Global simulations of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosols are performed for the present day and 2050 using the chemical transport model GEOS‐Chem. Changes in climate and emissions projected by ...the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together, with the primary focus of the work on future inorganic aerosol levels over the United States. Climate change alone is predicted to lead to decreases in levels of sulfate and ammonium in the southeast U.S. but increases in the Midwest and northeast U.S. Nitrate concentrations are projected to decrease across the U.S. as a result of climate change alone. In the U.S., climate change alone can cause changes in annually averaged sulfate‐nitrate‐ammonium of up to 0.61 μg/m3, with seasonal changes often being much larger in magnitude. When changes in anthropogenic emissions are considered (with or without changes in climate), domestic sulfate concentrations are projected to decrease because of sulfur dioxide emission reductions, and nitrate concentrations are predicted to generally increase because of higher ammonia emissions combined with decreases in sulfate despite reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides. The ammonium burden is projected to increase from 0.24 to 0.36 Tg, and the sulfate burden to increase from 0.28 to 0.40 Tg S as a result of globally higher ammonia and sulfate emissions in the future. The global nitrate burden is predicted to remain essentially constant at 0.35 Tg, with changes in both emissions and climate as a result of the competing effects of higher precursor emissions and increased temperature.
We use the adjoint of a global 3‐D chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem) to optimize ammonia (NH3) emissions in the U.S., European Union, and China by inversion of 2005–2008 network data for NH4+ wet ...deposition fluxes. Optimized emissions are derived on a 2° × 2.5° grid for individual months and years. Error characterization in the optimization includes model errors in precipitation. Annual optimized emissions are 2.8 Tg NH3−N a−1 for the contiguous U.S., 3.1 Tg NH3−N a−1 for the European Union, and 8.4 Tg NH3−N a−1 for China. Comparisons to previous inventories for the U.S. and European Union show consistency (∼±15%) in annual totals but some large spatial and seasonal differences. We develop a new global bottom‐up inventory of NH3 emissions (Magnitude And Seasonality of Agricultural Emissions model for NH3 (MASAGE_NH3)) to interpret the results of the adjoint optimization. MASAGE_NH3 provides information on the magnitude and seasonality of NH3 emissions from individual crop and livestock sources on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid. We find that U.S. emissions peak in the spring in the Midwest due to corn fertilization and in the summer elsewhere due to manure. The seasonality of European emissions is more homogeneous with a well‐defined maximum in spring associated with manure and mineral fertilizer application. There is some evidence for the effect of European regulations of NH3 emissions, notably a large fall decrease in northern Europe. Emissions in China peak in summer because of the summertime application of fertilizer for double cropping.
Key Points
Adjoint‐based inversion of ammonium wet deposition in the U.S., Europe, and ChinaMuch larger spatial and temporal variability of U.S. emission than in the a prioriNew model of NH3 emissions reproduces the patterns of the optimized emissions
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Tropical tropospheric ozone affects Earth's radiative forcing and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Considerable work has been devoted to the study of the processes controlling its budget. ...Yet, large discrepancies between simulated and observed tropical tropospheric ozone remain. Here, we characterize some of the mechanisms by which the photochemistry of isoprene impacts the budget of tropical ozone. At the regional scale, we use forward sensitivity simulation to explore the sensitivity to the representation of isoprene nitrates. We find that isoprene nitrates can account for up to 70% of the local NOx = NO+NO2 sink. The resulting modulation of ozone can be well characterized by their net modulation of NOx. We use adjoint sensitivity simulations to demonstrate that the oxidation of isoprene can affect ozone outside of continental regions through the transport of NOx over near-shore regions (e.g., South Atlantic) and the oxidation of isoprene outside of the boundary layer far from its emissions regions. The latter mechanism is promoted by the simulated low boundary-layer oxidative conditions. In our simulation, ~20% of the isoprene is oxidized above the boundary layer in the tropics. Changes in the interplay between regional and global effect are discussed in light of the forecasted increase in anthropogenic emissions in tropical regions.
