The Age of Em Hanson, Robin
2016, 2016-05-19, 2016-05-13
eBook
Robots may one day rule the world, but what is a robot-ruled Earth like? Many think that the first truly smart robots will be brain emulations or "ems." Robin Hanson draws on decades of expertise in ...economics, physics, and computer science to paint a detailed picture of this next great era in human (and machine) evolution - the age of em.
The etiology of severe hemolytic anemia in most patients with recessive hereditary spherocytosis (rHS) and the related disorder hereditary pyropoikilocytosis (HPP) is unknown. Whole exome sequencing ...of DNA from probands of 24 rHS or HPP kindreds identified numerous mutations in erythrocyte membrane α-spectrin (SPTA1). Twenty-eight mutations were novel, with null alleles frequently found in trans to missense mutations. No mutations were identified in a third of SPTA1 alleles (17/48). Whole genome sequencing revealed linkage disequilibrium between the common rHS-linked α-spectrinBug Hill polymorphism and a rare intron 30 variant in all 17 mutation-negative alleles. In vitro minigene studies and in vivo splicing analyses revealed the intron 30 variant changes a weak alternate branch point (BP) to a strong BP. This change leads to increased utilization of an alternate 3' splice acceptor site, perturbing normal α-spectrin mRNA splicing and creating an elongated mRNA transcript. In vivo mRNA stability studies revealed the newly created termination codon in the elongated transcript activates nonsense mediated decay leading to spectrin deficiency. These results demonstrate a unique mechanism of human genetic disease contributes to the etiology of a third of cases of rHS, facilitating diagnosis and treatment of severe anemia, and identifying a new target for therapeutic manipulation.
The use of forensic dye analysis in the field of cultural heritage is introduced, and a case study is presented determining the dating of a potentially important textile fragment from the Cleveland ...Museum of Art. The fragment, attributed on stylistic grounds to the 15th century, is purportedly the oldest surviving example of a Persian knotted-pile silk carpet. Raman spectroscopy combined with liquid chromatography – mass spectrometry determined the dyes used in the fragment include Metanil yellow, Congo red, and indigo, possibly in its synthetic form. Based on the dates of introduction for these dyes (1879, 1884, and 1897, respectively) and the first appearance of the textile fragment in 1928, the object is shown to be almost certainly a late 19th or early 20th century creation. Furthermore, impurities found in the red dye are suggested as potential markers of a pre-1970s synthetic route for manufacturing Congo red or possibly degraded Congo red due to environmental pollutants.
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Yes, disputes that appear to be about means may actually be about ends, economists and other experts may greatly overestimate how often there exist policy changes that could benefit most everyone, ...and contrary to appearances current info institutions may now acquire and share pretty much all useful info. This article, however, will focus on the opposite possibility: that large policy gains may be possible from better info institutions. Adapted from the source document.
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In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these features, ...eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more than individuals. Regarding a bet on one event given another event, only logarithmic versions preserve the probability of the given event. Logarithmic versions also preserve the conditional probabilities of other events, and so preserve conditional independence relations. Given logarithmic rules that elicit relative probabilities of base event pairs, it costs no more to elicit estimates on all combinations of these base events.
Addressing the materials feeding principle of kitting, commonly applied in the materials supply to mass-customised assembly, the current paper has the purpose of exploring how the man-hour efficiency ...of kit preparation is affected by the design and the context of the kit preparation. The study presented in the paper is based on a comprehensive methodology, comprising several steps and considering a large set of qualitative as well as quantitative data from 15 case studies. It also utilises the expertise of practitioners from the industry. The paper provides a valuable addition to the existing literature where empirical evidence is scarce. From a practical perspective, it offers support to the design of man-hour efficient kit preparation systems. The findings show that the design and the context of the kit preparation system can have a decisive, yet complex, impact on the man-hour efficiency and, thereby, on an assessment of the applicability of kitting. The paper identifies several important aspects of both design and context and indicates how these aspects are linked to the man-hour efficiency of kit preparation.
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Wages and employment predict automation in 832 U.S. jobs, 1999 to 2019, but add little to top 25 O*NET job features, whose best predictive model did not change over this period. Automation changes ...predict changes in neither wages nor employment.
•25 simple job features explain over half the variance in which jobs are how automated.•The strongest job automation predictor is: Pace Determined By Speed Of Equipment.•Which job features predict job automation how did not change from 1999 to 2019.•Jobs that get more automated do not on average change in pay or employment.•Labor markets change more often due to changes in demand, relative to supply.
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In July 2003, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was described as terrorism futures, and immediately cancelled. While PAM was not in fact designed to be terrorism futures, I here consider five design ...issues with implementing and using real terrorism futures: combinatorics, manipulation, moral hazard, hiding prices, and decision selection bias. As neither these nor other problems seem insurmountable, terrorism futures appears to be a technically realistic possibility.
With new market developments and e-commerce, there is an increased use of and interest in automation for order picking. This paper presents a systematic review and content analysis of the literature. ...It has the purpose of understanding the relevant performance aspects for automated, or partly automated, OPSs and identifying the studied links between design and performance, i.e. identifying which combinations of design aspects and performance aspects have been studied in previous research. For this purpose, 74 papers were selected and reviewed. From the review, it is clear that there has been an increased number of papers dealing with the performance of automated, or partly automated, OPSs in recent years. Moreover, there are differences between the different OPS types, but, overall, the performance categories of throughput, lead time, and operational efficiency have received the most attention in the literature. The paper identifies links between design and performance that have been studied, as well as links that appear to be under-researched. For academics, this paper synthesises the current knowledge on the performance of automation in OPSs and identifies opportunities for future research. For practitioners, the paper provides knowledge that can support the decision-making process of automation in OPSs.
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