Short-Term Load Forecasting is critical for reliable power system operation, and the search for enhanced methodologies has been a constant field of investigation, particularly in an increasingly ...competitive environment where the market operator and its participants need to better inform their decisions. Hence, it is important to continue advancing in terms of forecasting accuracy and consistency. This paper presents a new deep learning-based ensemble methodology for 24 h ahead load forecasting, where an automatic framework is proposed to select the best Box-Jenkins models (ARIMA Forecasters), from a wide-range of combinations. The method is distinct in its parameters but more importantly in considering different batches of historical (training) data, thus benefiting from prediction models focused on recent and longer load trends. Afterwards, these accurate predictions, mainly the linear components of the load time-series, are fed to the ensemble Deep Forward Neural Network. This flexible type of network architecture not only functions as a combiner but also receives additional historical and auxiliary data to further its generalization capabilities. Numerical testing using New England market data validated the proposed ensemble approach with diverse base forecasters, achieving promising results in comparison with other state-of-the-art methods.
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Wind power production is uncertain. The imbalance between committed and delivered energy in pool markets leads to the increase of system costs, which must be incurred by defaulting producers, thereby ...decreasing their revenues. To avoid this situation, wind producers can submit their bids together with hydro resources. Then the mismatches between the predicted and supplied wind power can be used by hydro producers, turbining or pumping such differences when convenient. This study formulates the problem of hydro-wind production optimization in operation contexts of pool market. The problem is solved for a simple three-reservoir cascade case to discuss optimization results. The results show a depreciation in optimal revenues from hydro power when wind forecasting is uncertain. The depreciation is caused by an asymmetry in optimal revenues from positive and negative wind power mismatches. The problem of neutralizing the effect of forecasting uncertainty is subsequently formulated and solved for the three-reservoir case. The results are discussed to conclude the impacts of uncertainty on joint bidding in pool market contexts.
A key event in atherogenesis is the formation of lipid‐loaded macrophages, lipidotic cells, which exhibit irreversible accumulation of undigested modified low‐density lipoproteins (LDL) in lysosomes. ...This event culminates in the loss of cell homeostasis, inflammation, and cell death. Nevertheless, the exact chemical etiology of atherogenesis and the molecular and cellular mechanisms responsible for the impairment of lysosome function in plaque macrophages are still unknown. Here, we demonstrate that macrophages exposed to cholesteryl hemiazelate (ChA), one of the most prevalent products of LDL‐derived cholesteryl ester oxidation, exhibit enlarged peripheral dysfunctional lysosomes full of undigested ChA and neutral lipids. Both lysosome area and accumulation of neutral lipids are partially irreversible. Interestingly, the dysfunctional peripheral lysosomes are more prone to fuse with the plasma membrane, secreting their undigested luminal content into the extracellular milieu with potential consequences for the pathology. We further demonstrate that this phenotype is mechanistically linked to the nuclear translocation of the MiT/TFE family of transcription factors. The induction of lysosome biogenesis by ChA appears to partially protect macrophages from lipid‐induced cytotoxicity. In sum, our data show that ChA is involved in the etiology of lysosome dysfunction and promotes the exocytosis of these organelles. This latter event is a new mechanism that may be important in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis.
We show that cholesteryl hemiazelate, an end‐product of LDL‐derived cholesteryl ester oxidation, is involved in the etiology of lysosome dysfunction in atherosclerotic macrophages and promotes the exocytosis of these dysfunctional organelles. We further demonstrate that this phenotype is mechanistically linked to the nuclear translocation of the MiT/TFE family of transcription factors that protects macrophages from lipid‐induced cytotoxicity.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper presents a virtual inertia and mechanical power-based control strategy to provide a stable operation of the power grid under high penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs). The ...proposed control technique is based on a new active and reactive power-based dynamic model with the permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) swing equation, in which all PMSG features i.e., inertia and mechanical power are embedded within the controller as the main contribution of this paper. To present an accurate analysis of the virtual PMSG-based parameters, the desired zero dynamics of the grid angular frequency are considered to evaluate the effects of virtual mechanical power (VMP) on the active and reactive power sharing, as well as the investigation of virtual inertia variations for the grid angular frequency responses. Moreover, by considering various active power errors and virtual inertia, the impacts of active power error on reactive power in the proposed control technique, are precisely assessed. Simulation results are employed in Matlab/Simulink software to verify the stabilizing abilities of the proposed control technique.
This paper shows the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in Li-ion battery charging methods by introducing a new charging algorithm based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The proposed ...charging algorithm is able to find an optimized charging current profile, through ANNs, considering the real-time conditions of the Li-ion batteries. To test and validate the proposed approach, a low-cost battery management system (BMS) was developed, supporting up to 168 cells in series and n cells in parallel. When compared with the multistage charging algorithm, the proposed charging algorithm revealed a shorter charging time (7.85%) and a smaller temperature increase (32.95%). Thus, the results show that the proposed algorithm based on AI is able to effectively charge and balance batteries and can be regarded as a subject of interest for future research.
