A newly developed hybrid-coordinate ocean circulation model is documented and tested. Coordinate surfaces in this model adhere to isopycnals wherever this does not violate minimum layer thickness ...requirements; elsewhere, coordinate surfaces are geometrically constrained. The intent of this approach, some of whose features are reminiscent of the Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) technique, is to combine the best features of isopycnic-coordinate and fixed-grid circulation models within a single framework. The hybrid model is an offshoot of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model whose solutions, obtained under identical geographic and forcing conditions, serve as reference. Century-scale simulations on a coarse-mesh near-global domain show considerable similarities in the modeled thermohaline-forced circulation. Certain architectural details, such as the choice of prognostic thermodynamic variables (
ρ,
S versus
T,
S) and the algorithm for moving coordinate surfaces toward their reference isopycnals, are found to only have a minor impact on the solution. Emphasis in this article is on the numerical resiliency of the hybrid coordinate approach. Exploitation of the model's flexible coordinate layout in areas of ocean physics where pure isopycnic coordinate models only have limited options, such as mixed-layer turbulence parameterization, will be the subject of forthcoming articles.
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2.
THE SUBSEASONAL EXPERIMENT (SubX) Pegion, Kathy; Kirtman, Ben P.; Becker, Emily ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
10/2019, Volume:
100, Issue:
10
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have ...produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation 3 weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multimodel ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated, with skillful predictions of the MJO 4 weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters.
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We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the ...Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use six variations related to the treatment of the atmospheric composition, the calculation of aerosol indirect effects, and ocean model component. Specifically, we test the difference between atmospheric models that have noninteractive composition, where radiatively important aerosols and ozone are prescribed from precomputed decadal averages, and interactive versions where atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are calculated given decadally varying emissions. The impact of the first aerosol indirect effect on clouds is either specified using a simple tuning, or parameterized using a cloud microphysics scheme. We also use two dynamic ocean components: the Russell and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) which differ significantly in their basic formulations and grid. Results are presented for the climatological means over the satellite era (1980–2004) taken from transient simulations starting from the preindustrial (1850) driven by estimates of appropriate forcings over the 20th Century. Differences in base climate and variability related to the choice of ocean model are large, indicating an important structural uncertainty. The impact of interactive atmospheric composition on the climatology is relatively small except in regions such as the lower stratosphere, where ozone plays an important role, and the tropics, where aerosol changes affect the hydrological cycle and cloud cover. While key improvements over previous versions of the model are evident, these are not uniform across all metrics.
Key Points
Description of the GISS ModelE2 contribution to CMIP5
Impact on evaluation of structural changes in composition and ocean treatment
Ocean model choice is an important structural uncertainty
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Monthlong hindcasts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) from the atmospheric Flow-following Icosahedral Model coupled with an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model ...(FIM-iHYCOM), and from the coupled Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), are evaluated over the 12-yr period 1999-2010. Two sets of FIM-iHYCOM hindcasts are run to test the impact of using Grell-Freitas (FIM-CGF) versus simplified Arakawa-Schubert (FIM-SAS) deep convection parameterizations. Each hindcast set consists of four time-lagged ensemble members initialized weekly every 6 h from 1200 UTC Tuesday to 0600 UTC Wednesday. The ensemble means of FIM-CGF, FIM-SAS, and CFSv2 produce skillful forecasts of a variant of the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index out to 19, 17, and 17 days, respectively; this is consistent with FIM-CGF having the lowest root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for zonal winds at both 850 and 200 hPa. FIM-CGF and CFSv2 exhibit similar RMSEs in RMM, and their
ensemble mean extends skillful RMM prediction out to 21 days. Conversely, adding FIM-SAS-with much higher RMSEs-to CFSv2 (as a multimodel ensemble) or FIM-CGF (as a
ensemble) yields either little benefit, or even a degradation, compared to the better single-model ensemble mean. This suggests that multiphysics/multimodel ensemble mean forecasts may only add value when the individual models possess similar skill and error. An atmosphere-only version of FIM-CGF loses skill after 11 days, highlighting the importance of ocean coupling. Further examination reveals some sensitivity in skill and error metrics to the choice of MJO index.
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US GODAE CHASSIGNET, ERIC P.; HURLBURT, HARLEY E.; METZGER, E. JOSEPH ...
