Accurate long-term breast cancer risk assessment for women attending routine screening could help reduce the disease burden and intervention-associated harms by personalizing screening ...recommendations and preventive interventions.
To report the accuracy of risk assessment for breast cancer during a period of 19 years.
This cohort study of the Kaiser Permanente Washington breast imaging registry included women without previous breast cancer, aged 40 to 73 years, who attended screening from January 1, 1996, through December 31, 2013. Follow-up was completed on December 31, 2014, and data were analyzed from March 2, 2016, through November 13, 2017.
Risk factors from a questionnaire and breast density from the Breast Imaging and Reporting Data System at entry; primary risk was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick model.
Incidence of invasive breast cancer was estimated with and without breast density. Follow-up began 6 months after the entry mammogram and extended to the earliest diagnosis of invasive breast cancer, censoring at 75 years of age, 2014, diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ, death, or health plan disenrollment. Observed divided by expected (O/E) numbers of cancer cases were compared using exact Poisson 95% CIs. Hazard ratios for the top decile of 10-year risk relative to the middle 80% of the study population were estimated. Constancy of relative risk calibration during follow-up was tested using a time-dependent proportional hazards effect.
In this cohort study of 132 139 women (median age at entry, 50 years; interquartile range, 44-58 years), 2699 invasive breast cancers were subsequently diagnosed after a median 5.2 years of follow-up (interquartile range, 2.4-11.1 years; maximum follow-up, 19 years; annual incidence rate IR per 1000 women, 2.9). Observed number of cancer diagnoses was close to the expected number (O/E for the Tyrer-Cuzick model, 1.02 95% CI, 0.98-1.06; O/E for the Tyrer-Cuzick model with density, 0.98 95% CI, 0.94-1.02). The Tyrer-Cuzick model estimated 2554 women (1.9%) to be at high risk (10-year risk of ≥8%), of whom 147 subsequently developed invasive breast cancer (O/E, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.93; IR per 1000 women, 8.7). The Tyrer-Cuzick model with density estimated more women to be at high risk (4645 3.5%; 273 cancers 10.1%; O/E, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69-0.88; IR per 1000 women, 9.2). The hazard ratio for the highest risk decile compared with the middle 80% was 2.22 (95% CI, 2.02-2.45) for the Tyrer-Cuzick model and 2.55 (95% CI, 2.33-2.80) for the Tyrer-Cuzick model with density. Little evidence was found for a decrease in relative risk calibration throughout follow-up for the Tyrer-Cuzick model (age-adjusted slope, -0.003; 95% CI, -0.018 to 0.012) or the Tyrer-Cuzick model with density (age-adjusted slope, -0.008; 95% CI, -0.020 to 0.004).
Breast cancer risk assessment combining classic risk factors with mammographic density may provide useful data for 10 years or more and could be used to guide long-term, systematic, risk-adapted screening and prevention strategies.
HER2 is overexpressed more frequently in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) than in invasive breast cancer but its prognostic significance and predictive role for radiotherapy has not been clearly ...established. We investigated the prognostic and predictive value of HER2 overexpression in DCIS.
HER2 expression was evaluated by IHC using the HercepTest™ in samples from UK/ANZ DCIS trial participants (n = 755) with IHC 3+ expression categorized as HER2 positive for primary analyses. Sensitivity analyses included HER2 categorization as negative (IHC 0,1+), equivocal (IHC 2+), and positive (IHC 3+) and analyses restricted to a nested case-control component where 181 cases (with recurrence) were matched to 362 controls by treatment arm and age.
Two-hundred and forty-five (34.4%) of evaluable 713 samples 181 ipsilateral breast events (IBE) were HER2 positive. HER2 overexpression was associated with significantly increased risk of IBE HR = 2.29; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.64-3.14; P < 0.0001 and in situ IBE (DCIS-IBE; HR = 2.90; 95% CI, 1.91-4.40; P < 0.0001), but not of invasive IBE (I-IBE; HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 0.81-2.42; P = 0.23; Pheterogeneity = 0.04). Inclusion of HER2 significantly improved Δχ2 (1d.f.) 12.25; P = 0.0005 a prognostic model of clinicopathological and treatment variables, HER2 being an independent predictor of IBE (multivariate HR = 1.91; 95% CI, 1.33-2.76; P = 0.0004). Radiotherapy benefit in preventing DCIS-IBE was significantly greater (Pheterogeneity = 0.04) in HER2-positive DCIS (HR = 0.16; 95% CI, 0.07-0.41) compared with HER2-negative DCIS (HR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.28-1.19).
