•An efficiency measure through reformulating the correlation, bias, ratio of variances components of NSE is presented.•The distinction between the population statistic and sampling properties was ...taken into the proposed criterion.•The proposed criterion is helpful for the design flow from hydrological frequency analysis.
Performance criteria are essential for hydrological model identification or its parameters estimation. The Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), which combines the three components of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of model errors (i.e. correlation, bias, ratio of variances or coefficients of variation) in a more balanced way, has been widely used for calibration and evaluation hydrological models in recent years. However, the KGE does not take a reference forecasts or simulation into account and still underestimates of variability of flow time series when optimizing its value for hydrological model. In this study, we propose another performance criterion as an efficiency measure through reformulating the previous three components of NSE. Moreover, the distribution function of the new criterion was also derived to analyze uncertainties of the new criterion, which is originated from the distinction between the theoretical or population statistic and its corresponding sampling properties. The proposed criterion was tested by calibrating the “abcd” and XAJ hourly hydrological models at monthly and hourly time scales data for two different case study basins. Evaluation of the results of the case study clearly demonstrates the overall better or comparable model performances from the proposed criterion. The analysis of the uncertainties of the new criterion based on its distribution probability function suggests a rational approach to distinguish between the probabilistic properties and behavior of the theoretical statistics and the rather different sampling properties of estimators of those statistics when computed from data.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
AbstractThe Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is now the most widely used criterion for measuring the goodness of fit between the hydrological model simulation and corresponding observation. Because ...there is substantial sampling uncertainty regarding hydrological simulation and observation, the NSE is a random variable. A probability density function (PDF) of NSE variable was derived based on the assumption of the simple linear regression model between the observation and simulation from the hydrological model. To avoid a subjective interpretation of the hydrological model performance, the confidence interval of the NSE variable was determined by its PDF. Because the difference in NSE variables (Φ) between two time periods or two hydrological models is often used for comparing their performances and can also be taken as a random variable, hypothesis testing should be implemented to determine whether the difference is adequate or whether the difference is a chance variation. Because the PDF of the difference can be derived based on the joint PDF of the every NSE random variables, a procedure of the hypothesis testing for the difference between two NSE variables is then proposed for comparing the performances between the hydrological models or between different time periods for a hydrological model. The proposed hypothesis testing has been applied in the abcd and dynamic water balance model (DWBM) hydrological models as case studies to illustrate the procedure of assessing the performances of a hydrological model and justifying its superiority to another model according to both the estimated NSE value and its confidence level due to the sampling uncertainty. Therefore, the proposed hypothesis testing can provide hydrological model end-users with rational model assessment.
•A nexus approach for describing the transformation of disturbance among systems is presented.•Parameters for quantifying the dynamic resilience process and that are independent of the disturbance ...are developed.•The dynamic resilience process for a regional water resource system is effectively predicted using the proposed model.
The increasing magnitude and frequency of undesirable events, driven by climate and anthropogenic changes, have given rise to various approaches for quantifying the resilience of regional water resource systems. However, the deficiencies of these approaches in describing linkages among subsystems and disturbance-dependent resilience have hindered the assessment and prediction of resilience in water resource management. The nexus approach enables the propagation of a disturbance to be simulated (a process called surrogate disturbance generation). An approach analogous to a unit hydrograph is developed, and resilience routing (strain flow routing), which is a novel framework and model of the dynamic resilience process, is proposed for the evaluation of a regional water resource system. The proposed framework and model are applied to the Jinghong regional water resource system. Taking a pollution event as a disturbance, the responses of the water supply, fishery and electricity subsystems are simulated to test the validity of the proposed methods. The linkages among subsystems are determined according to the sink-source dynamic using the nexus approach, and the levels of surrogate disturbance transformed from the disturbance event can be quantified by the processes of dynamic resilience evaluation. The shape of the dynamic resilience process is quantified by the parameters of unit resilience routing with disturbance independence and reflects the characteristics of the system responding to the disturbance. The proposed method helps to assess the adaptive capacity of a water system to alleviate and regulate disturbances. Furthermore, after the calibration and validation of the assumptions of linearity inherent in the method, it can also be used to predict the dynamic resilience processes of every subsystem in response to any disturbance event affecting a regional water resource system.
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•The score and its confidential level are the two intrinsic aspects of LME.•Comparison of two LMEs should be done through hypothesis testing.•Hypothesis testing requires the probability distribution ...function of the difference or the quotient of LMEs.
This discussion is reply to the comments made by Dr. Hyun Il Choi (in press) on the LME proposed by Liu, 2020 concerning the performance criterion for hydrological model. In this reply I answer the comments and I try to clarify that there are two aspects of the LME. I believe that Dr. HyunIl Choi had just understood one aspects of the LME in his comments, which had confused him. Actually, both the value of the estimated LME and its corresponding confidential level are important to understanding the merits of LME for assessing the performance of hydrological model.
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5.
