Incidence of all psychotic disorders (
= 4 studies) varied from 22.0 (95%CI: 17.3-28.0) in Dublin to 34.1 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI: 31.0-37.5) in Cavan and Monaghan. The pooled incidence of schizophrenia (
= 6 studies,
= 8 settings) was 20.0 per 100,000 person-years, though with imprecision around this estimate (95%CI: 10.6-37.5;
: 97.6%). Higher rates of most outcomes were observed in men. There was consistent evidence of raised rates in more deprived and fragmented social environments, but no clear pattern by rural-urban status.
Patterns of incidence of psychotic disorders in Ireland are broadly consistent with the wider literature from the Global North. Findings could help identify populations at higher risk of psychosis in Ireland.
Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) clones are characterized by loss of a critical region in 13q14.3, (del(13)(q14)) involving the microRNA (miRNA) cluster miR-15a and miR-16-1. We have investigated ...the effects of replacement of miR-15a and miR-16-1. CLL cells transfected with these miRNA mimics exhibited a decrease in cell viability in vitro and impaired capacity for engraftment and growth in NOD/Shi-scid,γcnull (NSG) mice. No synergistic effects were observed when the two miRNA mimics were combined. The phenomena were not restricted to CLL with the del(13)(q14) lesion. Similar effects induced by miRNA mimics were seen in cells with additional chromosomal abnormalities with the exception of certain CLL clones harboring TP53 alterations. Administration of miRNA mimics to NSG mice previously engrafted with CLL clones resulted in substantial tumor regression. CLL cell transfection with miR-15a and miR-16-1-specific inhibitors resulted in increased cell viability in vitro and in an enhanced capacity of the engrafted cells to grow in NSG mice generating larger splenic nodules. These data demonstrate that the strong control by miR-15a and miR-16-1 on CLL clonal expansion is exerted also at the level of full-blown leukemia and provide indications for a miRNA-based therapeutic strategy.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Abstract
The design of an experiment on the spontaneous crystallization of a laser-cooled, but thermal atomic cloud into a hexagonally structured phase is discussed. Atomic interaction is mediated by ...the dipole potential of an optical lattice formed spontaneously in a multi-mode degenerate cavity from single-mode longitudinal pumping. The length scale of the structure is given by the diffractive dephasing between the spontaneous sidebands and the on-axis pump. A linear stability indicates that the transition can be observed in a cavity of moderate finesse compatible with having the cavity mirrors outside the vacuum cell. A new anti-reflection coated cell has been assembled for this purpose.
Bowel cancer is a serious health burden and its early diagnosis improves survival. The Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) in England screens with the Faecal Occult Blood test (FOBt), followed by ...colonoscopy for individuals with a positive test result. Socioeconomic inequalities have been demonstrated for FOBt uptake, but it is not known whether they persist at the next stage of the screening pathway. The aim of this study was to assess the association between colonoscopy uptake and area socioeconomic deprivation, controlling for individual age and sex, and area ethnic diversity, population density, poor self-assessed health, and region.
Logistic regression analysis of colonoscopy uptake using BCSP data for England between 2006 and 2009 for 24 180 adults aged between 60 and 69 years.
Overall colonoscopy uptake was 88.4%. Statistically significant variation in uptake is found between quintiles of area deprivation (ranging from 86.4 to 89.5%), as well as age and sex groups (87.9-89.1%), quintiles of poor self-assessed health (87.5-89.5%), non-white ethnicity (84.6-90.6%) and population density (87.9-89.3%), and geographical regions (86.4-90%).
Colonoscopy uptake is high. The variation in uptake by socioeconomic deprivation is small, as is variation by subgroups of age and sex, poor self-assessed health, ethnic diversity, population density, and region.
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DOBA, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Objectives: In the IMPACT trial (NCT02164513), triple therapy with fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) showed clinical benefit compared with dual therapy with either FF/VI or ...UMEC/VI in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We used data from IMPACT to determine whether this translated into differences in COPD-related healthcare resource utilization (HRU) costs in a United Kingdom (UK) setting. Methods: In a within-trial analysis, individual patient data from the IMPACT intention-to-treat (ITT) population were analyzed to estimate rates of COPD-related HRU with FF/UMEC/VI, FF/VI, or UMEC/VI. A Bayesian approach was applied to address issues typically encountered with this kind of data, namely data missing due to early study withdrawal, subjects with zero reported HRU, and skewness. Rates of HRU were estimated under alternate assumptions of data being missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR). UK-specific unit costs were then applied to estimated HRU rates to calculate treatment-specific costs. Results: Under each MNAR scenario, per patient per year (PPPY) rates of COPD- related HRU were lowest amongst those patients who received treatment with FF/UMEC/VI compared with those receiving either FF/VI or UMEC/VI. Although absolute HRU rates and costs were typically higher for all treatment groups under MNAR scenarios versus MAR, final economic conclusions were robust to patient withdrawals. Conclusions: PPPY rates were typically lower with FF/UMEC/VI versus FF/VI or UMEC/VI. Keywords: single-inhaler triple therapy, COPD, healthcare resource use, cost
The purpose of our study was to determine whether a three-dimensional (3D) isotropic resolution fast spin echo sequence (FSE-cube) has similar image quality and diagnostic performance to a routine ...MRI protocol for brachial plexus evaluation in volunteers and symptomatic patients at 3.0 T. Institutional review board approval and written informed consent were guaranteed.
In this prospective study FSE-cube was added to the standard brachial plexus examination protocol in eight patients (mean age, 50.2 years) with brachial plexus pathologies and in six volunteers (mean age, 54 years). Nerve visibility, tissue contrast, edge sharpness, image blurring, motion artefact and acquisition time were calculated for FSE-cube sequences and for the standard protocol on a standardised five-point scale. The visibility of brachial plexus nerve and surrounding tissues at four levels (roots, interscalene area, costoclavicular space and axillary level) was assessed.
Image quality and nerve visibility did not significantly differ between FSE-cube and the standard protocol (p>0.05). Acquisition time was statistically and clinically significantly shorter with FSE-cube (p<0.05). Pathological findings were seen equally well with FSE-cube and the standard protocol.
3D FSE-cube provided similar image quality in a shorter acquisition time and enabled excellent visualisation of brachial plexus anatomy and pathology in any orientation, regardless of the original scanning plane.
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