Oceanography (Washington, D.C.),
06/2009, Volume:
22, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
During the past five to ten years, a broad partnership of institutions under NOPP sponsorship has collaborated in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, ...real-time global- and basin-scale ocean prediction systems using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The partnership represents a broad spectrum of the oceanographic community, bringing together academia, federal agencies, and industry/commercial entities, and spanning modeling, data assimilation, data management and serving, observational capabilities, and application of HYCOM prediction system outputs. In addition to providing real-time, eddy-resolving global- and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, this project also offered an outstanding opportunity for NOAA-Navy collaboration and cooperation, ranging from research to the operational level. This paper provides an overview of the global HYCOM ocean prediction system and highlights some of its achievements. An important outcome of this effort is the capability of the global system to provide boundary conditions to even higher-resolution regional and coastal models.
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Abstract
Subseasonal forecast skill of the global hydrostatic atmospheric Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) coupled to an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) ...is evaluated through 32-day predictions initialized weekly using a four-member time-lagged ensemble over the 16-yr period 1999–2014. Systematic biases in forecasts by the coupled system, referred to as FIM–iHYCOM, are described in a companion paper (Part I). This present study (Part II) assesses probabilistic and deterministic model skill for predictions of surface temperature, precipitation, and 500-hPa geopotential height in different seasons at different lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The coupled model appears to have reasonable agreement with reanalysis in terms of simulated weekly variability in sea surface temperatures, except in extratropical regions because the ocean model cannot explicitly resolve eddies there. This study also describes the ability of the model to simulate midlatitude tropospheric blocking frequency, Madden–Julian oscillation patterns, and sudden stratospheric warming events—all of which have been shown to be relevant on subseasonal time scales. The metrics used here indicate that the subseasonal forecast skill of the model is comparable to that of several operational models, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) operational Climate Forecast System version 2 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Therefore, FIM–iHYCOM—as a participant in NOAA’s Subseasonal Experiment—is expected to add value to multimodel ensemble forecasts produced through this effort.
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Atmospheric measurements of methyl chloroform provide important constraints on the rate of oxidation of hydrocarbons in Earth's atmosphere. Estimates of the loss of methyl chloroform to the oceans ...play a small but important role in these calculations. Here, we examine the ocean‐atmosphere interaction of methyl chloroform in a global ocean model. Contrary to previous assumptions, these simulations suggest that the high‐latitude oceans are currently a source of this chemical to the atmosphere. If confirmed, this finding alters estimates of the change in the atmospheric oxidation rate of hydrocarbons. We highlight the potential usefulness of methyl chloroform as a tracer of ocean circulation.
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GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology Kelley, Maxwell; Schmidt, Gavin A; Nazarenko, Larissa ...
Journal of advances in modeling earth systems,
August 2020, Volume:
12, Issue:
8
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to ...parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2xCO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7‐‐3.1°C (depending on version), and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.
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This article provides an overview of the effort centered on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) to develop an eddy-resolving, real-time global and basin-scale ocean hindcast, nowcast, and ...prediction system in the context of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The main characteristics of HYCOM are first presented, followed by a description and assessment of the present near real-time Atlantic forecasting system. Regional/coastal applications are also discussed since an important attribute of the data assimilative HYCOM simulations is the capability to provide boundary conditions to regional and coastal models. The final section describes the steps taken toward the establishment of the fully global eddy-resolving HYCOM data assimilative system and discusses some of the difficulties associated with advanced data assimilation given the size of the problem.
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Abstract
The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structure—a quasi-uniform ...icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid rendition of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) was developed and coupled to FIM. By sharing a common horizontal mesh, air–sea fluxes between the two models are conserved locally and globally. Both models use similar adaptive hybrid vertical coordinates. Another unique aspect of the coupled model (referred to as FIM–iHYCOM) is the use of the Grell–Freitas scale-aware convective scheme in the atmosphere. A multiyear retrospective study is necessary to demonstrate the potential usefulness and allow for immediate bias correction of a subseasonal prediction model. In these two articles, results are shown based on a 16-yr period of hindcasts from FIM–iHYCOM, which has been providing real-time forecasts out to a lead time of 4 weeks for NOAA’s Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) starting July 2017. Part I provides an overview of FIM–iHYCOM and compares its systematic errors at subseasonal time scales to those of NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Part II uses bias-corrected hindcasts to assess both deterministic and probabilistic subseasonal skill of FIM–iHYCOM. FIM–iHYCOM has smaller biases than CFSv2 for some fields (including precipitation) and comparable biases for other fields (including sea surface temperature). FIM–iHYCOM also has less drift in bias between weeks 1 and 4 than CFSv2. The unique grid structure and physics suite of FIM–iHYCOM is expected to add diversity to multimodel ensemble forecasts at subseasonal time scales in SubX.
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