Rapid Asian industrialization has led to increased downwind atmospheric nitrogen deposition threatening the marine environment. We present an analysis of the sources and processes controlling ...atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry model and its adjoint model at 1/2 degree 2/3 degree horizontal resolution over East Asia and its adjacent oceans. We focus our analyses on the marginal seas: the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Asian nitrogen emissions in the model are 28.6 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 15.7 Tg N a-1 as NOx. China has the largest sources with 12.8 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 7.9 Tg N a-1 as NOx; the high-NH3 emissions reflect its intensive agricultural activities. We find Asian NH3 emissions are a factor of 3 higher in summer than winter. The model simulation for 2008-2010 is evaluated with NH3 and NO2 column observations from satellite instruments, and wet deposition flux measurements from surface monitoring sites. Simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific ranges 0.8-20 kg N ha-1 a-1, decreasing rapidly downwind of the Asian continent. Deposition fluxes average 11.9 kg N ha-1 a-1 (5.0 as reduced nitrogen NHx and 6.9 as oxidized nitrogen NOy) to the Yellow Sea, and 5.6 kg N ha-1 a-1 (2.5 as NHx and 3.1 as NOy) to the South China Sea. Nitrogen sources over the ocean (ship NOx and oceanic NH3) have little contribution to deposition over the Yellow Sea, about 7 % over the South China Sea, and become important (greater than 30 %) further downwind. We find that the seasonality of nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific is determined by variations in meteorology largely controlled by the East Asian monsoon and in nitrogen emissions. The model adjoint further estimates that nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea originates from sources over China (92 % contribution) and the Korean peninsula (7 %), and by sectors from fertilizer use (24 %), power plants (22 %), and transportation (18 %). Deposition to the South China Sea shows source contribution from mainland China (66 %), Taiwan (20 %), and the rest (14 %) from the southeast Asian countries and oceanic NH3 emissions. The adjoint analyses also indicate that reducing Asian NH3 emissions would increase NOy dry deposition to the Yellow Sea (28 % offset annually), limiting the effectiveness of NH3 emission controls on reducing nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea.
Quantifying the dependence of ozone direct radiative forcing (DRF) on the mixture and spatial distribution of precursor emissions is a key step towards understanding the impact of air quality ...standards on climate. We use here a combination of satellite observations of ozone and its radiative effect in conjunction with an adjoint chemical transport model to determine the ozone DRF due to global, anthropogenic NOx, CO, and non‐methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) emissions regionally at 2° × 2.5° regions resolution. We show that 8% of the ozone DRF from the sum of all these emissions can be attributed to 15 regions, which are predominantly located in China and the United States (US). To achieve an equivalent reduction in ozone DRF, necessary emission reductions for each precursor vary intra‐continentally by a factor of 3–10 and globally by over an order of magnitude. The contribution of NOx emissions to ozone DRF relative to CO and NMHC emissions within individual regions varies globally by nearly a factor of two.
Key Points
Attribution of ozone radiative forcing to high resolution emissions
8% of the ozone DRF from global emissions can be attributed to 15 regions
Emission reductions vary intra‐continentally by 3‐7 and globally by over 10
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
The remote and high elevation regions of central Asia are influenced by black carbon (BC) emissions from a variety of locations. BC deposition contributes to melting of glaciers and questions exist, ...of both scientific and policy interest, as to the origin of the BC reaching the glaciers. We use the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model to identify the location from which BC arriving at a variety of locations in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau originates. We then calculate its direct and snow-albedo radiative forcing. We analyze the seasonal variation in the origin of BC using an adjoint sensitivity analysis, which provides a detailed map of the location of emissions that directly contribute to black carbon concentrations at receptor locations. We find that emissions from northern India and central China contribute the majority of BC to the Himalayas, although the precise location varies with season. The Tibetan Plateau receives most BC from western and central China, as well as from India, Nepal, the Middle East, Pakistan and other countries. The magnitude of contribution from each region varies with season and receptor location. We find that sources as varied as African biomass burning and Middle Eastern fossil fuel combustion can significantly contribute to the BC reaching the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. We compute radiative forcing in the snow-covered regions and find the forcing due to the BC induced snow-albedo effect to vary from 5–15 W m−2 within the region, an order of magnitude larger than radiative forcing due to the direct effect, and with significant seasonal variation in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Radiative forcing from reduced snow albedo likely accelerates glacier melting. Our analysis may help inform mitigation efforts to slow the rate of glacial melt by identifying regions that make the largest contributions to BC deposition in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.
