IMPORTANCE: Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is the most common skin cancer with metastatic potential, but epidemiologic data are poor. Changes to the National Cancer Registration and ...Analysis Service (NCRAS) in England have allowed more accurate data analysis of primary and metastatic cSCC since 2013. OBJECTIVE: To assess the national incidence of cSCC and metastatic cSCC (mcSCC) in England from 2013 through 2015. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This national population-based study identified a cohort of patients with cSCC and mcSCC in England from January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2015. Patients were identified using diagnostic codes derived from pathology reports in the NCRAS. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2017, through March 1, 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incidence rates across sex and risk factors for cSCC were derived from the NCRAS data. Risk of occurrence of mcSCC among the population with cSCC was assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to determine indicators of mcSCC. RESULTS: Among the 76 977 patients with first primary cSCC in 2013 through 2015 (62.7% male; median age, 80 years interquartile range, 72-86 years), the age-standardized rates for the first registered cSCC in England from 2013 through 2015 were 77.3 per 100 000 person-years (PY) (95% CI, 76.6-78.0) in male patients and 34.1 per 100 000 PY (95% CI, 33.7-34.5) in female patients. Increased primary cSCC tumor count was observed in older, white male patients in lower deprivation quintiles. After a maximum follow-up of 36 months, cumulative incidence of mcSCC developed in 1.1% of women and 2.4% of men with a primary cSCC. Significant increases in the risk of metastasis with adjusted hazard rates of approximately 2.00 were observed in patients who were aged 80 to 89 years (hazard ratio HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.43), 90 years or older (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.09-1.66), male (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.52-2.10), immunosuppressed (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.64-2.42), and in higher deprivation quintiles (HR for highest quintile, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.35-2.00). Primary cSCC located on the ear (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.42-2.03) and lip (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.29-2.63) were at highest risk of metastasis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study presents the first national study of the incidence of mcSCC. With limited health care resources and an aging population, accurate epidemiologic data are essential for informing future health care planning, identifying high-risk patients, and evaluating skin cancer prevention policies.
PurposeThe purpose of the Radiotherapy Dataset (RTDS) is to collect consistent and comparable data across all providers of National Health Service (NHS)-funded radiotherapy and to provide ...intelligence for service planning, commissioning, clinical practice and research.ParticipantsThe RTDS is a mandated dataset requiring providers to collect and submit data monthly for patients treated in England. Data is available from 01 April 2009 to 2 months behind the calendar month.The National Disease Registration Service (NDRS) started receiving data from 01 April 2016. Prior to this, the National Clinical Analysis and Specialised Applications Team (NATCANSAT) were responsible for the RTDS. NDRS holds a copy of the NATCANSAT data for English NHS providers.The RTDS contains clinical information on the primary disease being treated, modality and intent of treatment, dose fractionation and hospital appointment details. Due to constraints in RTDS coding, linkage to the English National Cancer Registration dataset is beneficial.Findings to dateThe RTDS has been linked to the English National Cancer Registration and Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy (SACT) datasets and to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) to provide a more complete picture of the patient cancer pathway. Findings include a study to compare outcomes for patients treated with radical radiotherapy, an investigation of factors influencing 30-day mortality, assessing sociodemographic variation in the use of treatment and a study to assess the service impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A range of other studies have been completed or are ongoing currently.Future plansThe RTDS can be used for a variety of functions including cancer epidemiological studies to investigate inequalities in treatment access; provide service planning intelligence; monitor clinical practice; and support clinical trial design and recruitment. Collection is to continue indefinitely, with regular updates to the data specification to enable capture of more detailed information on radiotherapy planning and delivery.
PurposeThe National Congenital Anomaly and Rare Disease Registration Service (NCARDRS), part of National Disease Registration Service in National Health Service England, quality assures, curates and ...analyses individual data on the pregnancies, fetuses, babies, children and adults with congenital anomalies and rare diseases across England. The congenital anomaly (CA) register provides a resource for patients and their families, clinicians, researchers and public health professionals in furthering the understanding of CAs.ParticipantsNCARDRS registers CAs occurring in babies born alive and stillborn, fetal losses and terminations in England. NCARDRS collects data from secondary and tertiary healthcare providers, private providers and laboratories covering fetal medicine, maternity or paediatric services. Data describe the pregnancy, mother, baby and anomaly. Established in 2015, NCARDRS expanded CA registration coverage from 22% of total births in England in 2015 to national coverage, which was achieved in 2018. Prior to 2015, data collection was performed independently by regional registers in England; these data are also held by NCARDRS.Findings to dateNCARDRS registers approximately 21 000 babies with CAs per year with surveillance covering around 600 000 total births, the largest birth coverage for a CA register globally. Data on prevalence, risk factors and survival for children with CAs are available. Data have been used in several peer-reviewed publications. Birth prevalence statistics, including public health indicators such as the association with maternal age, infant and perinatal mortality, are published annually. NCARDRS supports clinical audit for screening programmes and service evaluation.Future plansNCARDRS provides a valuable resource for the understanding of the epidemiology, surveillance, prevention and treatment of CAs. Currently, approximately 21 000 new registrations of babies or fetuses with suspected or confirmed CAs are added each year. Identifiers are collected, enabling linkage to routinely collected healthcare and population statistics, further enhancing the value of the data.
