This study analyzed data from 67.8 million persons in 195 countries between 1980 and 2015 using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods. The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease ...burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on this major issue.
Abstract Background The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. Objectives The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease ...incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. Methods CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Results In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75. Conclusions CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Summary Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in ...obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4–29·3) to 36·9% (36·3–37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3–30·2) to 38·0% (37·5–38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9–24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7–23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7–8·6) to 12·9% (12·3–13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1–8·8) to 13·4% (13·0–13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET/computed tomography (CT) has been increasingly used in bone and soft tissue sarcomas and provides advantages in the initial tumor staging, tumor grading, therapy ...assessment, and recurrence detection. FDG-PET/CT metabolic parameters are reliable predictors of survival in sarcomas and could be implemented in risk stratification models along with other prognostic factors in these patients.
IMPORTANCE: Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care ...planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. OBJECTIVE: To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. EXPOSURES: Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. RESULTS: The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 95% uncertainty interval UI, 3.25-3.92 million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 95% UI, 2.43-2.68 million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 95% UI, 1.53-3.44 million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (−29.1% 95% UI, −32.4% to −25.8%); spinal cord injury prevalence (−38.5% 95% UI, −43.1% to −34.0%); meningitis prevalence (−44.8% 95% UI, −47.3% to −42.3%), deaths (−64.4% 95% UI, −67.7% to −50.3%), and DALYs (−66.9% 95% UI, −70.1% to −55.9%); and encephalitis DALYs (−25.8% 95% UI, −30.7% to −5.8%). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.
IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to ...2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval UI, 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% 95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%; absolute value, 161 000 deaths 95% UI, 107 000-182 000); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 95% UI, 55 400-84 100) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 95% UI, 18 200-24 800). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (−0.2% 95% UI, −0.8% to 0.2%). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths 95% UI, 24 900-39 700 and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths 95% UI, 2810-4210). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
Background and Objectives To evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its individual components in a representative sample of diabetic and ...nondiabetic Iranians. Moreover, we aimed to define the most hazardous MetS components. Methods Two cohorts consisting of 1737 nondiabetic and 2385 diabetic participants were followed for the first CHD event during 8.5 years (until December 2013). Results MetS is defined as having 3 individual components associated with increased risk of CHD (hazard ratio HR for MetS: in the unadjusted were 2.85 2.27–3.57 and in the fully adjusted model 1.80 1.42–2.28). MetS was associated with lower hazard of CHD in subjects older than 65 (HR: 1.50 vs. 3.47; P for interaction < .05) and in men (HR: 1.68 vs. 4.87; P for interaction < .05). Presence of 4 of 5 individual MetS components increased the risk of CHD associated with MetS as a constellation. The value of MetS is augmented in the presence of low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HR: 5.74 2.52–13.08) versus its absence (HR 1.91 1.33–2.75), high triglycerides (HR: 3.39 1.38–8.34 vs. 1.99 1.40–2.82 in its absence) and elevated blood pressure (HR: 2.61 1.43–4.76 vs. 1.80 1.26–2.58 in its absence). Conclusions We address the value of MetS components in the prediction of CHD and in the absence of traditional risk factors. This study provides evidence for the synergistic effect of MetS components on the incidence of CHD.
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18.
The Global Burden of Cancer 2013 Fitzmaurice, Christina; Dicker, Daniel; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar ...
JAMA oncology,
07/2015, Volume:
1, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies.
To estimate ...mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013.
The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.
In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries.
Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.
The burden of fatal police violence is an urgent public health crisis in the USA. Mounting evidence shows that deaths at the hands of the police disproportionately impact people of certain races and ...ethnicities, pointing to systemic racism in policing. Recent high-profile killings by police in the USA have prompted calls for more extensive and public data reporting on police violence. This study examines the presence and extent of under-reporting of police violence in US Government-run vital registration data, offers a method for correcting under-reporting in these datasets, and presents revised estimates of deaths due to police violence in the USA.
We compared data from the USA National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to three non-governmental, open-source databases on police violence: Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and The Counted. We extracted and standardised the age, sex, US state of death registration, year of death, and race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic of other races, and Hispanic of any race) of each decedent for all data sources and used a network meta-regression to quantify the rate of under-reporting within the NVSS. Using these rates to inform correction factors, we provide adjusted estimates of deaths due to police violence for all states, ages, sexes, and racial and ethnic groups from 1980 to 2019 across the USA.
Across all races and states in the USA, we estimate 30 800 deaths (95% uncertainty interval UI 30 300–31 300) from police violence between 1980 and 2018; this represents 17 100 more deaths (16 600–17 600) than reported by the NVSS. Over this time period, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was highest in non-Hispanic Black people (0·69 95% UI 0·67–0·71 per 100 000), followed by Hispanic people of any race (0·35 0·34–0·36), non-Hispanic White people (0·20 0·19–0·20), and non-Hispanic people of other races (0·15 0·14– 0·16). This variation is further affected by the decedent's sex and shows large discrepancies between states. Between 1980 and 2018, the NVSS did not report 55·5% (54·8–56·2) of all deaths attributable to police violence. When aggregating all races, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was 0·25 (0·24–0·26) per 100 000 in the 1980s and 0·34 (0·34–0·35) per 100 000 in the 2010s, an increase of 38·4% (32·4–45·1) over the period of study.
We found that more than half of all deaths due to police violence that we estimated in the USA from 1980 to 2018 were unreported in the NVSS. Compounding this, we found substantial differences in the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence over time and by racial and ethnic groups within the USA. Proven public health intervention strategies are needed to address these systematic biases. State-level estimates allow for appropriate targeting of these strategies to address police violence and improve its reporting.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Background/Aims. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. This study aims to determine the microbial agents of SBP ...and the pattern of antibiotic resistance, in a large number of ascitic samples. Methodology. In a cross-sectional, single center, hospital based study, 1981 consecutive ascitic fluid samples were recruited from 2005 to 2011. Samples were dichotomized into three-year periods, in order to assess the trend of resistance to the first-line empirical antibiotics. Results. SBP was found in 482 (24.33%) of samples, of which 314 (65.15%) were culture positive. The most prevalent isolated pathogen was E. coli (33.8%), followed by staphylococcus aureus (8.9%) and Enterococcus (8.6%). No significant changes in the proportion of gram-negative/gram-positive infections occurred during this period. A percentage of resistant strains to cefotaxime (62.5%, 85.7%), ceftazidim (73%, 82.1%), ciprofloxacin (30, 59.8%), ofloxacin (36.8%, 50%), and oxacilin (35%, 51.6%) were significantly increased. E. coli was most sensitive to imipenem, piperacillin-tazobactam, amikacin, ceftizoxime, and gentamicin. Conclusions. The microbial aetiology of SBP remains relatively constant. However, the resistance rate especially to the first-line recommended antibiotics was significantly increased. This pattern must be watched closely and taken into account in empirical antibiotic treatment.
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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