HER2 overexpression is associated with significantly increased risk of in situ recurrence and is also predictive of radiotherapy benefit, with greater reductions in in situ but not invasive recurrences in HER2-positive DCIS.
Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing provides a much more sensitive method of detection for high-grade lesions than cytology, but specificity is low. Here, we explore the extent to which full HPV ...genotyping, viral load, and multiplicity of types can be used to improve specificity.
A population-based sample of 47,120 women undergoing cervical screening was tested for 13 high-risk HPV genotypes. Positive predictive values (PPV) for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse (CIN2+;
= 3,449) and CIN3 or worse (CIN3+;
= 1,475) over 3 years of follow-up were estimated for HPV genotype and viral load. Weighted multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds of CIN2+ or CIN3+ according to genotype, multiplicity of types, and viral load.
High-risk HPV was detected in 15.4% of women. A hierarchy of HPV genotypes based on sequentially maximizing PPVs for CIN3+ found HPV16>33>31 to be the most predictive, followed sequentially by HPV18>35>58>45>52>59>51>39>56>68. After adjusting for higher ranked genotypes, the inclusion of multiple HPV infections added little to risk prediction. High viral loads for HPV18, 35, 52, and 58 carried more risk than low viral loads for HPV16, 31, and 33. High viral load for HPV16 was significantly more associated with CIN3+ than low viral load.
HPV genotype and viral load, but not multiplicity of HPV infections, are important predictors of CIN2+ and CIN3+.
The ability to identify women at higher risk of CIN2+ and CIN3+ based on both HPV genotype and viral load could be important for individualizing triage plans, particularly as HPV becomes the primary screening test.
The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening study in Manchester, UK, is a prospective study of breast cancer risk estimation. It was designed to assess whether mammographic density may help in ...refinement of breast cancer risk estimation using either the Gail model (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool) or the Tyrer-Cuzick model (International Breast Intervention Study model).
Mammographic density was measured at entry as a percentage visual assessment, adjusted for age and body mass index. Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail 10-year risks were based on a questionnaire completed contemporaneously. Breast cancers were identified at the entry screen or shortly thereafter. The contribution of density to risk models was assessed using odds ratios (ORs) with profile likelihood confidence intervals (CIs) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The calibration of predicted ORs was estimated as a percentage (observed vs expected (O/E) from logistic regression.
The analysis included 50,628 women aged 47-73 years who were recruited between October 2009 and September 2013. Of these, 697 had breast cancer diagnosed after enrolment. Median follow-up was 3.2 years. Breast density interquartile range odds ratio (IQR-OR) 1.48, 95 % CI 1.34-1.63, AUC 0.59 was a slightly stronger univariate risk factor than the Tyrer-Cuzick model IQR-OR 1.36 (95 % CI 1.25-1.48), O/E 60 % (95 % CI 44-74), AUC 0.57 or the Gail model IQR-OR 1.22 (95 % CI 1.12-1.33), O/E 46 % (95 % CI 26-65 %), AUC 0.55. It continued to add information after allowing for Tyrer-Cuzick IQR-OR 1.47 (95 % CI 1.33-1.62), combined AUC 0.61 or Gail IQR-OR 1.45 (95 % CI 1.32-1.60), combined AUC 0.59.
Breast density may be usefully combined with the Tyrer-Cuzick model or the Gail model.
