We present results from a data challenge posed to the radial velocity (RV) community: namely, to quantify the Bayesian "evidence" for n = {0, 1, 2, 3} planets in a set of synthetically generated RV ...data sets containing a range of planet signals. Participating teams were provided the same likelihood function and set of priors to use in their analysis. They applied a variety of methods to estimate , the marginal likelihood for each n-planet model, including cross-validation, the Laplace approximation, importance sampling, and nested sampling. We found the dispersion in across different methods grew with increasing n-planet models: ∼3 for zero planets, ∼10 for one planet, ∼102-103 for two planets, and >104 for three planets. Most internal estimates of uncertainty in for individual methods significantly underestimated the observed dispersion across all methods. Methods that adopted a Monte Carlo approach by comparing estimates from multiple runs yielded plausible uncertainties. Finally, two classes of numerical algorithms (those based on importance and nested samplers) arrived at similar conclusions regarding the ratio of for n- and (n + 1)-planet models. One analytic method (the Laplace approximation) demonstrated comparable performance. We express both optimism and caution: we demonstrate that it is practical to perform rigorous Bayesian model comparison for models of ≤3 planets, yet robust planet discoveries require researchers to better understand the uncertainty in and its connections to model selection.
The detection of a low-mass exoplanet on a relatively wide orbit has implications for models of planetary formation and evolution, and could open the door to a new era of exoplanet characterization.
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KISLJ, NUK, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Context.
It is common practice to claim the detection of a signal if, for a certain statistical significance metric, the signal significance exceeds a certain threshold fixed in advance. In the ...context of exoplanet searches in radial velocity data, the most common statistical significance metrics are the Bayes factor and the false alarm probability (FAP). Both criteria have proved useful, but do not directly address whether an exoplanet detection should be claimed. Furthermore, it is unclear which detection threshold should be taken and how robust the detections are to model misspecification.
Aims.
The aim of the present work is to define a detection criterion that conveys as precisely as possible the information needed to claim an exoplanet detection, as well as efficient numerical methods to compute it. We compare this new criterion to existing ones in terms of sensitivity and robustness to a change in the model.
Methods.
We define a general detection criterion called the false inclusion probability (FIP). In the context of exoplanet detections it provides the posterior probability of presence of a planet with a period in a certain interval. Posterior distributions are computed with the nested sampling package
POLYCHORD
. We show that for FIP and Bayes factor calculations, defining priors on linear parameters as Gaussian mixture models can significantly speed up computations. The performance of the FAP, Bayes factor, and FIP are studied via simulations and analytical arguments. We compare the methods assuming the model is correct, then evaluate their sensitivity to the prior and likelihood choices.
Results.
Among other properties, the FIP offers ways to test the reliability of the significance levels; it is a particularly efficient way to account for aliasing, and it allows the presence of planets to be excluded with a certain confidence. In our simulations, we find that the FIP outperforms existing detection metrics. We show that low amplitude planet detections are sensitive to priors on period and semi-amplitude, which will require further attention for the detection of Earth-like planets. We recommend to let the parameters of the noise model free in the analysis, rather than fixing a noise model based on a fit to ancillary indicators.
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FMFMET, NUK, UL, UM, UPUK
Context. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is revolutionising the search for planets orbiting bright and nearby stars. In sectors 3 and 4, TESS observed TOI-402 (TIC-120896927), a ...bright V = 9.1 K1 dwarf also known as HD 15337, and found two transiting signals with periods of 4.76 and 17.18 days and radii of 1.90 and 2.21 R⊕, respectively. This star was observed prior to the TESS detection as part of the radial-velocity (RV) search for planets using the HARPS spectrometer, and 85 precise RV measurements were obtained before the launch of TESS over a period of 14 yr. Aims. In this paper, we analyse the HARPS RV measurements in hand to confirm the planetary nature of these two signals. Methods. HD 15337 happens to present a stellar activity level similar to the Sun, with a magnetic cycle of similar amplitude and RV measurements that are affected by stellar activity. By modelling this stellar activity in the HARPS radial velocities using a linear dependence with the calcium activity index log(RHK′) $\log(R^{\prime}_{\textrm{HK}})$ log(RHK′) , we are able, with a periodogram approach, to confirm the periods and the planetary nature of TOI-402.01 and TOI-402.02. We then derive robust estimates from the HARPS RVs for the orbital parameters of these two planets by modelling stellar activity with a Gaussian process and using the marginalised posterior probability density functions obtained from our analysis of TESS photometry for the orbital period and time of transit. Results. By modelling TESS photometry and the stellar host characteristics, we find that TOI-402.01 and TOI-402.02 have periods of 4.75642 ± 0.00021 and 17.1784 ± 0.0016 days and radii of 1.70 ± 0.06 and 2.52 ± 0.11 R⊕ (precision 3.6 and 4.2%), respectively. By analysing the HARPS RV measurements, we find that those planets are both super-Earths with masses of 7.20 ± 0.81 and 8.79 ± 1.68 M⊕ (precision 11.3 and 19.1%), and small eccentricities compatible with zero at 2σ. Conclusions. Although having rather similar masses, the radii of these two planets are very different, putting them on different sides of the radius gap. By studying the temporal evolution under X-ray and UV (XUV) driven atmospheric escape of the TOI-402 planetary system, we confirm, under the given assumptions, that photo-evaporation is a plausible explanation for this radius difference. Those two planets, being in the same system and therefore being in the same irradiation environment are therefore extremely useful for comparative exoplanetology across the evaporation valley and thus bring constraints on the mechanisms responsible for the radius gap.
