Ecosystem management as a wicked problem DeFries, Ruth; Nagendra, Harini
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
04/2017, Volume:
356, Issue:
6335
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Ecosystems are self-regulating systems that provide societies with food, water, timber, and other resources. As demands for resources increase, management decisions are replacing self-regulating ...properties. Counter to previous technical approaches that applied simple formulas to estimate sustainable yields of single species, current research recognizes the inherent complexity of ecosystems and the inability to foresee all consequences of interventions across different spatial, temporal, and administrative scales. Ecosystem management is thus more realistically seen as a “wicked problem” that has no clear-cut solution. Approaches for addressing such problems include multisector decision-making, institutions that enable management to span across administrative boundaries, adaptive management, markets that incorporate natural capital, and collaborative processes to engage diverse stakeholders and address inequalities. Ecosystem management must avoid two traps: falsely assuming a tame solution and inaction from overwhelming complexity. An incremental approach can help to avoid these traps.
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China is facing both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and micronutrient deficiency, which have been largely related to transitions within Chinese diets, for example, the overconsumption of vegetable ...oils and animal-source products and decreasing consumption of coarse staple foods. In this study, we use three metrics-dietary diversity score (DDS), staple diversity score (SDS) and the proportion of coarse staple consumption (PoCS)- to investigate overall dietary transitions as well as trends in staple food consumption for nine provinces in China from 1997 to 2009. We also investigated how household characteristics, community urbanicity, and provincial conditions have affected household diets and the relationship between overall diet and staple diet across socio-economic gradients. Overall dietary diversity (DDS) showed consistent growth across all the provinces and subpopulations and was strongly associated with a household's socio-economic status. However, staple indicators (SDS and PoCS) showed notable difference both geographically and socio-economically. The relationship between overall dietary indicator (DDS) and staple indicators (SDS, PoCS) across SES gradients revealed that education is a more important influence than income in ensuring dietary balance and nutritional quality. Our findings show that programs aimed at promoting dietary balance and healthy staple diets must account for differences between provinces in terms of agronomic, nutritional, social, and economic conditions. By identifying the socio-economic characteristics and locations of the most nutritionally vulnerable populations, this study also points toward the need for policies that incorporate nutritional considerations into grain production systems and provide a strategy for enhancing China's national food security.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Not long ago, the future seemed predictable. Now, certainty about
the course of civilization has given way to fear and doubt. Raging
fires, ravaging storms, political upheavals, financial collapse,
...and deadly pandemics lie ahead-or are already here. The world feels
less comprehensible and more dangerous, and no one, from
individuals to businesses and governments, knows how to navigate
the path forward. Ruth DeFries argues that a surprising set of
time-tested strategies from the natural world can help humanity
weather these crises. Through trial and error over the eons, life
has evolved astonishing and counterintuitive tricks in order to
survive. DeFries details how a handful of fundamental
strategies-investments in diversity, redundancy over efficiency,
self-correcting feedbacks, and decisions based on bottom-up
knowledge-enable life to persist through unpredictable, sudden
shocks. Lessons for supply chains from a leaf's intricate network
of veins and stock market-saving "circuit breakers" patterned on
planetary cycles reveal the power of these approaches for modern
life. With humility and willingness to apply nature's experience to
our human-constructed world, DeFries demonstrates, we can withstand
uncertain and perilous times. Exploring the lessons that life on
Earth can teach us about coping with complexity, What Would
Nature Do? offers timely options for civilization to
reorganize for a safe and prosperous future.
Over the last several decades, voluntary certification programs have become a key approach to promote sustainable supply chains for agricultural commodities. These programs provide premiums and other ...benefits to producers for adhering to environmental and labor practices established by the certifying entities. Following the principles of Cochrane Reviews used in health sciences, we assess evidence to evaluate whether voluntary certification of tropical agricultural commodities (bananas, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, and tea) has achieved environmental benefits and improved economic and social outcomes for small-scale producers at the level of the farm household. We reviewed over 2600 papers in the peer-review literature and identified 24 cases of unique combinations of study area, certification program, and commodity in 16 papers that rigorously analyzed differences between treatment (certified households) and control groups (uncertified households) for a wide range of response variables. Based on analysis of 347 response variables reported in these papers, we conclude that certification is associated on average with positive outcomes for 34% of response variables, no significant difference for 58% of variables, and negative outcomes for 8% of variables. No significant differences were observed for different categories of responses (environmental, economic and social) or for different commodities (banana, coffee and tea), except negative outcomes were significantly less for environmental than other outcome categories (p = 0.01). Most cases (20 out of 24) investigated coffee certification and response variables were inconsistent across cases, indicating the paucity of studies to conduct a conclusive meta-analysis. The somewhat positive results indicate that voluntary certification programs can sometimes play a role in meeting sustainable development goals and do not support the view that such programs are merely greenwashing. However, results also indicate that certification is not a panacea to improve social outcomes or overall incomes of smallholder farmers. Rigorous analysis, standardized criteria, and independent evaluation are needed to assess effectiveness of certification programs in the future.