We simulated elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) aerosols in China and compared model results to surface measurements at Chinese rural and background sites, with the goal of deriving ..."top-down" emission estimates of EC and OC, as well as better quantifying the secondary sources of OC. We included in the model state-of-the-science Chinese "bottom-up" emission inventories for EC (1.92 TgC yr−1) and OC (3.95 TgC yr−1), as well as updated secondary OC formation pathways. The average simulated annual mean EC concentration at rural and background sites was 1.1 μgC m−3, 56% lower than the observed 2.5 μgC m−3. The average simulated annual mean OC concentration at rural and background sites was 3.4 μgC m−3, 76% lower than the observed 14 μgC m−3. Multiple regression to fit surface monthly mean EC observations at rural and background sites yielded the best estimate of Chinese EC source of 3.05 ± 0.78 TgC yr−1. Based on the top-down EC emission estimate and observed seasonal primary OC/EC ratios, we estimated Chinese OC emissions to be 6.67 ± 1.30 TgC yr−1. Using these top-down estimates, the simulated average annual mean EC concentration at rural and background sites was significantly improved to 1.9 μgC m−3. However, the model still significantly underestimated observed OC in all seasons (simulated average annual mean OC at rural and background sites was 5.4 μgC m−3), with little skill in capturing the spatiotemporal variability. Secondary formation accounts for 21% of Chinese annual mean surface OC in the model, with isoprene being the most important precursor. In summer, as high as 62% of the observed surface OC may be due to secondary formation in eastern China. Our analysis points to four shortcomings in the current bottom-up inventories of Chinese carbonaceous aerosols: (1) the anthropogenic source is underestimated on a national scale, particularly for OC; (2) the spatiotemporal distributions of emissions are misrepresented; (3) there is a missing source in western China, likely associated with the use of biofuels or other low-quality fuels for heating; and (4) sources in fall are not well represented, either because the seasonal shifting of emissions and/or secondary formation are poorly captured or because specific fall emission events are missing. In addition, secondary production of OC in China is severely underestimated. More regional measurements with better spatiotemporal coverage are needed to resolve these shortcomings.
We combine CO column measurements from the MOPITT, AIRS, SCIAMACHY, and TES satellite instruments in a full-year (May 2004–April 2005) global inversion of CO sources at 4°×5° spatial resolution and ...monthly temporal resolution. The inversion uses the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) and its adjoint applied to MOPITT, AIRS, and SCIAMACHY. Observations from TES, surface sites (NOAA/GMD), and aircraft (MOZAIC) are used for evaluation of the a posteriori solution. Using GEOS-Chem as a common intercomparison platform shows global consistency between the different satellite datasets and with the in situ data. Differences can be largely explained by different averaging kernels and a priori information. The global CO emission from combustion as constrained in the inversion is 1350 Tg a−1. This is much higher than current bottom-up emission inventories. A large fraction of the correction results from a seasonal underestimate of CO sources at northern mid-latitudes in winter and suggests a larger-than-expected CO source from vehicle cold starts and residential heating. Implementing this seasonal variation of emissions solves the long-standing problem of models underestimating CO in the northern extratropics in winter-spring. A posteriori emissions also indicate a general underestimation of biomass burning in the GFED2 inventory. However, the tropical biomass burning constraints are not quantitatively consistent across the different datasets.
We assess the impact of transport of pollution from midlatitudes on the abundance of ozone in the Arctic in summer 2006 using the GEOS‐Chem global chemical transport model and its adjoint. We find ...that although the impact of midlatitude emissions on ozone abundances in the Arctic is at a maximum in fall and winter, in July transport from North America, Asia, and Europe together contributed about 25% of surface ozone abundances in the Arctic. Throughout the summer, the dominant source of ozone in the Arctic troposphere was photochemical production within the Arctic, which accounted for more than 50% of the ozone in the Arctic boundary layer and as much as 30%–40% of the ozone in the middle troposphere. An adjoint sensitivity analysis of the impact of NOx emissions on ozone at Alert shows that on synoptic time scales in both the lower and middle troposphere, ozone abundances are more sensitive to emissions between 50°N and 70°N, with important influences from anthropogenic, biomass burning, soil, and lightning sources. Although local surface NOx emissions contribute to ozone formation, transport of NOx in the form of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) from outside the Arctic and from the upper troposphere also contributed to ozone production in the lower troposphere. We find that in late May and June the release of NOx from PAN decomposition accounted for 93% and 55% of ozone production at the Arctic surface, respectively.
Key Points
Midlatitude source regions contribute 10‐25% of Arctic ozone in summer
On short time scales, Arctic O3 is most sensitive to NOx emissions at 50‐70N
NOx transported as PAN constitutes most of O3 produced in the Arctic spring
The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere‐land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B ...scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden.
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