The increasing volatility in electricity markets has reinforced the need for better trading strategies by both sellers and buyers to limit the exposure to losses. Accordingly, this paper proposes an ...electricity trading strategy based on a mid-term forecast of the average spot price and a risk premium analysis based on this forecast. This strategy can help traders (buyers and sellers) decide whether to trade in the futures market (of varying monthly maturity) or to wait and trade in the spot market. The forecast model consists of an Artificial Neural Network trained with the Long Short Term Memory architecture to predict the average monthly spot prices, using only market price-related data as input variables. Statistical analysis verified the correlation and dependency between variables. The forecast model was trained, validated and tested with price data from the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), in particular the Spanish zone, between January 2015 and August 2019. The last year of this period was reserved for testing the performance of the proposed forecast model and trading strategy. For comparison purposes, the results of a forecasting model trained with the Extreme Learning Machine over the same period are also presented. In addition, the forecasted value of the average monthly spot price was used to perform a risk premium analysis. The results were promising, as they indicated benefits for traders adopting the proposed trading strategy, proving the potential of the forecast model and the risk premium analysis based on this forecast.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This paper provides virtual inertia and mechanical power-based double synchronous controller (DSC) for power converters based on the d- and q-components of the converter current to assure the stable ...operation of the grid with the penetration of large-scale renewable energy resources (RERs). The DSC is projected based on emulating both the inertia and mechanical power variables of the synchronous generators (SGs), and its performance is compared with a non-synchronous controller (NSC) that is without these emulations. The main contributions of the DSC are providing a large margin of stability for the power grid with a wide area of low and high values of virtual inertia, also improving significantly power grid stability (PGS) with changing properly the embedded virtual variables of inertia, mechanical power, and also mechanical power error. Also, decoupling features of the proposed DSC in which both d and q components are completely involved with the characteristics of SGs as well as the relationship between the interfaced converter and dynamic models of SGs are other important contributions of the DSC over the existing control methods. Embedding some coefficients for the proposed DSC to show its robustness against the unknown intrinsic property of parameters is another contribution in this paper. Moreover, several transfer functions are achieved and analyzed that confirm a more stable performance of the emulated controller in comparison with the NSC for power-sharing characteristics. Simulation results confirm the superiority of the proposed DSC in comparison with other existing control techniques, e.g., the NSC techniques.
From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations ...in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01%) was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual) or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related). Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in relation to changing physical forcing which is fundamental to improve predictability of future prospects under climate change.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper presents the analytical analysis of the sinusoidal ground electrode commonly used in Portugal by the Portuguese Electric Company. This electrode is easy to install, particularly for two ...layer soils with rocky bottom layer, and costs much less than it does a strip conductor. Both the theoretical results as well as measurements in the field have shown that the empirical model used by the company leads to large errors. Here the authors propose a new procedure to calculate the grounding resistance for this type of electrode using the average resistance between the wire and strip electrodes, which the calculation is well-established. To avoid heavy computation, the authors also propose the use of simple formulas in order to easily compute the strip resistance. The theoretical results and field measurements are compared and show the validity of the procedure being proposed here.
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IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
is a commercial seaweed consumed all over the world, mostly in the shape of nori sheets used for "sushi" preparation. It is a well-known part of the Asian diet with health benefits, which have been ...associated, among others, to the high levels of
-3 and
6 fatty acids in this red alga. However, other highly valued lipids of
are polar lipids that remain largely undescribed and can have both nutritional value and bioactivity, thus could contribute to the valorization of this seaweed. In this context, the present work aims to identify the lipidome of two life cycle stages of the Atlantic species
: the early life stage conchocelis produced in an indoor-nursery, and young blades produced outdoors using an integrated multitrophic aquaculture (IMTA) framework. Both the blades (gametophyte) and conchocelis (sporophyte) are commercialized in the food and cosmetics sectors. Liquid chromatography coupled to Q-Exactive high resolution-mass spectrometry (MS) platform was used to gain insight into the lipidome of these species. Our results allowed the identification of 110 and 100 lipid molecular species in the lipidome of the blade and conchocelis, respectively. These lipid molecular species were distributed as follows (blade/conchocelis): 14/15 glycolipids (GLs), 93/79 phospholipids (PLs), and 3/6 betaine lipids. Both life stages displayed a similar profile of GLs and comprised 20:4(
-6) and 20:5(
-3) fatty acids that contribute to
-3 and
-6 fatty acid pool recorded and rank among the molecular species with higher potential bioactivity. PLs' profile was different between the two life stages surveyed, mainly due to the number and relative abundance of molecular species. This finding suggests that differences between both life stages were more likely related with shifts in the lipids of extraplastidial membranes rather than in plastidial membranes. PLs contained
-6 and
-3 precursors and in both life stages of
the
-6/
-3 ratio recorded was less than 2, highlighting the potential benefits of using these life stages in human diet to prevent chronic diseases. Atherogenic and thrombogenic indexes of blades (0.85 and 0.49, respectively) and conchocelis (0.34 and 0.30, respectively) are much lower than those reported for other Rhodophyta, which highlights their potential application as food or as functional ingredients. Overall, MS-based platforms represent a powerful tool to characterize lipid metabolism and target lipids along different life stages of algal species displaying complex life cycles (such as
), contributing to their biotechnological application.
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