Models of atmospheric composition rely on fire emissions inventories to reconstruct and project impacts of biomass burning on air quality, public health, climate, ecosystem dynamics, and ...land-atmosphere exchanges. Many such global inventories use satellite measurements of active fires and/or burned area from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). However, differences across inventories in the interpretation of satellite imagery, the emissions factors assumed for different components of smoke, and the adjustments made for small and obscured fires can result in large regional differences in fire emissions estimates across inventories. Using Google Earth Engine, we leverage 15 years (2003–2017) of MODIS observations and 6 years (2012–2017) of observations from the higher spatial resolution Visible Imaging Infrared Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor to develop metrics to quantify five major sources of spatial bias or uncertainty in the inventories: (1) primary reliance on active fires versus burned area, (2) cloud/haze burden on the ability of satellites to “see” fires, (3) fragmentation of burned area, (4) roughness in topography, and (5) small fires, which are challenging to detect. Based on all these uncertainties, we devise comprehensive “relative fire confidence scores,” mapped globally at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution over 2003–2017.
We then focus on fire activity in Indonesia as a case study to analyze how the choice of a fire emissions inventory affects model estimates of smoke-induced health impacts across Equatorial Asia. We use the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and apply emissions of particulate organic carbon and black carbon (OC + BC smoke) from five global inventories: Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv4s), Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINNv1.5), Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.2), Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFEDv2.5r1), and Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEERv1.0-G1.2). We find that modeled monthly smoke PM2.5 in Singapore from 2003 to 2016 correlates with observed smoke PM2.5, with r ranging from 0.64–0.84 depending on the inventory. However, during the burning season (July to October) of high fire intensity years (e.g., 2006 and 2015), the magnitude of mean Jul-Oct modeled smoke PM2.5 can differ across inventories by >20 μg m−3 (>500%). Using the relative fire confidence metrics, we deduce that uncertainties in this region arise primarily from the small, fragmented fire landscape and very poor satellite observing conditions due to clouds and thick haze at this time of year. Indeed, we find that modeled smoke PM2.5 using GFASv1.2, which adjusts for fires obscured by clouds and thick haze and accounts for peatland emissions, is most consistent with observations in Singapore, as well as in Malaysia and Indonesia. Finally, we develop an online app called FIRECAM for end-users of global fire emissions inventories. The app diagnoses differences in emissions among the five inventories and gauges the relative uncertainty associated with satellite-observed fires on a regional basis.
•Large regional discrepancies in fire emissions exist among five global inventories.•We develop metrics in Google Earth Engine to assess spatial biases in inventories.•Inventory choice can significantly bias modeled smoke PM2.5 for Equatorial Asia.•Peat delineation and cloud-gap adjustment are crucial for Indonesian fire emissions.•We develop an online app (FIRECAM) to help end-users assess fire inventories.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Since at least the 1980s, many farmers in northwest India have switched to mechanized combine harvesting to boost efficiency. This harvesting technique leaves abundant crop residue on the fields, ...which farmers typically burn to prepare their fields for subsequent planting. A key question is to what extent the large quantity of smoke emitted by these fires contributes to the already severe pollution in Delhi and across other parts of the heavily populated Indo-Gangetic Plain located downwind of the fires. Using a combination of observed and modeled variables, including surface measurements of PM2.5, we quantify the magnitude of the influence of agricultural fire emissions on surface air pollution in Delhi. With surface measurements, we first derive the signal of regional PM2.5 enhancements (i.e. the pollution above an anthropogenic baseline) during each post-monsoon burning season for 2012-2016. We next use the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT) to simulate surface PM2.5 using five fire emission inventories. We reproduce up to 25% of the weekly variability in total observed PM2.5 using STILT. Depending on year and emission inventory, our method attributes 7.0%-78% of the maximum observed PM2.5 enhancements in Delhi to fires. The large range in these attribution estimates points to the uncertainties in fire emission parameterizations, especially in regions where thick smoke may interfere with hotspots of fire radiative power. Although our model can generally reproduce the largest PM2.5 enhancements in Delhi air quality for 1-3 consecutive days each fire season, it fails to capture many smaller daily enhancements, which we attribute to the challenge of detecting small fires in the satellite retrieval. By quantifying the influence of upwind agricultural fire emissions on Delhi air pollution, our work underscores the potential health benefits of changes in farming practices to reduce fires.