Summary Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is more sensitive for the detection of high-grade cervical lesions than is cytology, but detection of HPV by DNA screening in two screening ...rounds 5 years apart has not been assessed. The aim of this study was to assess whether HPV DNA testing in the first screen decreases detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or worse, CIN grade 2 or worse, and cervical cancer in the second screening. Methods In this randomised trial, women aged 29–56 years participating in the cervical screening programme in the Netherlands were randomly assigned to receive HPV DNA (GP5+/6+-PCR method) and cytology co-testing or cytology testing alone, from January, 1999, to September, 2002. Randomisation (in a 1:1 ratio) was done with computer-generated random numbers after the cervical specimen had been taken. At the second screening 5 years later, HPV DNA and cytology co-testing was done in both groups; researchers were masked to the patient's assignment. The primary endpoint was the number of CIN grade 3 or worse detected. Analysis was done by intention to screen. The trial is now finished and is registered, number ISRCTN20781131. Findings 22 420 women were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 22 518 to the control group; 19 999 in the intervention group and 20 106 in the control group were eligible for analysis at the first screen. At the second screen, 19 579 women in the intervention group and 19 731 in the control group were eligible, of whom 16 750 and 16 743, respectively, attended the second screen. In the second round, CIN grade 3 or worse was less common in the intervention group than in the control group (88 of 19 579 in the intervention group vs 122 of 19 731 in the control group; relative risk 0·73, 95% CI 0·55–0·96; p=0·023). Cervical cancer was also less common in the intervention group than in the control group (four of 19 579 in the intervention group vs 14 of 19 731; 0·29, 0·10–0·87; p=0·031). In the baseline round, detection of CIN grade 3 or worse did not differ significantly between groups (171 of 19 999 vs 150 of 20 106; 1·15, 0·92–1·43; p=0·239) but was significantly more common in women with normal cytology (34 of 19 286 vs 12 of 19 373; 2·85, 1·47–5·49; p=0·001). Furthermore, significantly more cases of CIN grade 2 or worse were detected in the intervention group than in the control group (267 of 19 999 vs 215 of 20 106; 1·25, 1·05–1·50; p=0·015). In the second screen, fewer HPV16-positive CIN grade 3 or worse were detected in the intervention group than in the control group (17 of 9481 vs 35 of 9354; 0·48, 0·27–0·85; p=0·012); detection of non-HPV16-positive CIN grade 3 or worse did not differ between groups (25 of 9481 vs 25 of 9354; 0·99, 0·57–1·72; p=1·00). The cumulative detection of CIN grade 3 or worse and CIN grade 2 or worse did not differ significantly between study arms, neither for the whole study group (CIN grade 3 or worse: 259 of 19 999 vs 272 of 20 106; 0·96, 0·81–1·14, p=0·631; CIN grade 2 or worse: 427 of 19 999 vs 399 of 20 106; 1·08, 0·94–1·24; p=0·292), nor for subgroups of women invited for the first time (CIN grade 3 or worse in women aged 29–33 years: 102 of 3139 vs 105 of 3128; 0·97, 0·74–1·27; CIN grade 2 or worse in women aged 29–33 years: 153 of 3139 vs 151 of 3128; 1·01, 0·81–1·26; CIN grade 3 or worse in women aged 34–56 years: 157 of 16 860 vs 167 of 16 978; 0·95, 0·76–1·18; CIN grade 2 or worse in women aged 34–56 years: 274 of 16 860 vs 248 of 16 978; 1·11, 0·94–1·32). Interpretation Implementation of HPV DNA testing in cervical screening leads to earlier detection of clinically relevant CIN grade 2 or worse, which when adequately treated, improves protection against CIN grade 3 or worse and cervical cancer. Early detection of high-grade cervical legions caused by HPV16 was a major component of this benefit. Our results lend support to the use of HPV DNA testing for all women aged 29 years and older. Funding Zorg Onderzoek Nederland (Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development).
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Summary Background Joint symptoms (eg, arthralgia and arthritis) are a well-known side-effect of aromatase inhibitors. Low oestrogen concentrations and postmenopausal status are associated with the ...development of these symptoms. Chemotherapy can also induce joint symptoms, but tamoxifen seems to have little effect on their incidence. The aim of this study was to assess the relative importance of different risk factors for treatment-emergent joint symptoms in patients assigned to anastrozole or tamoxifen as adjuvant treatment for postmenopausal breast cancer. Methods The Arimidex Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial randomly assigned 9366 postmenopausal women to anastrozole (1 mg/day), to tamoxifen (20 mg/day), or to a combination of both. Our analyses were based on data from case reports of 5433 women who were randomly assigned to anastrozole or tamoxifen, who started with their allocated treatment, and who did not have joint symptoms at entry (anastrozole group: n=2698; tamoxifen group: n=2735). The analysis was restricted to the occurrence of joint symptoms at any time during active treatment or within 14 days of its discontinuation. Joint symptoms were defined as any report of arthralgia, arthrosis, arthritis, or joint disorder on a case-report form. Joint disorders were defined as reports of cervical spondylosis, osteoarthritis, and disc herniation. The date of occurrence was recorded, along with a severity score (ie, mild, moderate, or severe). Our analyses were done by use of logistic regression. The ATAC trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN18233230. Findings 777 of 1914 women (40·6%) who used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) before trial entry developed joint symptoms compared with 1001 of 3519 women (28·4%) without previous HRT use (odds ratio OR 1·72 95% CI 1·53–1·93). Women with hormone-receptor-negative breast cancer developed significantly fewer joint symptoms compared with those with hormone-receptor-positive tumours (124 of 461 26·9% vs 1556 of 4548 34·2%; OR 0·71 0·57–0·88). Women for whom chemotherapy was part of their initial treatment developed significantly more joint symptoms than those who did not receive it (461 of 1219 women 37·8% vs 1317 of 4214 women 31·3%; OR 1·34 1·17–1·53). Obese women (body-mass index BMI >30 kg/m2 ) reported more joint symptoms than women with a BMI of 25–30 kg/m2 or those with a BMI <25 kg/m2 (504 of 1354 women 37·2% vs 502 of 1926 women 31·3%; OR 1·01 (0·88–1·16) vs 592 of 1908 women 31·0%; OR 1·32 (1·14–1·53)) and women on anastrozole reported more joint symptoms compared with those on tamoxifen (949 of 2698 women 35·2% vs 829 of 2735 women 30·3%; OR 1·25 1·11–1·40). All significant risk factors from the univariate analysis were included in a multivariate analysis and remained significant with little change. Interpretation In this trial, the major risk factors for developing joint symptoms were previous HRT, hormone-receptor positivity, previous chemotherapy, obesity, and treatment with anastrozole. Discussion of identified risk factors is appropriate when counselling women before initiation of adjuvant hormonal treatment. Funding This study was funded by Cancer Research UK and AstraZeneca (Macclesfield, UK).
