Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and ...increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake‐specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake‐specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid‐century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
The traditional view of the planktonic food web describes consumption of inorganic nutrients by photoautotrophic phytoplankton, which in turn supports zooplankton and ultimately higher trophic ...levels. Pathways centred on bacteria provide mechanisms for nutrient recycling. This structure lies at the foundation of most models used to explore biogeochemical cycling, functioning of the biological pump, and the impact of climate change on these processes. We suggest an alternative new paradigm, which sees the bulk of the base of this food web supported by protist plankton communities that are mixotrophic - combining phototrophy and phagotrophy within a single cell. The photoautotrophic eukaryotic plankton and their heterotrophic microzooplankton grazers dominate only during the developmental phases of ecosystems (e.g. spring bloom in temperate systems). With their flexible nutrition, mixotrophic protists dominate in more-mature systems (e.g. temperate summer, established eutrophic systems and oligotrophic systems); the more-stable water columns suggested under climate change may also be expected to favour these mixotrophs. We explore how such a predominantly mixotrophic structure affects microbial trophic dynamics and the biological pump. The mixotroph-dominated structure differs fundamentally in its flow of energy and nutrients, with a shortened and potentially more efficient chain from nutrient regeneration to primary production. Furthermore, mixotrophy enables a direct conduit for the support of primary production from bacterial production. We show how the exclusion of an explicit mixotrophic component in studies of the pelagic microbial communities leads to a failure to capture the true dynamics of the carbon flow. In order to prevent a misinterpretation of the full implications of climate change upon biogeochemical cycling and the functioning of the biological pump, we recommend inclusion of multi-nutrient mixotroph models within ecosystem studies.
HEALPix--the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization--is a versatile structure for the pixelization of data on the sphere. An associated library of computational algorithms and visualization ...software supports fast scientific applications executable directly on discretized spherical maps generated from very large volumes of astronomical data. Originally developed to address the data processing and analysis needs of the present generation of cosmic microwave background experiments (e.g., BOOMERANG, WMAP), HEALPix can be expanded to meet many of the profound challenges that will arise in confrontation with the observational output of future missions and experiments, including, e.g., Planck, Herschel, SAFIR, and the Beyond Einstein inflation probe. In this paper we consider the requirements and implementation constraints on a framework that simultaneously enables an efficient discretization with associated hierarchical indexation and fast analysis/synthesis of functions defined on the sphere. We demonstrate how these are explicitly satisfied by HEALPix.
The rapid growth of data in water resources has created new opportunities to accelerate knowledge discovery with the use of advanced deep learning tools. Hybrid models that integrate theory with ...state‐of‐the art empirical techniques have the potential to improve predictions while remaining true to physical laws. This paper evaluates the Process‐Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) hybrid modeling framework with a use‐case of predicting depth‐specific lake water temperatures. The PGDL model has three primary components: a deep learning model with temporal awareness (long short‐term memory recurrence), theory‐based feedback (model penalties for violating conversation of energy), and model pretraining to initialize the network with synthetic data (water temperature predictions from a process‐based model). In situ water temperatures were used to train the PGDL model, a deep learning (DL) model, and a process‐based (PB) model. Model performance was evaluated in various conditions, including when training data were sparse and when predictions were made outside of the range in the training data set. The PGDL model performance (as measured by root‐mean‐square error (RMSE)) was superior to DL and PB for two detailed study lakes, but only when pretraining data included greater variability than the training period. The PGDL model also performed well when extended to 68 lakes, with a median RMSE of 1.65 °C during the test period (DL: 1.78 °C, PB: 2.03 °C; in a small number of lakes PB or DL models were more accurate). This case‐study demonstrates that integrating scientific knowledge into deep learning tools shows promise for improving predictions of many important environmental variables.
Key Points
Process‐Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) models integrate advanced empirical techniques with process knowledge
We used PGDL to accurately predict lake water temperatures for various conditions
PGDL performance improved significantly when pretraining data included diverse conditions generated by an existing process‐based model
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Investigations of the origin and evolution of the Milky Way disc have long relied on chemical and kinematic identifications of its components to reconstruct our Galactic past. Difficulties ...in determining precise stellar ages have restricted most studies to small samples, normally confined to the solar neighbourhood. Here, we break this impasse with the help of asteroseismic inference and perform a chronology of the evolution of the disc throughout the age of the Galaxy. We chemically dissect the Milky Way disc population using a sample of red giant stars spanning out to 2 kpc in the solar annulus observed by the Kepler satellite, with the added dimension of asteroseismic ages. Our results reveal a clear difference in age between the low- and high-α populations, which also show distinct velocity dispersions in the V and W components. We find no tight correlation between age and metallicity nor α/Fe for the high-α disc stars. Our results indicate that this component formed over a period of more than 2 Gyr with a wide range of M/H and α/Fe independent of time. Our findings show that the kinematic properties of young α-rich stars are consistent with the rest of the high-α population and different from the low-α stars of similar age, rendering support to their origin being old stars that went through a mass transfer or stellar merger event, making them appear younger, instead of migration of truly young stars formed close to the Galactic bar.
Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation ...and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896-1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981-2010). Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We report the first measurement of coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS) on argon using a liquid argon detector at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Spallation Neutron Source. Two ...independent analyses prefer CEvNS over the background-only null hypothesis with greater than 3σ significance. The measured cross section, averaged over the incident neutrino flux, is (2.2±0.7)×10^{-39} cm^{2}-consistent with the standard model prediction. The neutron-number dependence of this result, together with that from our previous measurement on CsI, confirms the existence of the CEvNS process and provides improved constraints on nonstandard neutrino interactions.
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CMK, CTK, FMFMET, IJS, NUK, PNG, UL, UM
Sample preparation for high-throughput sequencing (HTS) includes treatment with various laboratory components, potentially carrying viral nucleic acids, the extent of which has not been thoroughly ...investigated. Our aim was to systematically examine a diverse repertoire of laboratory components used to prepare samples for HTS in order to identify contaminating viral sequences.
A total of 322 samples of mainly human origin were analysed using eight protocols, applying a wide variety of laboratory components. Several samples (60% of human specimens) were processed using different protocols. In total, 712 sequencing libraries were investigated for viral sequence contamination.
Among sequences showing similarity to viruses, 493 were significantly associated with the use of laboratory components. Each of these viral sequences had sporadic appearance, only being identified in a subset of the samples treated with the linked laboratory component, and some were not identified in the non-template control samples. Remarkably, more than 65% of all viral sequences identified were within viral clusters linked to the use of laboratory components.
We show that high prevalence of contaminating viral sequences can be expected in HTS-based virome data and provide an extensive list of novel contaminating viral sequences that can be used for evaluation of viral findings in future virome and metagenome studies. Moreover, we show that detection can be problematic due to stochastic appearance and limited non-template controls. Although the exact origin of these viral sequences requires further research, our results support laboratory-component-linked viral sequence contamination of both biological and synthetic origin.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
BACKGROUND The global obesity epidemic has paralleled a decrease in semen quality. Yet, the association between obesity and sperm parameters remains controversial. The purpose of this report was to ...update the evidence on the association between BMI and sperm count through a systematic review with meta-analysis. METHODS A systematic review of available literature (with no language restriction) was performed to investigate the impact of BMI on sperm count. Relevant studies published until June 2012 were identified from a Pubmed and EMBASE search. We also included unpublished data (n = 717 men) obtained from the Infertility Center of Bondy, France. Abstracts of relevant articles were examined and studies that could be included in this review were retrieved. Authors of relevant studies for the meta-analysis were contacted by email and asked to provide standardized data. RESULTS A total of 21 studies were included in the meta-analysis, resulting in a sample of 13 077 men from the general population and attending fertility clinics. Data were stratified according to the total sperm count as normozoospermia, oligozoospermia and azoospermia. Standardized weighted mean differences in sperm concentration did not differ significantly across BMI categories. There was a J-shaped relationship between BMI categories and risk of oligozoospermia or azoospermia. Compared with men of normal weight, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for oligozoospermia or azoospermia was 1.15 (0.93-1.43) for underweight, 1.11 (1.01-1.21) for overweight, 1.28 (1.06-1.55) for obese and 2.04 (1.59-2.62) for morbidly obese men. CONCLUSIONS Overweight and obesity were associated with an increased prevalence of azoospermia or oligozoospermia. The main limitation of this report is that studied populations varied, with men recruited from both the general population and infertile couples. Whether weight normalization could improve sperm parameters should be evaluated further.
Measurements of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2*) radical concentrations were made at the Pasadena ground site during the CalNex‐LA 2010 campaign using the laser‐induced fluorescence‐fluorescence ...assay by gas expansion technique. The measured concentrations of OH and HO2* exhibited a distinct weekend effect, with higher radical concentrations observed on the weekends corresponding to lower levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The radical measurements were compared to results from a zero‐dimensional model using the Regional Atmospheric Chemical Mechanism‐2 constrained by NOx and other measured trace gases. The chemical model overpredicted measured OH concentrations during the weekends by a factor of approximately 1.4 ± 0.3 (1σ), but the agreement was better during the weekdays (ratio of 1.0 ± 0.2). Model predicted HO2* concentrations underpredicted by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 on the weekends, while measured weekday concentrations were underpredicted by a factor of 3.0 ± 0.5. However, increasing the modeled OH reactivity to match the measured total OH reactivity improved the overall agreement for both OH and HO2* on all days. A radical budget analysis suggests that photolysis of carbonyls and formaldehyde together accounted for approximately 40% of radical initiation with photolysis of nitrous acid accounting for 30% at the measurement height and ozone photolysis contributing less than 20%. An analysis of the ozone production sensitivity reveals that during the week, ozone production was limited by volatile organic compounds throughout the day during the campaign but NOx limited during the afternoon on the weekends.
Key Points
Measurements of OH and HO2 during CalNex‐LA displayed a weekend effect
Modeled OH and HO2 agreed with measurements after accounting for missing OH reactivity
Ozone production was VOC limited on the weekdays but NOx limited on the weekends
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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