Many countries have imposed a set of non-pharmaceutical health policy interventions in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of ...the interventions, drawing on evidence from the OECD countries. A special feature here is the mechanism that underlies the impact of the containment policies. To this end, a causal mediation analysis decomposing the total effect into a direct and an indirect effect is conducted. The key finding is a dual cause-effect channel. On the one hand, there is a direct effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions on the various health variables. Beyond this, a quantitatively dominant indirect impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions operating via voluntary changes in social distancing is shown.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This research explores the question of which exchange rate regime would bring about better output and price stability, given the initial conditions and the external shocks facing Argentina’s economy ...in 2001–2002. Our analytical model incorporates a transmission mechanism, the balance‐sheet effects, which formulates the possible interaction between foreign debt and exchange rate policy. We find that a floating exchange rate that depends on external finance outperforms dollarization, after supposing the amount of foreign debt payments is limited. As the relative performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements depends on the foreign debt payments, our empirical results imply that the restructuring of foreign debt should be an integral part of any negotiation concerning the postcrisis exchange rate regime. Our results also show that with the existence of foreign debt, the policy trade‐off implied by the Trilemma becomes much constrained.
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Failure to eradicate hematologic cancer stem cells (hCSCs) associated with resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as imatinib mesylate (IM) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients is a ...clinical challenge that highlights the need for discovering and developing therapeutic strategies that target and eliminate these hCSCs. Herein, we document the essential role of the interplay between histone deacetylases (HDACs), the polycomb group proteins, pluripotency transcription factors and the cell cycle machinery in the viability, oncogenicity and therapy evasion of IM-resistant CD34+/CD38- CML stem cells (CML-SCs). Using the proteotranscriptomic analyses of wild type (WT), CD34+/CD38+ and CD34+/CD38− K562 or KU812 cells, we showed that CD34+/CD38− SC-enriched cells expressed significantly higher levels of CD44, CD133, SOX2, Nanog, OCT4, and c-Myc mRNA and/or protein, compared to the WT or CD34+/CD38+ cells. This overexpression of stemness factors in the CD34+/CD38− cells positively correlates with enhanced expression of HDACs 1–6, cyclins D1/D3, CDK 2, 4 and 6, while inversely correlating with p18, p21 and p27. Enhanced co-expression of MDR1, survivin, and Bcl-2 proteins, supposedly involved in IM-resistance and CML-SC survival, was detected in both CD34+/CD38− and CD34+/CD38+ cells. Importantly, we demonstrate that in synergism with IM, SAHA reverses the tumor-promoting proteotranscriptomic profile noted above and elicits marked inhibition of the CML-SCs by up-regulating hsa-miR-196a expression. This hsa-miR-196a-mediated SC-limiting effect of SAHA is dose-dependent, low-dosed, cell cycle-modulating and accompanied by leukemic SC apoptosis. Interestingly, this anti-SC therapeutic activity of SAHA in vitro was reproduced in vivo using the NOD-SCID mice models.
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•hsa-miR-196a mediates inhibition of CML stem cells.•Potentiate the anticancer effect of Imatinib mesylate by suberanilohydroxamic acid.•Synergism with Imatinib mesylate and suberanilohydroxamic acid reverses the tumor-promoting proteotranscriptomic profile.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
In this paper we explore the cross-country variation in the output impact of the global financial crisis in 2008–9. We use the extensive dataset of Rose and Spiegel but control for the problems of ...model uncertainty and outliers by using a variety of Bayesian model averaging techniques. We find first that cross-country differences in crisis intensity can be explained by macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Second, ignoring model uncertainty can led to incorrect inferences. Third, international trade linkages do matter.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
This article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define bank crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin ...with the theoretical foundation of this new method. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
In this paper, we make the case that an argument for price-level targeting over inflation targeting need not to be based on some overly restrictive assumptions. We adopt a theoretical framework that ...deviates from the assumption of rational expectation, and that takes into account the cognitive limitations and a “trial and error” learning mechanism of the agents. The (im)perfect credibility of various monetary policies (e.g., a Taylor-type rule, strict domestic inflation targeting, strict consumer price index (CPI) inflation targeting, exchange rate peg, and domestic price-level and CPI-level targeting) may lead agents to react according to their expectation rules, and then create various degrees of booms and busts in output and inflation. Therefore, relaxing the rational expectation hypothesis has potential consequences for policy planning. We find that price-level targeting prevails over inflation targeting even under different expectation formation and even when the announced inflation target is not fully credible. The counterfactual analysis and sensitivity test confirm that CPI-level targeting is the most effective for improving social welfare and stability in an open economy. The business cycles induced by animal spirits are enhanced by strict inflation targeting.
This research examines whether an alternative exchange rate policy could have mitigated Germany’s recession from April 1930 to May 1932, when Heinrich Brüning was Reichskanzler of the Weimar ...Republic. Using an open-economy dynamic model as our analytical framework, we examine the arguments against adopting the devaluation policy. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a widely held belief—that floating the Reichsmark would have led to high inflation—is unwarranted. Despite Germany’s high foreign debt, floating the Reichsmark would have led to less of a decline in both real GDP and employment for the country during the Great Depression.
In this paper we provide a quantitative evaluation of foreign financial advising, taking China's currency reform proposals as an example. Between 1903 and 1929, three Western financial experts ...proposed a gold (-exchange) standard to China, which at that time was on a silver standard. Using counterfactual simulation, we find that: (1) a gold (-exchange) standard would not have brought price stability to China; (2) and it could have even worsened global deflation during the beginning years of the Great Depression.
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BFBNIB, INZLJ, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
We use counterfactual simulations based on an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to demonstrate why China was affected less than other major countries during the first two years ...of the Great Depression. We show that being on a silver standard insulated China from the adverse consequences of the Great Depression by saving the country both from a tightening of monetary conditions and from a detrimental internal deflation. Without the insulation of the silver standard, China might have suffered from a cumulative output loss of between 11% and 23%, and its inflation might have become deflation.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
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