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Abstract In this population-based US study, the overall prevalence of Mycoplasma genitalium was 1.95% (95% confidence interval CI, 1.62%–2.34%), declining from 6.12% (95% CI, 4.72%–7.92%) in women ...aged 21 to 24 years to 0.48% (95% CI, 0.25%–0.94%) in women aged 40 to 64 years. The prevalence of coinfections with Chlamydia trachomatis and Trichomonas vaginalis was low.
Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related screening technologies and HPV vaccination offer enormous potential for cancer prevention, notably prevention of cervical cancer. The effectiveness of these ...approaches is, however, suboptimal owing to limited implementation of screening programmes and restricted indications for HPV vaccination. Trials of HPV vaccination in women aged up to 55 years have shown almost 90% protection from cervical precancer caused by HPV16/18 among HPV16/18-DNA-negative women. We propose extending routine vaccination programmes to women of up to 30 years of age (and to the 45-50-year age groups in some settings), paired with at least one HPV-screening test at age 30 years or older. Expanding the indications for HPV vaccination and much greater use of HPV testing in screening programmes has the potential to accelerate the decline in cervical cancer incidence. Such a combined protocol would represent an attractive approach for many health-care systems, in particular, countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia, and some more-developed parts of Africa. The role of vaccination in women aged >30 years and the optimal number of HPV-screening tests required in vaccinated women remain important research issues. Cost-effectiveness models will help determine the optimal combination of HPV vaccination and screening in public health programmes, and to estimate the effects of such approaches in different populations.
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High‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) DNA tests have excellent sensitivity for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or higher (CIN2+). A drawback of hrHPV screening, however, is modest ...specificity. Therefore, hrHPV‐positive women might need triage to reduce adverse events and costs associated with unnecessary colposcopy. We compared the performance of HPV16/18 genotyping with a predefined DNA methylation triage test (S5) based on target regions of the human gene EPB41L3, and viral late gene regions of HPV16, HPV18, HPV31 and HPV33. Assays were run using exfoliated cervical specimens from 710 women attending routine screening, of whom 38 were diagnosed with CIN2+ within a year after triage to colposcopy based on cytology and 341 were hrHPV positive. Sensitivity and specificity of the investigated triage methods were compared by McNemar's test. At the predefined cutoff, S5 showed better sensitivity than HPV16/18 genotyping (74% vs 54%, P = 0.04) in identifying CIN2+ in hrHPV‐positive women, and similar specificity (65% vs 71%, P = 0.07). When the S5 cutoff was altered to allow equal sensitivity to that of genotyping, a significantly higher specificity of 91% was reached (P < 0.0001). Thus, a DNA methylation test for the triage of hrHPV‐positive women on original screening specimens might be a valid approach with better performance than genotyping.
What's new?
DNA testing for high‐risk human papillomaviruses (hrHPVs) can both detect and predict the development of precancerous cervical lesions. Limitations in specificity, however, necessitate the generation of triage strategies to minimize unneeded colposcopy among hrHPV‐positive women. According to this study, triage may be readily affected using a DNA methylation classifier based on the human gene EPB41L3 and the late gene regions of HPV16, HPV18, HPV31 and HPV33. The devised classifier outperformed triage by HPV16/18 genotyping in a cohort of hrHPV‐positive patients. The strategy could fill a key role in hrHPV triage in cervical screening programs.
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