Spence's thought provoking article spurred me into a little investigation of my own. 1 Data from the South West Cancer Information Service show that the age standardised rate for the incidence of ...malignant melanoma in England rose from six per 100000 population in 1985 to 18 per 100000 population in 2006; mortality similarly rose from two per 100000 population to three per 100000 population. 2 Both increases are statistically significant. Malignant melanoma: incidence, mortality and survival rates in the South West region and England. 2009. www.swpho.nhs.uk/skincancerhub/resource/view.aspx?RID=46813 3 South West Public Health Observatory.
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BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Ethnic minority women are commonly reported to have more aggressive breast cancer than White women, but there is little contemporary national evidence available.
We analysed data from the National ...Cancer Registration and Analysis Service on women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during 2013-2018. Multivariable logistic regression yielded adjusted odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) of less favourable tumour characteristics (high stage, high grade, ER negative, Her2 positive) by ethnicity (black African, black Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and white) in younger (30-46 years) and older (53-70 years) women.
In 24,022 women aged 30-46 at diagnosis, all ethnic minority groups apart from Indian women had a significantly greater odds of certain less favourable tumour characteristics compared to white women in fully adjusted models. In 92,555 women aged 53-70, all ethnic minorities had a significantly greater adjusted odds of several of the less favourable tumour characteristics. These differences were most marked in black African and black Caribbean women.
Ethnic minority women are at greater risk of breast cancers with less favourable characteristics, even after allowing for age and other potential confounders. These differences are greater in older than younger women, and in the Black rather than South Asian ethnic groups.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
During the COVID-19 lockdown, referrals via the 2-week-wait urgent pathway for suspected cancer in England, UK, are reported to have decreased by up to 84%. We aimed to examine the impact of ...different scenarios of lockdown-accumulated backlog in cancer referrals on cancer survival, and the impact on survival per referred patient due to delayed referral versus risk of death from nosocomial infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
In this modelling study, we used age-stratified and stage-stratified 10-year cancer survival estimates for patients in England, UK, for 20 common tumour types diagnosed in 2008–17 at age 30 years and older from Public Health England. We also used data for cancer diagnoses made via the 2-week-wait referral pathway in 2013–16 from the Cancer Waiting Times system from NHS Digital. We applied per-day hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer progression that we generated from observational studies of delay to treatment. We quantified the annual numbers of cancers at stage I–III diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway using 2-week-wait age-specific and stage-specific breakdowns. From these numbers, we estimated the aggregate number of lives and life-years lost in England for per-patient delays of 1–6 months in presentation, diagnosis, or cancer treatment, or a combination of these. We assessed three scenarios of a 3-month period of lockdown during which 25%, 50%, and 75% of the normal monthly volumes of symptomatic patients delayed their presentation until after lockdown. Using referral-to-diagnosis conversion rates and COVID-19 case-fatality rates, we also estimated the survival increment per patient referred.
Across England in 2013–16, an average of 6281 patients with stage I–III cancer were diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway per month, of whom 1691 (27%) would be predicted to die within 10 years from their disease. Delays in presentation via the 2-week-wait pathway over a 3-month lockdown period (with an average presentational delay of 2 months per patient) would result in 181 additional lives and 3316 life-years lost as a result of a backlog of referrals of 25%, 361 additional lives and 6632 life-years lost for a 50% backlog of referrals, and 542 additional lives and 9948 life-years lost for a 75% backlog in referrals. Compared with all diagnostics for the backlog being done in month 1 after lockdown, additional capacity across months 1–3 would result in 90 additional lives and 1662 live-years lost due to diagnostic delays for the 25% backlog scenario, 183 additional lives and 3362 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 276 additional lives and 5075 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. However, a delay in additional diagnostic capacity with provision spread across months 3–8 after lockdown would result in 401 additional lives and 7332 life-years lost due to diagnostic delays under the 25% backlog scenario, 811 additional lives and 14 873 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 1231 additional lives and 22 635 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. A 2-month delay in 2-week-wait investigatory referrals results in an estimated loss of between 0·0 and 0·7 life-years per referred patient, depending on age and tumour type.
