Quantitative predictions are ubiquitous in ecology, yet there is limited discussion on the nature of prediction in this field. Herein I derive a general quantitative framework for analyzing and ...partitioning the sources of uncertainty that control predictability. The implications of this framework are assessed conceptually and linked to classic questions in ecology, such as the relative importance of endogenous (density-dependent) vs. exogenous factors, stability vs. drift, and the spatial scaling of processes. The framework is used to make a number of novel predictions and reframe approaches to experimental design, model selection, and hypothesis testing. Next, the quantitative application of the framework to partitioning uncertainties is illustrated using a short-term forecast of net ecosystem exchange. Finally, I advocate for a new comparative approach to studying predictability across different ecological systems and processes and lay out a number of hypotheses about what limits predictability and how these limits should scale in space and time.
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Most tree roots on Earth form a symbiosis with either ecto‐ or arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Nitrogen fertilization is hypothesized to favor arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species at the expense of ...ectomycorrhizal species due to differences in fungal nitrogen acquisition strategies, and this may alter soil carbon balance, as differences in forest mycorrhizal associations are linked to differences in soil carbon pools. Combining nitrogen deposition data with continental‐scale US forest data, we show that nitrogen pollution is spatially associated with a decline in ectomycorrhizal vs. arbuscular mycorrhizal trees. Furthermore, nitrogen deposition has contrasting effects on arbuscular vs. ectomycorrhizal demographic processes, favoring arbuscular mycorrhizal trees at the expense of ectomycorrhizal trees, and is spatially correlated with reduced soil carbon stocks. This implies future changes in nitrogen deposition may alter the capacity of forests to sequester carbon and offset climate change via interactions with the forest microbiome.
Responses of arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal trees to atmospheric nitrogen deposition.
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Mycorrhizal fungi are critical members of the plant microbiome, forming a symbiosis with the roots of most plants on Earth. Most plant species partner with either arbuscular or ectomycorrhizal fungi, ...and these symbioses are thought to represent plant adaptations to fast and slow soil nutrient cycling rates. This generates a second hypothesis, that arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal plant species traits complement and reinforce these fungal strategies, resulting in nutrient acquisitive vs. conservative plant trait profiles. Here we analyzed 17,764 species level trait observations from 2,940 woody plant species to show that mycorrhizal plants differ systematically in nitrogen and phosphorus economic traits. Differences were clearest in temperate latitudes, where ectomycorrhizal plant species are more nitrogen use- and phosphorus use-conservative than arbuscular mycorrhizal species. This difference is reflected in both aboveground and belowground plant traits and is robust to controlling for evolutionary history, nitrogen fixation ability, deciduousness, latitude, and species climate niche. Furthermore, mycorrhizal effects are large and frequently similar to or greater in magnitude than the influence of plant nitrogen fixation ability or deciduous vs. evergreen leaf habit. Ectomycorrhizal plants are also more nitrogen conservative than arbuscular plants in boreal and tropical ecosystems, although differences in phosphorus use are less apparent outside temperate latitudes. Our findings bolster current theories of ecosystems rooted in mycorrhizal ecology and support the hypothesis that plant mycorrhizal association is linked to the evolution of plant nutrient economic strategies.
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Nonstructural carbon in woody plants Dietze, Michael C; Sala, Anna; Carbone, Mariah S ...
Annual review of plant biology,
01/2014, Volume:
65
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Nonstructural carbon (NSC) provides the carbon and energy for plant growth and survival. In woody plants, fundamental questions about NSC remain unresolved: Is NSC storage an active or passive ...process? Do older NSC reserves remain accessible to the plant? How is NSC depletion related to mortality risk? Herein we review conceptual and mathematical models of NSC dynamics, recent observations and experiments at the organismal scale, and advances in plant physiology that have provided a better understanding of the dynamics of woody plant NSC. Plants preferentially use new carbon but can access decade-old carbon when the plant is stressed or physically damaged. In addition to serving as a carbon and energy source, NSC plays important roles in phloem transport, osmoregulation, and cold tolerance, but how plants regulate these competing roles and NSC depletion remains elusive. Moving forward requires greater synthesis of models and data and integration across scales from -omics to ecology.