From 2006 to 2010, deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996–2005) whereas agricultural production reached an all-time high. This ...study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001 to 2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared pasture areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006 to 2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10 to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels whereas deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that antideforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of direct leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso during the late 2000s, although indirect land-use changes and leakage to more distant regions are possible. This study provides evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers, provided that land is available and policies promote the efficient use of already-cleared lands (intensification) while restricting deforestation. It remains uncertain whether government- and industry-led policies can contain deforestation if future market conditions favor another boom in agricultural expansion.
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•We develop a framework to examine decision-making in response to weather variability.•We use the framework to examine how farmers respond to late monsoon onset in India.•Irrigation, assets, weather ...perceptions, and risk aversion influence decision-making.•All coping responses resulted in higher yields and/or profits.•The framework contributes to a process-based understanding of decision-making.
Weather variability poses numerous risks to agricultural communities, yet farmers may be able to reduce some of these risks by adapting their cropping practices to better suit changes in weather. However, not all farmers respond to weather variability in the same way. To better identify the causes and consequences of this heterogeneous decision-making, we develop a framework that identifies (1) which socio-economic and biophysical factors are associated with heterogeneous cropping decisions in response to weather variability and (2) which cropping strategies are the most adaptive, considering economic outcomes (e.g., yields and profits). This framework aims to understand how, why, and how effectively farmers adapt to current weather variability; these findings, in turn, may contribute to a more mechanistic and predictive understanding of individual-level adaptation to future climate variability and change. To illustrate this framework, we assessed how 779 farmers responded to delayed monsoon onset in fifteen villages in Gujarat, India during the 2011 growing season, when the monsoon onset was delayed by three weeks. We found that farmers adopted a variety of strategies to cope with delayed monsoon onset, including increasing irrigation use, switching to more drought-tolerant crops, and/or delaying sowing. We found that farmers’ access to and choice of strategies varied with their assets, irrigation access, perceptions of weather, and risk aversion. Richer farmers with more irrigation access used high levels of irrigation, and this strategy was associated with the highest yields in our survey sample. Poorer farmers with less secure access to irrigation were more likely to push back planting dates or switch crop type, and economic data suggest that these strategies were beneficial for those who did not have secure access to irrigation. Interestingly, after controlling for assets and irrigation access, we found that cognitive factors, such as beliefs that the monsoon onset date had changed over the last 20 years or risk aversion, were associated with increased adaptation. Our framework illustrates the importance of considering the complexity and heterogeneity of individual decision-making when conducting climate impact assessments or when developing policies to enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities to future climate variability and change.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Background: Forest, grassland peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual ...global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 pm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₂.₅) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration—response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM₂.₅ from LFS (contrasted with 0 ug/m³ from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between longterm PM₂.₅ exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM₂.₅ estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion.Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration—response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000-600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS.
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In September-October 2015, El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions set the stage for massive fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo), leading to persistently hazardous levels ...of smoke pollution across much of Equatorial Asia. Here we quantify the emission sources and health impacts of this haze episode and compare the sources and impacts to an event of similar magnitude occurring under similar meteorological conditions in September-October 2006. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we first calculate the influence of potential fire emissions across the domain on smoke concentrations in three receptor areas downwind-Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore-during the 2006 event. This step maps the sensitivity of each receptor to fire emissions in each grid cell upwind. We then combine these sensitivities with 2006 and 2015 fire emission inventories from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) to estimate the resulting population-weighted smoke exposure. This method, which assumes similar smoke transport pathways in 2006 and 2015, allows near real-time assessment of smoke pollution exposure, and therefore the consequent morbidity and premature mortality, due to severe haze. Our approach also provides rapid assessment of the relative contribution of fire emissions generated in a specific province to smoke-related health impacts in the receptor areas. We estimate that haze in 2015 resulted in 100 300 excess deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, more than double those of the 2006 event, with much of the increase due to fires in Indonesia's South Sumatra Province. The model framework we introduce in this study can rapidly identify those areas where land use management to reduce and/or avoid fires would yield the greatest benefit to human health, both nationally and regionally.
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