Prompt provision of additional capacity to address the backlog of diagnostics will minimise deaths as a result of diagnostic delays that could add to those predicted due to expected presentational delays. Prioritisation of patient groups for whom delay would result in most life-years lost warrants consideration as an option for mitigating the aggregate burden of mortality in patients with cancer.
None.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Screening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could ...reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.
A natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population survival model to account for an increased risk of death from cfDNA-detectable cancers relative to cfDNA-non-detectable cancers. We developed another model allowing some cancers to metastasise directly from stage I, bypassing intermediate tumour stages. We used incidence and survival-by-stage data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate longer-term benefits to a cohort screened between ages 50-79 years.
Estimated late-stage and mortality reductions were robust to a range of assumptions. With the least favourable dwell (sojourn) time and cfDNA status hazard ratio assumptions, we estimated, among 100,000 screened individuals, 67 (17%) fewer cancer deaths per year corresponding to 2029 fewer deaths in those screened between ages 50-79 years.
Realising the potential benefits of MCED tests could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and mortality.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer after ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnosed through breast screening.DesignPopulation based ...observational cohort study.SettingData from the NHS Breast Screening Programme and the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service.ParticipantsAll 35 024 women in England diagnosed as having DCIS by the NHS Breast Screening Programme from its start in 1988 until March 2014.Main outcome measuresIncident invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer.ResultsBy December 2014, 13 606 women had been followed for up to five years, 10 998 for five to nine years, 6861 for 10-14 years, 2620 for 15-19 years, and 939 for at least 20 years. Among these women, 2076 developed invasive breast cancer, corresponding to an incidence rate of 8.82 (95% confidence interval 8.45 to 9.21) per 1000 women per year and more than double that expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed rate to expected rate 2.52, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 2.63). The increase started in the second year after diagnosis of DCIS and continued until the end of follow-up. In the same group of women, 310 died from breast cancer, corresponding to a death rate of 1.26 (1.13 to 1.41) per 1000 women per year and 70% higher than that expected from national breast cancer mortality rates (observed:expected ratio 1.70, 1.52 to 1.90). During the first five years after diagnosis of DCIS, the breast cancer death rate was similar to that expected from national mortality rates (observed:expected ratio 0.87, 0.69 to 1.10), but it then increased, with values of 1.98 (1.65 to 2.37), 2.99 (2.41 to 3.70), and 2.77 (2.01 to 3.80) in years five to nine, 10-14, and 15 or more after DCIS diagnosis. Among 29 044 women with unilateral DCIS undergoing surgery, those who had more intensive treatment (mastectomy, radiotherapy for women who had breast conserving surgery, and endocrine treatment in oestrogen receptor positive disease) and those with larger final surgical margins had lower rates of invasive breast cancer.ConclusionsTo date, women with DCIS detected by screening have, on average, experienced higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer than women in the general population during a period of at least two decades after their diagnosis. More intensive treatment and larger final surgical margins were associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer.
AbstractObjectivesTo evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death related to breast cancer after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Risks for women in the general ...population and for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ via the screening programme were compared.DesignPopulation based cohort study.SettingData from the National Disease Registration Service.ParticipantsAll 27 543 women in England who were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ, outside the NHS breast screening programme, during 1990 to 2018.Main outcome measuresIncident invasive breast cancer and death caused by breast cancer.ResultsBy 31 December 2018, 3651 women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had developed invasive breast cancer, more than four times higher than expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed to expected rate was 4.21 (95% conference interval 4.07 to 4.35)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of developing invasive breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up among women aged <45-70 years. The 25 year cumulative risks of invasive breast cancer by age at diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ were 27.3% for <45 years, 25.2% for 45-49 years, 21.7% for 50-59 years, and 20.8% for 60-70 years. 908 women died of breast cancer, almost four times higher than that expected from breast cancer death rates in the general population (ratio of observed to expected rate 3.83 (3.59 to 4.09)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of mortality attributed to breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up. The 25 year cumulative risks of breast cancer death by age at ductal carcinoma in situ diagnosis were 7.6% for <45 years, 5.8% for 45-49 years, 5.9% for 50-59 years, and 6.2% for 60-70 years. Among women aged 50-64 years, and therefore eligible for breast screening by the NHS, the ratio of observed to expected rate of invasive breast cancer in women with non-screen detected compared with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ was 1.26 (95% conference interval 1.17 to 1.35), while the ratio for mortality from breast cancer was 1.37 (1.17 to 1.60). Among 22 753 women with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ undergoing surgery, those who had mastectomy rather than breast conserving surgery had a lower 25 year cumulative rate of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (mastectomy 8.2% (95% conference interval 7.0% to 9.4%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 19.8% (16.2% to 23.4%), and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 20.6% (18.7% to 22.4%)). However, reductions did not translate into a lower 25 year cumulative rate of deaths attributable to breast cancer (mastectomy 6.5% (4.9% to 10.9%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 8.6% (5.9% to 15.5%), breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 7.8% (6.3% to 11.5%)).ConclusionsFor at least 25 years after their diagnosis, women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death than women in the general population. Additionally, they had higher long term risks than women with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Mastectomy was associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer than breast conserving surgery, even when accompanied by radiotherapy. However, risks of breast cancer death appeared similar for mastectomy, breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy, and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded.