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We present the discovery from Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data of LTT 1445Ab. At a distance of 6.9 pc, it is the second nearest transiting exoplanet system found to date, and the ...closest one known for which the primary is an M dwarf. The host stellar system consists of three mid-to-late M dwarfs in a hierarchical configuration, which are blended in one TESS pixel. We use MEarth data and results from the Science Processing Operations Center data validation report to determine that the planet transits the primary star in the system. The planet has a radius of , an orbital period of days, and an equilibrium temperature of K. With radial velocities from the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher, we place a 3 upper mass limit of 8.4 on the planet. LTT 1445Ab provides one of the best opportunities to date for the spectroscopic study of the atmosphere of a terrestrial world. We also present a detailed characterization of the host stellar system. We use high-resolution spectroscopy and imaging to rule out the presence of any other close stellar or brown dwarf companions. Nineteen years of photometric monitoring of A and BC indicate a moderate amount of variability, in agreement with that observed in the TESS light-curve data. We derive a preliminary astrometric orbit for the BC pair that reveals an edge-on and eccentric configuration. The presence of a transiting planet in this system hints that the entire system may be co-planar, implying that the system may have formed from the early fragmentation of an individual protostellar core.
Knowledge of the 10B microdistribution is of great relevance in BNCT studies. Since 10B concentration assesment through neutron autoradiography depends on the correct quantification of tracks in a ...nuclear track detector, image acquisition and processing conditions should be controlled and verified, in order to obtain accurate results to be applied in the frame of BNCT. With this aim, an image verification process was proposed, based on parameters extracted from the quantified nuclear tracks. Track characterization was performed by selecting a set of morphological and pixel-intensity uniformity parameters from the quantified objects (area, diameter, roundness, aspect ratio, heterogeneity and clumpiness). Their distributions were studied, leading to the observation of varying behaviours in images generated by different samples and acquisition conditions. The distributions corresponding to samples coming from the BNC reaction showed similar attributes in each analyzed parameter, proving to be robust to the experimental process, but sensitive to light and focus conditions. Considering those observations, a manual feature extraction was performed as a pre-processing step. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a fully dense Neural Network (NN) were optimized, trained, and tested. The final performance metrics were similar for both models: 93%-93% for the SVM, vs 94%-95% for the NN in accuracy and precision respectively. Based on the distribution of the predicted class probabilities, the latter had a better capacity to reject inadequate images, so the NN was selected to perform the image verification step prior to quantification. The trained NN was able to correctly classify the images regardless of their track density. The exhaustive characterization of the nuclear tracks provided new knowledge related to the autoradiographic images generation. The inclusion of machine learning in the analysis workflow proves to optimize the boron determination process and paves the way for further applications in the field of boron imaging.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We report the discovery of TOI-4127 b, which is a transiting, Jupiter-sized exoplanet on a long period (P=56.39879 +0.00010-0.00010days) and a high-eccentricity orbit around a late F-type dwarf star. ...This warm Jupiter was first detected and identified as a promising candidate from a search for single-transit signals in TESS Sector 20 data and was later characterized as a planet following two subsequent transits (TESS Sectors 26 and 53) and follow-up ground-based RV observations with the NEID and SOPHIE spectrographs. We jointly fit the transit and RV data to constrain the physical (Rp=1.096+0.039-0.032RJ, Mp=2.30+0.11-0.11MJ) and orbital parameters of the exoplanet. Given its high orbital eccentricity (𝓮=0.7471+0.0078-0.0086), TOI-4127 b is a compelling candidate for studies of warm Jupiter populations and of hot Jupiter formation pathways. We show that the present periastron separation of TOI-4127 b is too large for high-eccentricity tidal migration to circularize its orbit, and that TOI-4127 b is unlikely to be a hot Jupiter progenitor unless it is undergoing angular momentum exchange with an undetected outer companion. Although we find no evidence for an external companion, the available observational data are insufficient to rule out the presence of a perturber that can excite eccentricity oscillations and facilitate tidal migration.
