We have previously shown that the PAM50-based risk of recurrence (ROR) score is significantly correlated with distant recurrence in both the translational research cohort within the Arimidex, ...Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial (TransATAC) and Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group 8 (ABCSG 8) randomized trials. Here, we focus on the ROR score for predicting distant recurrence after 5 years of follow-up in a combined analysis of these two randomized trials.
Long-term follow-up data and tissue samples were obtained from 2,137 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer from the ABCSG 8 and TransATAC trials. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to determine the prognostic value of ROR for distant recurrence beyond 5 years in the combined data set.
A total of 2,137 women who did not have a recurrence 5 years after diagnosis were included in the combined analyses. The Clinical Treatment Score (CTS) was the strongest prognostic factor 5 years after diagnosis (univariable: likelihood ratio LR χ(2) = 94.12, bivariable: LR χ(2) = 61.43). The ROR score was significantly prognostic by itself in years 5 to 10. In the node-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative subgroup, more prognostic value for late distant recurrence was added by the ROR score compared with the CTS.
The ROR score added clinically meaningful prognostic information to the CTS in all patients and all subgroups in the late follow-up period. These results suggest that the ROR score may be helpful for separating patients into risk groups who could be spared or potentially benefit from extended hormonal therapy beyond 5 years of treatment.
Forest plots have become a useful graphical method of displaying treatment effects across subgroups. Yet in their standard presentation they tend to encourage misinterpretation. This results from ...presenting a bold vertical line at the no effect point (eg, a hazard ratio of 1.0), which focuses unwanted attention on whether or not the confidence interval for an individual subgroup touches the no effect point. Interpretation of subgroup effects would be helped if this line was deemphasised or omitted and replaced by a bold vertical line at the overall treatment effect level, making it easier to see if a subgroup confidence interval differed significantly from the overall effect. Using data from the ATAC trial update,3 the figure illustrates this point. The revised plot makes it much clearer that there are no significant treatment interactions, and discourages unsubstantiated and probably false implications-eg, the putative relative lack of benefit of anastrozole compared with tamoxifen in patients pretreated with chemotherapy.
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DOBA, GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, VSZLJ
We recently reported that the mRNA-based, 21-gene Genomic Health recurrence score (GHI-RS) provided additional prognostic information regarding distant recurrence beyond that obtained from classical ...clinicopathologic factors (age, nodal status, tumor size, grade, endocrine treatment) in women with early breast cancer, confirming earlier reports. The aim of this article is to determine how much of this information is contained in standard immunohistochemical (IHC) markers.
The primary cohort comprised 1,125 estrogen receptor-positive (ER-positive) patients from the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy, had the GHI-RS computed, and had adequate tissue for the four IHC measurements: ER, progesterone receptor (PgR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and Ki-67. Distant recurrence was the primary end point, and proportional hazards models were used with sample splitting to control for overfitting. A prognostic model that used classical variables and the four IHC markers (IHC4 score) was created and assessed in a separate cohort of 786 patients.
All four IHC markers provided independent prognostic information in the presence of classical variables. In sample-splitting analyses, the information in the IHC4 score was found to be similar to that in the GHI-RS, and little additional prognostic value was seen in the combined use of both scores. The prognostic value of the IHC4 score was further validated in the second separate cohort.
This study suggests that the amount of prognostic information contained in four widely performed IHC assays is similar to that in the GHI-RS. Additional studies are needed to determine the general applicability of the IHC4 score.
Anastrozole has been associated with substantial accelerated bone mineral density (BMD) loss during active treatment.
One thousand four hundred and ten women were included in a BMD substudy and ...stratified into three strata according to their baseline T-score at spine or femoral neck. The primary objective of this analysis was to investigate whether DXA BMD at the spine and hip changed two years after treatment cessation (between years 5 and 7) in those who did not receive risedronate.
Five- and seven-year BMD data were available for a total of 528 women who did not receive risedronate. In women with normal BMD at baseline, an increase in BMD at the lumbar spine after anastrozole withdrawal was observed 1.25% (95% CI 0.73 to 1.77) (P = 0.0004), which was larger than in those on placebo (0.14% (-0.29 to 0.56))). At the hip, BMD remained unchanged between years 5 and 7 for those previously on anastrozole but continued to a decrease in those who had been randomised to placebo (-1.35% (-1.70 to -0.98)).