Abstract
Involved margins after surgery for early breast cancer increase the risk of local recurrence (LR), but international guidelines suggest that’ no tumour’ on ink is sufficient margin clearance ...after breast conserving surgery (BCS). Data on the effect of margin clearance on distant recurrence (DR) are lacking. Our aim was to determine the association between margin involvement, recurrence (DR) and breast cancer deaths. Methods Data from breast cancer units in Greater Manchester (GM) and the UK National Cancer Registry (NCRAS) were analysed. Margin status was prospectively recorded after surgery according to National Health Service Breast Screening Pathology (NHSBSP) minimum pathology data standards All patients underwent curative surgery and received adjuvant therapy according to local guidelines. Patients not undergoing curative surgery(T4, inflammatory or metastatic cancer) were excluded .Cox-proportional hazards models investigated factors associated with LR, DR and risk of breast cancer death.NCRAS records breast cancer deaths . Results GM analysis included 3270 patients from 2010 to 2014, 2295 (70.2%) had margins (>2mm) ,302 (9.2%) close (1-2mm) margin clearance and 673 (20.6%) involved (<1mm) margins. Median age was 61 years (range 24-100 years) and median follow up was 64.4 months (range 0.0-126.6 months). Breast Conserving Surgery (n=2030) and Mastectomy (n=1240) surgery was used as appropriate and most patients underwent adjuvant radiotherapy (71%) and/or hormone therapy (84%).160 patients (4.9%) developed LR and 231 patients (7.06%) DR. Time-to-DR (p=0.035) and time-to-LR (p=0.012) differed by margin status. At 5-years, the probability of LR was 3.1%, 3.5% and 5.8% and for DR was 4.9%, 5.9% and 7.1% for clear, close and involved margins, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, involved margins<1mm were associated with increased hazard of DR (HR 1.459, 95% CI: 1.050, 2.027, p=0.025) and LR (HR 1.79, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.63, p=0.004) compared to a clear margin>2mm. For Breast Conservation margins<1mm increased DR (HR 2.09,1.22-3.58:p<0.009 ) compared to clear margins. Similar findings were found in several subgroup analyses including screening, symptomatic and by cancer treatments. NCRAS data from 2010-2013 included 40,849 patients with invasive cancer of whom 27,589 margins >1mm (67.5%) and 3,935 (9.6%) were classed as “clear margins” and 9,325 (22.8%) cancer patients had involved margins <1mm, There were 3,160 deaths from breast cancer with a median follow-up of 80.2 months. Multivariate analysis in NCRAS indicated excess cancer mortality (HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.08-1.28) in the 9325 (22.8%) patients with margins <1mm (p<0.001), tumour stage (stage 3 HR 7.01 (6.28-7.82), p<0.001), age (HR 1.02 (1.02-1.03, p<0.001), symptomatic detection (HR 2.21 (1.98-2.46), p<0.001) and lower socio-economic status HR 1.31 (1.16-1.47, p<0.001). Conclusions Margins>1mm were associated with reduced DR and should be essential surgical management. Current guidelines about surgical margins need to be re-evaluated to achieve reduced DR and cancer deaths.
Citation Format: Nigel James Bundred, Sarah Michael, John Broggio, Anne Armstrong, Glen Martin, Mohamed Absar, Jane Ooi. Increased distant recurrence following margin involvement in early invasive breast cancer in two large UK cohorts abstract. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-20-01.
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