Regional and global models of the terrestrial biosphere depend critically on models of photosynthesis when predicting impacts of global change. This paper focuses on identifying the primary data ...needs of these models, what scales drive uncertainty, and how to improve measurements. Overall, there is a need for an open, cross-discipline database on leaf-level photosynthesis in general, and response curves in particular. The parameters in photosynthetic models are not constant through time, space, or canopy position but there is a need for a better understanding of whether relationships with drivers, such as leaf nitrogen, are themselves scale dependent. Across time scales, as ecosystem models become more sophisticated in their representations of succession they needs to be able to approximate sunfleck responses to capture understory growth and survival. At both high and low latitudes, photosynthetic data are inadequate in general and there is a particular need to better understand thermal acclimation. Simple models of acclimation suggest that shifts in optimal temperature are important. However, there is little advantage to synoptic-scale responses and circadian rhythms may be more beneficial than acclimation over shorter timescales. At high latitudes, there is a need for a better understanding of low-temperature photosynthetic limits, while at low latitudes the need is for a better understanding of phosphorus limitations on photosynthesis. In terms of sampling, measuring multivariate photosynthetic response surfaces are potentially more efficient and more accurate than traditional univariate response curves. Finally, there is a need for greater community involvement in model validation and model-data synthesis.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
6.
Iterative near-term ecological forecasting Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
02/2018, Volume:
115, Issue:
7
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering ...these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfra-structure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.
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Substantial uncertainty surrounds how forest ecosystems will respond to the simultaneous impacts of multiple global change drivers. Long‐term forest dynamics are sensitive to changes in tree ...mortality rates; however, we lack an understanding of the relative importance of the factors that affect tree mortality across different spatial and temporal scales. We used the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis database to evaluate the drivers of tree mortality for eastern temperate forest at the individual‐level across spatial scales from tree to landscape to region. We investigated 13 covariates in four categories: climate, air pollutants, topography, and stand characteristics. Overall, we found that tree mortality was most sensitive to stand characteristics and air pollutants. Different functional groups also varied considerably in their sensitivity to environmental drivers. This research highlights the importance of considering the interactions among multiple global change agents in shaping forest ecosystems.
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8.
Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought Schlesinger, William H.; Dietze, Michael C.; Jackson, Robert B. ...
Global change biology,
July 2016, Volume:
22, Issue:
7
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2O and CH4) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on ...forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil. Extreme droughts often lead to more common and more intense forest fires, causing dramatic changes in the nutrient storage and loss from forest ecosystems. Changes in the future manifestation of drought will affect carbon uptake and storage in forests, leading to feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We must improve the recognition of drought in nature, our ability to manage our forests in the face of drought, and the parameterization of drought in earth system models for improved predictions of carbon uptake and storage in the world's forests.
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Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an ...important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real‐world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first‐generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter‐disciplinary communication.
In this review, we summarize in detail the development of vegetation demographics models as components of Earth System Models. We particularly highlight the ecological uncertainties around the strength of growth‐resource acquisition feedbacks that are common across model developments, and illustrate the myriad new opportunities for ecological‐scale data streams to inform and validate these new model structures.
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Summary
Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between ...TBMs, contributing uncertainty to projections of global carbon fluxes. Here we compared the representation of photosynthesis in seven TBMs by examining leaf and canopy level responses of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation (A) to key environmental variables: light, temperature, CO2 concentration, vapor pressure deficit and soil water content. We identified research areas where limited process knowledge prevents inclusion of physiological phenomena in current TBMs and research areas where data are urgently needed for model parameterization or evaluation. We provide a roadmap for new science needed to improve the representation of photosynthesis in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere and Earth system models.
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