Insofar as slip in an earthquake is related to the strain accumulated near a fault since a previous earthquake, and this process repeats many times, the earthquake cycle approximates an autonomous ...oscillator. Its asymmetric slow accumulation of strain and rapid release is quite unlike the harmonic motion of a pendulum and need not be time predictable, but still resembles a class of repeating systems known as integrate‐and‐fire oscillators, whose behavior has been shown to demonstrate a remarkable ability to synchronize to either external or self‐organized forcing. Given sufficient time and even very weak physical coupling, the phases of sets of such oscillators, with similar though not necessarily identical period, approach each other. Topological and time series analyses presented here demonstrate that earthquakes worldwide show evidence of such synchronization. Though numerous studies demonstrate that the composite temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the instrumental record is indistinguishable from random, the additional consideration of event renewal interval serves to identify earthquake groupings suggestive of synchronization that are absent in synthetic catalogs. We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth's variable rotation. For example, quasi‐periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.
Plain Language Summary
Large earthquakes appear to synchronize globally, in the sense that they are organized in time according to their renewal properties, and occur in groups in response to very low stress interactions.
Key Points
Large earthquakes are synchronized
Therefore, the likelihood of earthquakes with particular characteristics varies in time in a quantifiable way
Changes in length of day can excite sets of earthquakes with short renewal intervals
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
The record of earthquakes in India is patchy prior to 1800 and its improvement is much impeded by its dispersal in a dozen local languages, and several colonial archives. Although geological studies ...will necessarily complement the historical record, only two earthquakes of the dozens of known historical events have resulted in surface ruptures, and it is likely that geological data in the form of liquefaction features will be needed to extend the historical record beyond the most recent few centuries. Damage from large Himalayan earthquakes recorded in Tibet and in Northern India suggests that earthquakes may attain M = 8.2. Seismic gaps along two-thirds of the Himalaya that have developed in the past five centuries, when combined with geodetic convergence rates of approximately 1.8 m/cy, suggests that one or more M = 8 earthquakes may be overdue. The mechanisms of recent earthquakes in Peninsular India are consistent with stresses induced in the Indian plate flexed by its collision with Tibet. A region of abnormally high seismicity in western India appears to be caused by local convergence across the Rann of Kachchh and possibly other rift zones of India. Since the plate itself deforms little, this deformation may be related to incipient plate fragmentation in Sindh or over a larger region of NW India.
A common feature of convergent plate boundaries is the self-organization of strain, exhumation and topography along discrete, arcuate boundaries. Deviations from this geometry can represent ...first-order changes in stress applied at a plate boundary that must affect how strain is partitioned within the interior of an orogen. The simplicity of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt seen along its central portion breaks down along the eastern extremity of the arc where the 400 km-long Shillong Plateau has developed. This change in strain partitioning affects nearly 25% of the arc and has not previously been considered to be important to the orogen's development. New low-temperature thermochronometry data suggest this structure initiated in mid to late Miocene time, significantly earlier than was previously estimated from the sedimentary record alone. Development of the Shillong Plateau may be linked to a number of kinematic changes within the Himalayan and Burman collision zones that occur at the same time. These events include the onset of E–W extension in central Tibet, eastward expansion of high topography of the Tibetan Plateau, onset of rotation of crustal fragments in southeastern Tibet, and re-establishment of eastward subduction beneath the Indo-Burman ranges. We suggest that the coincidence of these tectonic events is related to the ‘dismemberment’ of the eastern Himalayan arc, signifying a change in regional stress applied along the India–Eurasia–Burma plate boundaries. Discrepancies between vertical long-term faulting rates and geodetically derived far-field convergence rates suggest that the collisional boundary in the eastern Himalayan system may be poorly coupled due to introduction of oceanic and transitional crust into the eastern plate boundary. The introduction of dense material into the plate boundary late in the orogen's history may explain regional changes in the strain field that affect not only the Himalaya, but also the deformation field more than 1000 km into the Tibetan Plateau.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
GPS data reveal that the Brahmaputra Valley has broken from the Indian Plate and rotates clockwise relative to India about a point a few hundred kilometers west of the Shillong Plateau. The GPS ...velocity vectors define two distinct blocks separated by the Kopili fault upon which 2–3 mm/yr of dextral slip is observed: the Shillong block between longitudes 89 and 93°E rotating clockwise at 1.15°/Myr and the Assam block from 93.5°E to 97°E rotating at ≈1.13°/Myr. These two blocks are more than 120 km wide in a north‐south sense, but they extend locally a similar distance beneath the Himalaya and Tibet. A result of these rotations is that convergence across the Himalaya east of Sikkim decreases in velocity eastward from 18 to ≈12 mm/yr and convergence between the Shillong Plateau and Bangladesh across the Dauki fault increases from 3 mm/yr in the west to >8 mm/yr in the east. This fast convergence rate is inconsistent with inferred geological uplift rates on the plateau (if a 45°N dip is assumed for the Dauki fault) unless clockwise rotation of the Shillong block has increased substantially in the past 4–8 Myr. Such acceleration is consistent with the reported recent slowing in the convergence rate across the Bhutan Himalaya. The current slip potential near Bhutan, based on present‐day convergence rates and assuming no great earthquake since 1713 A.D., is now ~5.4 m, similar to the slip reported from alluvial terraces that offsets across the Main Himalayan Thrust and sufficient to sustain a Mw ≥ 8.0 earthquake in this area.
