Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with ...material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020-2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.
•Pycirk, a python package to create complex scenarios using the mrEEIOA database EXIOBASE (https://pypi.org/project/pycirk/).•Methods and blueprints to increase transparency of modeling assumptions ...for the Circular Economy.•A case study on two circular economy strategies - Product Life Extension and Resource Efficiency.
A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention or design. During the last decade, the circular economy became an attractive paradigm to increase global welfare while minimizing the environmental impacts of economic activities. Although several studies concerning the potential benefits and drawbacks of policies that implement the new paradigm have been performed, there is currently no standardized theoretical model or software to execute such assessment. In order to fill this gap, in the present paper we show how to perform these analyses using Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis. We also describe a python package (pycirk) for modeling Circular Economy scenarios in the context of the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output database EXIOBASE V3.3, for the year 2011. We exemplify the methods and software through a what-if zero-cost case study on two circular economy strategies (Resource Efficiency and Product Lifetime Extension), four environmental pressures and two socio-economic factors.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Circular business models (CBMs) and their potential environmental benefits have been widely assessed by using life cycle assessment (LCA). However, most LCA studies consider static systems and assume ...instant and full technology adoption, limiting the analysis of the implications of circular transitions. Considering technology diffusion in LCA models may bring a better understanding of the environmental implications of the adoption of CBMs. Nevertheless, diffusion is also related to stock dynamics, which are difficult to represent in classic LCA models. To overcome these issues, we propose a modeling framework that integrates three modeling families to assess the environmental impacts and material implications of the adoption of CBMs: diffusion of innovations, product stock dynamics, and LCA. We present a method of application and illustrate it with a theoretical case study. This framework might be useful in the socio‐economic analysis of systems transitioning to CBMs, especially in systems that involve long‐lived products.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Around 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in‐use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows ...to in‐use stocks are a key component in the circularity transition, since the reintegration of those materials back into the economy, at the end of the stock's life cycle, means that less extraction of raw materials is required. Thus, understanding the geographical, material, and sectoral distribution of material inflows to in‐use stocks globally is crucial for circular economy policies. Here we quantify the geographical, material, and sectoral distributions of material inflows to in‐use stocks of 43 countries and 5 rest‐of‐the‐world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid units input–output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Among all regions considered, China shows the largest amount of material added to in‐use stocks in 2011 (around 46% of global material inflows to in‐use stocks), with a per capita value that is comparable to high income regions such as Europe and North America. In these latter regions, more than 90% of in‐use stock additions are comprised of non‐metallic minerals (e.g., concrete, brick/stone, asphalt, and aggregates) and steel. We discuss the importance of understanding the distribution and composition of materials accumulated in society for a circularity transition. We also argue that future research should integrate the geographical and material resolution of our results into dynamic stock‐flow models to determine when these materials will be available for recovery and recycling. This article met the requirements for a Gold‐Gold JIE data openness badge described in http://jie.click/badges
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BFBNIB, DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The potential impacts on gross domestic product, employment, and carbon emissions of implementing a circular economy have been modelled at the national and multiregional levels using multiple ...scenarios. However, there is still no consensus on the magnitude of the impacts of a transition to a circular economy and on whether it will generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation in terms of macroeconomic, social and environmental benefits. In this paper, we review more than 300 circular economy scenarios in the time frame from 2020 to 2050. We classify each scenario according to the degree of intervention (i.e. ambitious or moderate), and perform a meta-analysis of the changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO2 emissions generated by each circular economy scenario compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Among other results, we find that in 2030 the implementation of ambitious circular economy scenarios could generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation with marginal or incremental changes in gross domestic product (median (mdn) = 2.0%; interquartile range (IQR) = 0.4–4.6%) and employment (mdn = 1.6%; IQR = 0.9–2.0%), while reducing CO2 emissions in a more substantial way (mdn = −24.6%; IQR = -34.0–8.2%). Furthermore, we discuss the modelling features (e.g. resource taxes, technology changes, and consumption patterns) suggested in the literature which yield the greatest changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO2 emissions. The outcomes of this paper are relevant to the scientific community and policy makers for understanding the magnitude of the macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of circular economy scenarios.