ABSTRACT We report the discovery of two transiting planets detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), TOI-2374 b and TOI-3071 b, orbiting a K5V and an F8V star, respectively, with ...periods of 4.31 and 1.27 d, respectively. We confirm and characterize these two planets with a variety of ground-based and follow-up observations, including photometry, precise radial velocity monitoring and high-resolution imaging. The planetary and orbital parameters were derived from a joint analysis of the radial velocities and photometric data. We found that the two planets have masses of (57 ± 4) M⊕ or (0.18 ± 0.01) MJ, and (68 ± 4) M⊕ or (0.21 ± 0.01) MJ, respectively, and they have radii of (6.8 ± 0.3) R⊕ or (0.61 ± 0.03) RJ and (7.2 ± 0.5) R⊕ or (0.64 ± 0.05) RJ, respectively. These parameters correspond to sub-Saturns within the Neptunian desert, both planets being hot and highly irradiated, with Teq ≈ 745 K and Teq ≈ 1812 K, respectively, assuming a Bond albedo of 0.5. TOI-3071 b has the hottest equilibrium temperature of all known planets with masses between 10 and 300 M⊕ and radii less than 1.5 RJ. By applying gas giant evolution models we found that both planets, especially TOI-3071 b, are very metal-rich. This challenges standard formation models which generally predict lower heavy-element masses for planets with similar characteristics. We studied the evolution of the planets’ atmospheres under photoevaporation and concluded that both are stable against evaporation due to their large masses and likely high metallicities in their gaseous envelopes.
Inflammatory arthritis defines a family of diseases influenced by reproductive hormones. Vasoinhibin, a fragment of the hormone prolactin (PRL), has antiangiogenic and proinflammatory properties. We ...recently showed that vasoinhibin reduces joint inflammation and bone loss in severe antigen-induced arthritis (AIA) by an indirect mechanism involving the inhibition of pannus vascularization. This unexpected finding led us to hypothesize that a severe level of inflammation in AIA obscured the direct proinflammatory action of vasoinhibin while allowing the indirect anti-inflammatory effect via its antiangiogenic properties. In agreement with this hypothesis, here we show that the intra-articular injection of an adeno-associated virus type-2 vector encoding vasoinhibin reduced joint inflammation in a severe AIA condition, but elevated joint inflammation in a mild AIA model. The proinflammatory effect, unmasked in mild AIA, resulted in joint swelling, enhanced leukocyte infiltration, and upregulation of expression of genes encoding proinflammatory mediators (Il1b, Il6, Inos, Mmp3), adhesion molecule (Icam1), and chemokines (Cxcl1, Cxcl2, Cxcl3, Ccl2). Furthermore, vasoinhibin induced the expression of proinflammatory mediators and chemokines in cultured synovial fibroblasts through nuclear factor-κB. Finally, matrix metalloproteases and cathepsin D, upregulated in the arthritic joint, cleaved PRL to vasoinhibin, and vasoinhibin levels increased in the circulation of mice subjected to AIA. We suggest that vasoinhibin is generated during inflammatory arthritis and acts on synovial fibroblasts and endothelial cells to initially promote and later inhibit inflammation, respectively. These opposite effects may work together to help keep joint inflammation under balance.
The term inflammatory arthritis defines a family of diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), caused by an overactive immune system, and influenced by host aspects including sex, reproductive ...state, and stress. Prolactin (PRL) is a sexually dimorphic, reproductive, stress-related hormone long-linked to RA under the general assumption that it aggravates the disease. However, this conclusion remains controversial since PRL has both negative and positive outcomes in RA that may depend on the hormone circulating levels, synthesis by joint tissues, and complex interactions at the inflammatory milieu. The inflamed joint is rich in matrix metalloproteases that cleave PRL to vasoinhibin, a PRL fragment with proinflammatory effects and the ability to inhibit the hyperpermeability and growth of blood vessels. This review addresses this field with the idea that explanatory mechanisms lie within the PRL/vasoinhibin axis, an integrative framework influencing not only the levels of systemic and local PRL, but also the proteolytic conversion of PRL to vasoinhibin, as vasoinhibin itself has dual actions on joint inflammation. In this review, we discuss recent findings from mouse models suggesting the upregulation of endogenous vasoinhibin by the pro-inflammatory environment and showing dichotomous actions and signaling mechanisms of PRL and vasoinhibin on joint inflammation that are cell-specific and context-dependent. We hypothesize that these opposing actions work together to balance the inflammatory response and provide new insights for understanding the pathophysiology of RA and the development of new treatments.
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