These are the first results reporting BMD changes after stopping anastrozole in a breast cancer prevention setting. Our results show that the negative effects of anastrozole on BMD in the preventive setting are partially reversible.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Third-generation aromatase inhibitors have been widely used in postmenopausal women for the adjuvant treatment of hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. As aromatase inhibitors work by inhibiting ...the conversion of androgens to estrogens in adipose tissue, we hypothesized that anastrozole may be more effective in women with a high body mass index (BMI).
The Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) study was a double-blind randomized clinical trial in which postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer were randomly assigned to receive oral daily anastrozole (1 mg) alone, tamoxifen (20 mg) alone, or the combination in a double-blind fashion. Analyses were based on the 100-month median follow-up for women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancers (estrogen ER and/or progesterone PgR positive). Here, we investigate the impact of BMI on recurrence and the relative benefit of anastrozole versus tamoxifen according to baseline BMI. Results Overall, women with a high BMI (BMI > 35 kg/m(2)) at baseline had more recurrences than those women with a low BMI (BMI < 23 kg/m(2); adjusted hazard ratio HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.82; P(heterogeneity) = .03) and significantly more distant recurrences (adjusted HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.61; P(heterogeneity) = .01). Overall, the relative benefit of anastrozole versus tamoxifen was nonsignificantly better in thin women compared to overweight women.
These results confirm the poorer prognosis of obese women with early-stage breast cancer. Recurrence rates were lower for anastrozole than tamoxifen for all BMI quintiles. Our results suggest that the relative efficacy of anastrozole compared to tamoxifen is greater in thin postmenopausal women and higher doses or more complete inhibitors might be more effective in overweight women, but this requires independent confirmation.
Summary Background Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide and has a high mortality rate. We tested the hypothesis that only one flexible sigmoidoscopy screening between 55 and 64 ...years of age can substantially reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Methods This randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 14 UK centres. 170 432 eligible men and women, who had indicated on a previous questionnaire that they would accept an invitation for screening, were randomly allocated to the intervention group (offered flexible sigmoidoscopy screening) or the control group (not contacted). Randomisation by sequential number generation was done centrally in blocks of 12, with stratification by trial centre, general practice, and household type. The primary outcomes were the incidence of colorectal cancer, including prevalent cases detected at screening, and mortality from colorectal cancer. Analyses were intention to treat and per protocol. The trial is registered, number ISRCTN28352761. Findings 113 195 people were assigned to the control group and 57 237 to the intervention group, of whom 112 939 and 57 099, respectively, were included in the final analyses. 40 674 (71%) people underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy. During screening and median follow-up of 11·2 years (IQR 10·7–11·9), 2524 participants were diagnosed with colorectal cancer (1818 in control group vs 706 in intervention group) and 20 543 died (13 768 vs 6775; 727 certified from colorectal cancer 538 vs 189). In intention-to-treat analyses, colorectal cancer incidence in the intervention group was reduced by 23% (hazard ratio 0·77, 95% CI 0·70–0·84) and mortality by 31% (0·69, 0·59–0·82). In per-protocol analyses, adjusting for self-selection bias in the intervention group, incidence of colorectal cancer in people attending screening was reduced by 33% (0·67, 0·60–0·76) and mortality by 43% (0·57, 0·45–0·72). Incidence of distal colorectal cancer (rectum and sigmoid colon) was reduced by 50% (0·50, 0·42–0·59; secondary outcome). The numbers needed to be screened to prevent one colorectal cancer diagnosis or death, by the end of the study period, were 191 (95% CI 145–277) and 489 (343–852), respectively. Interpretation Flexible sigmoidoscopy is a safe and practical test and, when offered only once between ages 55 and 64 years, confers a substantial and longlasting benefit. Funding Medical Research Council, National Health Service R&D, Cancer Research UK, KeyMed.