Key Points
New GPS velocity field in eastern HimalayaShillong Plateau is independent from IndiaStrain accumulated since the last earthquake is sufficient for a M > 8 earthquake
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
The rocks of the Indian subcontinent are last seen south of the Ganges before they plunge beneath the Himalaya and the Tibetan plateau. They are next glimpsed in seismic reflection profiles deep ...beneath southern Tibet, yet the surface seen there has been modified by processes within the Himalaya that have consumed parts of the upper Indian crust and converted them into Himalayan rocks. The geometry of the partly dismantled Indian plate as it passes through the Himalayan process zone has hitherto eluded imaging. Here we report seismic images both of the decollement at the base of the Himalaya and of the Moho (the boundary between crust and mantle) at the base of the Indian crust. A significant finding is that strong seismic anisotropy develops above the decollement in response to shear processes that are taken up as slip in great earthquakes at shallower depths. North of the Himalaya, the lower Indian crust is characterized by a high-velocity region consistent with the formation of eclogite, a high-density material whose presence affects the dynamics of the Tibetan plateau.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Convergence of 29 ± 1 mm/yr between the NW corner of the Indian plate and Asia is accommodated by a combination of thrust and strike‐slip faulting on prominent faults and apparent distributed ...deformation within the Hindu Kush, Pamir, South Tien Shan and Kohistan Ranges. An upper bound to the slip rate of known faults is obtained by ignoring distributed strain and rotation: convergence occurs on thrust faults north of the Peshawar Basin (13 ± 1 mm/yr) and in the Alai‐South Tien Shan (12 ± 2 mm/yr), and shear on the northeast‐trending northern Chaman‐Gardiz‐Konar system (18 ± 1mm/yr) and the Darvaz‐Karakul fault zone (11 ± 2 mm/yr). Slip rates on the Herat and Talas‐Ferghana faults are small (<2 mm/yr). Shortening not attributable to known active faults occurs within the Hindu Kush and central Pamir (16 ± 2 mm/yr) with concomitant east‐west extension in the latter of 9 ± 2 mm/yr. This diversity of strain styles confirms the importance of mechanical heterogeneity to continental tectonics and shows that the Pamir, although less than half the size, behaves more like Tibet than like a linear belt of localized deformation.
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Earthquakes. Himalayan seismic hazard Bilham, R; Gaur, V K; Molnar, P
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
2001-Aug-24, 20010824, Volume:
293, Issue:
5534
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements in China indicate that crustal shortening accommodates most of India's penetration into Eurasia. Deformation within the Tibetan Plateau and its margins, ...the Himalaya, the Altyn Tagh, and the Qilian Shan, absorbs more than 90% of the relative motion between the Indian and Eurasian plates. Internal shortening of the Tibetan plateau itself accounts for more than one-third of the total convergence. However, the Tibetan plateau south of the Kunlun and Ganzi-Mani faults is moving eastward relative to both India and Eurasia. This movement is accommodated through rotation of material around the eastern Syntaxis. The North China and South China blocks, east of the Tibetan Plateau, move coherently east-southeastward at rates of 2 to 8 millimeters per year and 6 to 11 millimeters per year, respectively, with respect to the stable Eurasia.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Two years after the Great Sumatra‐Andaman earthquake the 3.1 m WSW coseismic displacement at Port Blair, Andaman Islands, had increased by 32 cm. Postseismic uplift initially exceeded 1 cm per week ...and decreased to <1 mm/week. By 2007 points near Port Blair had risen more than 20 cm, a 24% reversal of coseismic subsidence. Uplift at eight GPS sites suggests a gradual eastward shift of the coseismic neutral axis separating subsidence from uplift. Simulations of the GPS postseismic displacements as viscoelastic relaxation of coseismic stress change and as slip on the plate interface indicate that slip down‐dip of the seismic rupture dominates near‐field deformation during the first two years. Postseismic slip beneath the Andaman Islands released moment equivalent to a magnitude Mw ≥ 7.5 earthquake, and the distribution suggests deep slip in the stable frictional regime accelerated to catch up to the coseismic rupture.
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
PDF
