In order to reduce carbon emissions and urban smog, the Chinese government has instituted a number of policies to promote the diffusion of new energy vehicles (NEVs), achieving remarkable results. ...This paper aims to quantify the effectiveness of various policies. After reviewing and quantifying the policies directly related to the sales and driving of NEVs in the past five years, we established a multivariate co-integration model and an error correction model to analyse the long- and short-term effects of these policies. The results demonstrate positive co-integration for the relationship between the NEV market share and the NEV purchase subsidy, tax exemption, the policy of restricting internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) purchase, and the abolishment of traffic restrictions for NEVs. China's unique policy of restricting ICEVs has in fact promoted NEV sales by adjusting the supply and demand to influence the consumers' choices. Finally, we found technology to still be a bottleneck factor in the NEV industry, and technological progress's effect on NEV diffusion is greater than the economic subsidy policy. Therefore, this study suggests that the funds being made available from the gradual reduction of the purchase subsidy should be transferred to research and development.
•China's recent incentive policies to promote the NEV industry have been effective.•China's unique restrictions on vehicle purchases have a significantly positive impact on NEV diffusion.•The impact of different method for vehicle purchasing restriction on NEV sales is different.•The resources gained from reducing subsidies should be used to encourage the R&D of technologies.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010–2039 but ...with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significantly, however, widely different URR-values were used due to poor understanding of the various Chinese coal classification schemes. To mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and an analysis of the historical evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is derived, which indicates that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other potential constraints, it can be concluded that peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction strategies.
•Review of Chinese coal geology and resources/reserves.•Presentation of the Chinese coal classification system.•Forecasting future Chinese coal production using Hubbert curves.•Critical comparison with other forecasts.•Discussions transportation, environmental impact, water consumption, etc.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
A growing number of major natural gas markets in the world have adopted the gas-on-gas competition, or are in the phase of transition to this price formation mechanism. In this situation, China has ...also started to reform the pricing mechanism by establishing gas trading centers in Shanghai and Chongqing, providing platforms for sellers and buyers to complete the competition-based transactions, marking a transition from oil index pricing to gas-on-gas competition pricing. In order to carry out research on China's gas market based on gas-on-gas competition trading mechanism, this paper builds a natural gas trading model based on cooperative game theory, discusses the key parameter in the models, taking into account of the representative issues of China's gas market in transformation. Also, this paper designs scenarios based on Jiangsu Province, a relatively well-established gas trading market in China, and explores the impact of each issue on the market by using the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis. This study concludes that establishing the gas-on-gas competition model corresponds to the current gas market development in China. In addition, the market participants need to optimize the contract modes of gas supply, reduce gas supply cost and improve the price affordability, in order to maximize the cooperation benefits in gas market, increase the trading volume, promotes the development and maturation of China's gas market.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
In order to achieve energy consumption targets, and subsequently reduce carbon emissions, China is working on energy strategies and policies aimed at actively increasing the consumption of natural ...gas—the lowest carbon energy of the fossil fuels, and to enhance the proportion of gas in total primary energy consumption. To do this, it is a necessary prerequisite that China must have access to adequate gas resources and production to meet demand. This paper shows that the availability of domestic gas resources are overestimated by China's authorities due to differences in classification and definitions of gas resources/reserves between China and those accepted internationally. Based on official gas resource figures, China's gas production remains low with respect to the projected demand, and will only be 164.6bcm in 2020, far lower than the 375bcm of forecast demand. The gap between gas production and demand will reach 210.4bcm by 2020. Existing plans for the importation of gas and the development of unconventional gas will not close this gap in the next 10 years, and this situation will therefore present a severe challenge to China's gas security, achievement of targets in improving energy consumption structure and reducing carbon emissions.
► We show that available gas resources are overestimated by China's authorities. ► We forecast China's future gas production under different resource scenarios. ► This paper shows that China's gas production will not meet the soaring demand. ► The gap between supply and demand will continue to increase rapidly in future. ► China's gas security will meet a severe challenge because of this increasing gap.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive ...energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×109MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×109MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development.
► We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. ► The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. ► Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Complexity modelling of economic efficiency and growth potential is increasingly essential for countries and provinces. Evaluating the monetary flows, kinetic energy (efficiency) and potential ...capacity (resilience) provides crucial information for economic development. In the paper, the authors analyze growth opportunities for the Chinese economy from a system science point of view, using the perspective of information entropy, based on the input-output tables. Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up, China has made remarkable progress in its economic development. In 2007, China's GDP was at its fastest pace in history at 14.2% growth. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy experienced a downward trend and China's economic development also settled on a medium-low level of development. The traditional perspective is to rank regional development only based on GDP growth, whereas here, the authors advocate another evaluation method based on efficiency and potential growth. Unbalanced regional economic development has become problematic and has become a barrier for sustainability of China's economy. The results of the research indicate firstly that China's regional development in 2007 and 2012 has been unequal between the provinces. Secondly, the authors found that Shandong province had significantly higher indicators for efficiency and potential growth than others in the same circumstances. Authors observe that provinces tend to carry out industrial policies and adjust the structure of industry on a local level. This analysis demonstrates that the spatial imbalance of efficiency and potential of economic development under the perspective of provincial-level regions. From the perspective of industry, it indicates that the supply chain is too short, mainly focusing on the mining and processing of resources and minerals in the original upstream industry chain, while the downstream is not fully utilized. These represent some unique insights yielded through this type of analysis that authors advocate applying more broadly.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
In this study, we use the term “energy expenditure” to calculate the direct and indirect energy costs invested in the extraction and conversion of net energy at the end of use in China. In this ...study, less energy expenditure is assumed to lead to more net energy to fulfill human psychological needs and to develop the economic system. However, in reality, energy expenditure is inevitable, and the question of what maximum energy expenditure is tolerable for economic growth remains. Therefore, we calculated the energy expenditure for China based on embodied energy theory and the IO table from 1987 to 2015 and then used a multivariate linear regression model to test the maximum tolerable level of energy expenditure in China. The results show that China’s economic system needs 3217 mtce net energy to ensure that the average annual GDP growth remains higher than 5% into the 2030s, which means that energy expenditure cannot be higher than 45.44% in 2030. According to the EROI forecast, EROI will drop to 1.52:1 in 2030, and the energy expenditure level will reach up to 64%. This figure is far above the maximum tolerable level of energy expenditure of 45.44%. If the level of energy expenditure exceeds this limit, the energy industry will hardly supply enough net energy to support economic development in 2030.
This paper reviews the historical development of both biogenic and non-biogenic petroleum formation. It also examines the recent claim that the so-called “abiotic” oil formation theory undermines the ...concept of “peak oil,” i.e. the notion that world oil production is destined to reach a maximum that will be followed by an irreversible decline. We show that peak oil is first and foremost a matter of production flows. Consequently, the mechanism of oil formation does not strongly affect depletion. We would need to revise the theory beyond peak oil only for the extreme — and unlikely — hypothesis of abiotic petroleum formation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China’s natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings ...indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China’s natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China’s energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China’s growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.
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BFBNIB, CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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