ABSTRACT
The impact of increasing vertebrate predator numbers on bird populations is widely debated among the general public, game managers and conservationists across Europe. However, there are few ...systematic reviews of whether predation limits the population sizes of European bird species. Views on the impacts of predation are particularly polarised in the UK, probably because the UK has a globally exceptional culture of intensive, high‐yield gamebird management where predator removal is the norm. In addition, most apex predators have been exterminated or much depleted in numbers, contributing to a widely held perception that the UK has high numbers of mesopredators. This has resulted in many high‐quality studies of mesopredator impacts over several decades. Here we present results from a systematic review of predator trends and abundance, and assess whether predation limits the population sizes of 90 bird species in the UK. Our results confirm that the generalist predators Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) and Crows (Corvus corone and C. cornix) occur at high densities in the UK compared with other European countries. In addition, some avian and mammalian predators have increased numerically in the UK during recent decades. Despite these high and increasing densities of predators, we found little evidence that predation limits populations of pigeons, woodpeckers and passerines, whereas evidence suggests that ground‐nesting seabirds, waders and gamebirds can be limited by predation. Using life‐history characteristics of prey species, we found that mainly long‐lived species with high adult survival and late onset of breeding were limited by predation. Single‐brooded species were also more likely to be limited by predation than multi‐brooded species. Predators that depredate prey species during all life stages (i.e. from nest to adult stages) limited prey numbers more than predators that depredated only specific life stages (e.g. solely during the nest phase). The Red Fox and non‐native mammals (e.g. the American Mink Neovison vison) were frequently identified as numerically limiting their prey species. Our review has identified predator–prey interactions that are particularly likely to result in population declines of prey species. In the short term, traditional predator‐management techniques (e.g. lethal control or fencing to reduce predation by a small number of predator species) could be used to protect these vulnerable species. However, as these techniques are costly and time‐consuming, we advocate that future research should identify land‐use practices and landscape configurations that would reduce predator numbers and predation rates.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
2.
Developing indicators for European birds Gregory, Richard D; van Strien, Arco; Vorisek, Petr ...
Philosophical transactions - Royal Society. Biological sciences,
02/2005, Volume:
360, Issue:
1454
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The global pledge to deliver 'a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010' is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, ...however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat.
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This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our ...diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities.
This is the ninth such annual horizon scan.
Twenty-four experts in conservation research and practice, ecology, economics, policy, and science communication identified 15 topics following a wide consultation. They followed a Delphi like process to score and identify the most important.
The issues highlighted span a wide range of fields and include thiamine deficiency in wild animals, the geographic expansion of chronic wasting disease, genetic control of invasive mammal populations and the effect of culturomics on conservation science, policy and action.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The ...pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control.
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A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010 Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; Côté, Isabelle M. ...
Trends in ecology & evolution,
2010, 2010-Jan, 2010-1-00, 20100101, Volume:
25, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, including academics and researchers, ...convened to identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the conservation of biological diversity. These include the impacts of and potential human responses to climate change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this process and collation annually.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential ...effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.
This is the eighth such annual horizon scan.
An international team with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy identified 15 issues, following widespread consultation and a Delphi-like scoring process to identify the most important.
The issues were wide ranging, and include sand extraction, blockchain technology, use of robotics to combat invasive species, and new developments in energy storage and fuel production.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Dengue: an escalating problem Gibbons, Robert V; Vaughn, David W
BMJ,
06/2002, Volume:
324, Issue:
7353
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Dengue haemorrhagic fever is distinguished from dengue by the presence of increased vascular permeability, not by the presence of haemorrhage.1 Patients with dengue may have severe haemorrhage ...without meeting WHO criteria for dengue haemorrhagic fever (see bmj.com).
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Background. Dengue virus infection causes a spectrum of clinical manifestations, usually classified according to the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines into dengue fever (DF) and dengue ...hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The ability of these guidelines to categorize severe dengue illness has recently been questioned. Methods. We evaluated dengue case definitions in a prospective study at a pediatric hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, during 1994–2005. One thousand thirteen children were enrolled within the first 3 days after onset of fever and observed with standardized data collection. Cases were classified on the basis of application of the strict WHO criteria. All dengue virus infections were laboratory confirmed. We retrospectively grouped patients on the basis of whether they received significant intervention based on fluid replacement and/or requirements for blood transfusion. Results. Eighty-five (58%) of 150 persons with DHF, 40 (15%) of 264 with DF, and 73 (12%) of 599 with other febrile illnesses (OFIs) received significant intervention. Sixty-eight percent of dengue cases requiring intervention met strict WHO criteria for DHF. In contrast, only 1% of OFI cases met WHO criteria for DHF. Plasma leakage and thrombocytopenia were the 2 components contributing to the specificity of the WHO case definition and identified dengue cases that required intervention. Hemorrhagic tendency did not reliably differentiate DF and DHF. In DF cases, thrombocytopenia and bleeding were associated with severity.
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Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a worsening global health problem. The plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) is currently considered to be the "gold standard" to characterize and quantify ...circulating levels of anti-DENV neutralizing antibody (NAb). Many variations of the PRNT are currently in use and neither the assay nor its performance conditions have been standardized or harmonized between laboratories. We used a well-characterized panel of acute and late convalescent follow-up sera samples from children experiencing primary and secondary DENV infections to evaluate the performance of the dengue PRNT under a variety of testing conditions. Investigators varied cell type, control virus passage, and the use of complement across multiple assay runs of the same sample panel. Our findings indicate wide variation in PRNT titer results in response to varied testing conditions.
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