ADITIONAL APPLICATIONS OF THE D-PHASE DATASETS Rotach, Mathias W.; Ambrosetti, Paolo; Ament, Felix ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
09/2009, Volume:
90, Issue:
9
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
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43.
MAP D-PHASE Rotach, Matthias W; Ambrosetti, Paolo; Ament, Felix ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
09/2009, Volume:
90, Issue:
9
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Generally, a FDP aims at demonstrating the advances a research and development activity (or any other trigger) has brought to operational atmospheric forecasting. ... a FDP * deals with the forecast ...of weather with international relevance (high-impact weather); * demonstrates a clear advance in forecasting capability; * provides clear evaluation protocols; and * is characterized by an expectation of success.
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A semi-geostrophic model of frontal passage over topography was developed to examine the effects of the interaction of a well developed front with an isolated mountain, and the subsequent ...orographically induced flow evolution. The analytic representation of the primary wave and its frontal structure gives us the ability to control the environmental and geometrical constraints and perform an exploration of parameter space. A number of problems appearing because of this approach are discussed. The results shown relate the characteristics of the orographic perturbation to varying amplitude of the primary wave and varying frontal intensity, but suggest that the representation of flow blocking by the mountain, which this model lacks, is crucial for the representation of frontal intensification in the lee of orography.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is ...performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.
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