State predictive information bottleneck
Journal of chemical physics online/The Journal of chemical physics/Journal of chemical physics,
04/2021
Journal Article
Perkembangan pendidikan Pesantren memerlukan evaluasi yang sistematis dan terukur dengan alat evaluasi yang sesuai untuk mencapai tujuan, terutama di Pesantren Terpadu Al Kahfi Bogor bagi kinerja ...Wali Asrama yang terkait dengan santri. Alat tersebut memerlukan pengembangan tertentu dengan mencari strateginya yang terbaik sesuai visi-misi Pesantren. Oleh karena itu, untuk menentukan strategi terbaik maka menggunakan penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan kasus dan analisis SWOT dan AHP untuk mengkajinya secara mendalam. Hasilnya menunjukkan strategi utama yang harus dikembangkan untuk membuat alat evaluasi yang dibutuhkan adalah dengan mengembangkan sumber daya manusia yang dimiliki melalui pendidikan kilat, pelatihan dan semisalnya untuk menghindari human error dan menciptakan SDM unggul, memperbaiki manajemen evaluasi yang ada, seperti menambah indikator dan model evaluasi lainnya dan mengembangkan alat evaluasi seperti membuat perangkat laporan dan evaluasi kuantitatif. Hal ini sesuai hasil AHP pengembangan SDM sebesar 0,355, manajemen evaluasi 0,333 dan alat evaluasi 0,312. Semunay tidak akan berhasil kecuali dengan melaksanakan tanggungjawab, pembentukan karakter dan disiplin. Faktornya strategi pengembangannya adalah keadaan SDM yang berkompeten dan berpengalaman, budaya melekat Pesantren, administrasi yang baik dan kegiatan belajar-mengajar kondusif.Kata Kunci: Alat Evaluasi, Kinerja, Wali Asrama, Pesantren
Tulisan ini mengkaji Sejarah Penuba sebagai Ibukota Onderafdeling Lingga tahun 1908-1939. Kajian menggunakan metode penelitian sejarah yang dalam pengumpulan data melalui studi kepustakaan. Dari ...penelitian diketahui Penuba yang awalnya sebuah kampung yang sepi tahun 1904 dijadikan pusat sementara Onderafdeling Lingga dan secara resmi jadi ibukota Onderafdeling Lingga mulai 19 Juli 1908. Perpindahan ibukota Onderafdeling Lingga yang semula di Tanjungbuton (Lingga) ke Penuba tidak terlepas kondisi daerah Lingga yang semakin sepi. Tahun 1900, pusat Kesultanan Riau Lingga pindah dari Daik Lingga ke Pulau Penyengat di Tanjungpinang. Usai ditunjuk jadi ibukota, pemerintah kolonial Belanda membangun banyak fasilitas di Penuba, seperti gedung perkantoran, rumah candu, perbaikan pelabuhan, rumah peristirahatan dan juga sekolah. Penduduk Penuba makin ramai dan jadi multi etnik, diantaranya Melayu, Bugis, Tionghoa, dan Orang Laut. Kejayaan Penuba tidak berlangsung lama. Ibukota Onderafdeling Lingga tahun 1939 dipindahkan dari Penuba ke Dabo Singkep. Alasan perpindahan adalah Dabo Singkep cocok jadi ibukota karena daerahnya makin maju karena adanya penambangan timah oleh Singkep Tin Exploitatie (SITEM). Bangunan perkantoran dan perumahan bisa dipakai tanpa dipungut biaya. Sementara, bangunan perkantoran di Penuba dinilai juga sudah banyak yang rusak dan daerahnya juga rawan penyakit malaria. Tidak ada dokter yang bertugas di Penuba.
Small-scale coastal fisheries contribute directly and indirectly to the food and nutrition security of marine-dependent households. Fishers can apportion part of their catch for household consumption ...or use the income earned to purchase staples and other desired foods. Fish are an important animal-source food rich in micronutrients essential for cognitive development of children and for adult health, and a valuable addition to rice-based diets. Furthermore, the engagement of women in fisheries value chains and increased control over income may facilitate decision-making which improves nutrition outcomes for women and their children. Despite these contributions, food insecurity remains prevalent in many low and middle income fish-producing countries. This paper reports findings from an exploration of the interplaying factors leading to food and nutrition insecurity in three marine-dependent coastal communities in eastern Indonesia, focusing on the consumption pathway, that is, the contribution of fish to the diets and nutrition of women and children. The research was undertaken as a mixed-methods case study. The study found that over 50% of mother-child pairs failed to meet the minimum recommended dietary diversity, and, while fish was the main animal-source food in diets, the introduction of fish to infant and young child diets was delayed due to fears of allergies and illnesses. Moreover, access to nutrient-dense foods was affected by variable and insufficient income from fisheries-based livelihoods, isolation from markets, and the broader food environment. Given the shift towards 'nutrition-sensitive interventions' to improve the livelihoods and well-being of fisher households, these results highlight the need for analysis of the intra-household sharing of fish within fisher households, culturally-appropriate strategies to improve the quality of family and especially complementary foods, and efforts to increase physical access to nutrient-dense foods.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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