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Summary Background Biomarkers to improve the risk–benefit of extended adjuvant endocrine therapy for late recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer would be clinically ...valuable. We compared the prognostic ability of the breast-cancer index (BCI) assay, 21-gene recurrence score (Oncotype DX), and an immunohistochemical prognostic model (IHC4) for both early and late recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive, node-negative (N0) disease who took part in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) clinical trial. Methods In this prospective comparison study, we obtained archival tumour blocks from the TransATAC tissue bank from all postmenopausal patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer from whom the 21-gene recurrence score and IHC4 values had already been derived. We did BCI analysis in matched samples with sufficient residual RNA using two BCI models—cubic (BCI-C) and linear (BCI-L)—using previously validated cutoffs. We assessed prognostic ability of BCI for distant recurrence over 10 years (the primary endpoint) and compared it with that of the 21-gene recurrence score and IHC4. We also tested the ability of the assays to predict early (0–5 years) and late (5–10 years) distant recurrence. To assess the ability of the biomarkers to predict recurrence beyond standard clinicopathological variables, we calculated the change in the likelihood-ratio χ2 (LR-Δχ2 ) from Cox proportional hazards models. Findings Suitable tissue was available from 665 patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive, N0 breast cancer for BCI analysis. The primary analysis showed significant differences in risk of distant recurrence over 10 years in the categorical BCI-C risk groups (p<0·0001) with 6·8% (95% CI 4·4–10·0) of patients in the low-risk group, 17·3% (12·0–24·7) in the intermediate group, and 22·2% (15·3–31·5) in the high-risk group having distant recurrence. The secondary analysis showed that BCI-L was a much stronger predictor for overall (0–10 year) distant recurrence compared with BCI-C (interquartile HR 2·30 95% CI 1·62–3·27; LR-Δχ2 =22·69; p<0·0001). When compared with BCI-L, the 21-gene recurrence score was less predictive (HR 1·48 95% CI 1·22–1·78; LR-Δχ2 =13·68; p=0·0002) and IHC4 was similar (HR 1·69 95% CI 1·51–2·56; LR-Δχ2 =22·83; p<0·0001). All further analyses were done with the BCI-L model. In a multivariable analysis, all assays had significant prognostic ability for early distant recurrence (BCI-L HR 2·77 95% CI 1·63–4·70, LR-Δχ2 =15·42, p<0·0001; 21-gene recurrence score HR 1·80 1·42–2·29, LR-Δχ2 =18·48, p<0·0001; IHC4 HR 2·90 2·01–4·18, LR-Δχ2 =29·14, p<0·0001); however, only BCI-L was significant for late distant recurrence (BCI-L HR 1·95 95% CI 1·22–3·14, LR-Δχ2 =7·97, p=0·0048; 21-gene recurrence score HR 1·13 0·82–1·56, LR-Δχ2 =0·48, p=0·47; IHC4 HR 1·30 0·88–1·94, LR-Δχ2 =1·59, p=0·20). Interpretation BCI-L was the only significant prognostic test for risk of both early and late distant recurrence and identified two risk populations for each timeframe. It could help to identify patients at high risk for late distant recurrence who might benefit from extended endocrine or other therapy. Funding Avon Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Breast Cancer Foundation, US Department of Defense Breast Cancer Research Program, Susan G Komen for the Cure, Breakthrough Breast Cancer through the Mary-Jean Mitchell Green Foundation, AstraZeneca, Cancer Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden (London, UK).
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Adjuvant tamoxifen therapy substantially decreases the risk of recurrence and mortality in women with hormone (estrogen and/or progesterone) receptor-positive breast cancer. Previous studies have ...suggested that metabolic conversion of tamoxifen to endoxifen by cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) is required for patient benefit from tamoxifen therapy.
Tumor specimens from a subset of postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive early-stage (stages I, II, and IIIA) breast cancer, who were enrolled in the randomized double-blind Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) clinical trial, were genotyped for variants in CYP2D6 (N = 1203 patients: anastrozole trade name: Arimidex group, n = 615 patients; tamoxifen group, n = 588 patients) and UDP-glucuronosyltransferase-2B7 (UGT2B7), whose gene product inactivates endoxifen (N = 1209 patients; anastrozole group, n = 606 patients; tamoxifen group, n = 603 patients). Genotyping was performed using polymerase chain reaction-based TaqMan assays. Based on the genotypes for CYP2D6, patients were classified as poor metabolizer (PM), intermediate metabolizer (IM), or extensive metabolizer (EM) phenotypes. We evaluated the association of CYP2D6 and UGT2B7 genotype with distant recurrence (primary endpoint) and any recurrence (secondary endpoint) by estimating the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazards models. All statistical tests were two-sided.
After a median follow-up of 10 years, no statistically significant associations were observed between CYP2D6 genotype and recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients (PM vs EM: HR for distant recurrence = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.55 to 3.15, P = .64; HR for any recurrence = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.48 to 2.08, P = .99). A near-null association was observed between UGT2B7 genotype and recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients. No associations were observed between CYP2D6 and UGT2B7 genotypes and recurrence in anastrozole-treated patients.
The results do not support the hypothesis that CYP2D6 genotype predicts clinical benefit of adjuvant tamoxifen treatment among postmenopausal breast cancer patients.
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