•We performed a meta-analysis of circular economy scenarios (CESs) from 2020 to 2050.•CESs for changes in GDP and job creation showed incremental changes.•CESs for changes in CO2 emissions were more significant, but values were largely spread.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) can be applied to assess the economic and environmental implications of a transition towards a circular economy. In spite of the existence of ...several such applications, a systematic assessment of the opportunities and limitations of EEIOA to quantify the impacts of circularity strategies is currently missing. This article brings the current state of EEIOA-based studies for assessing circularity interventions up to date and is organised around four categories: residual waste management, closing supply chains, product lifetime extension, and resource efficiency. Our findings show that residual waste management can be modelled by increasing the amount of waste flows absorbed by the waste treatment sector. Closing supply chains can be modelled by adjusting input and output coefficients to reuse and recycling activities and specifying such actions in the EEIOA model if they are not explicitly presented. Product lifetime extension can be modelled by combining an adapted final demand with adjusted input coefficients in production. The impacts of resource efficiency can be modelled by lowering input coefficients for a given output. The major limitation we found was that most EEIOA studies are performed using monetary units, while circularity policies are usually defined in physical units. This problem affects all categories of circularity interventions, but is particularly relevant for residual waste management, due to the disconnect between the monetary and physical value of waste flows. For future research, we therefore suggest the incorporation of physical and hybrid tables in the assessment of circularity interventions when using EEIOA.
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CEKLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, UL, UM, UPUK
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Due to increased policy attention on circular economy strategies, many studies have quantified material use and recovery at national and global scales. However, there has been no ...quantitative analysis of the unrecovered waste that can be potentially reintegrated into the economy as materials or products. This can be interpreted as the gap of material circularity. In this paper we define the circularity gap of a country as the generated waste, plus old materials removed from stocks and durable products disposed (i.e. stock depletion), minus recovered waste. We estimated the circularity gap of 43 nations and 5 rest of the world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid-units input-output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Our results show the trends of circularity gap in accordance to each region. For example, the circularity gaps of Europe and North America were between 1.6–2.2 tonnes per capita (t/cap), which are more than twice the global average gap (0.8 t/cap). Although these regions presented the major amount of material recovery, their circularity gaps were mostly related to the levels of stock depletion. In Africa and Asia-Pacific regions, the circularity gap was characterized by a low degree of recovery and stock depletion, with high levels of generated waste. Moreover, we discuss which intervention types can be implemented to minimize the circularity gap of nations.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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•MFA and LCA methods are combined to analyze Cu cycle and environmental impacts.•Six types of waste streams are investigated in relation to “Zero waste” strategies.•Reuse Cu from ...formal and informal collection is explored in Cu waste management.•Maximizing “Zero waste” options lead to 65% reduction of primary copper demand.•Maximizing “Zero waste” options lead to 55% reduction of total GHG emissions.
To conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the “Zero waste” concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper. Although several studies have assessed the copper demand and recycling, there is a lack of understanding on how different waste management options would potentially reduce primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in China in the context of energy transition. This study addresses this gap in view of a transition to low-carbon energy system and the optimization of copper waste management combining MFA and LCA approaches. Six types of waste streams (C&DW, ELV, WEEE, IEW, MSW, ICW) are investigated in relation to various “Zero waste” strategies including reduction, reuse (repair, remanufacturing or refurbishment), recycling and transition from informal to formal waste management. Under present Chinese policies, reuse and recycling of copper containing products will lead to a somewhat lower dependency on primary copper in 2100 (11187Gg), as well as lower total GHG emissions (64869 Gg CO2-eq.) and cumulative energy demand (1.18x10^12 MJ). Maximizing such “Zero waste” options may lead to a further reduction, resulting in 65% potential reduction of primary copper demand, around 55% potential reduction of total GHG emissions and total cumulative energy demand in 2100. Several policy actions are proposed to provide insights into future waste management in China as well as some of the challenges involved.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
El concepto de sustentabilidad ha sido utilizado en un extenso número de áreas de estudio, lo cual ha implicado múltiples interpretaciones sobre la definición de sustentabilidad. Este documento ...desarrolló de manera crítica un marco conceptual para la definición general sobre sustentabilidad a partir de propiedades termodinámicas que son aplicadas a sistemas adaptivos complejos. Primeramente, se hizo referenica a los orígenes de la percepción sobre desarrollo sustentable y la limitación en su aplicación para poder analizar la interacción entre un sistema y su entorno. Posteriormente, se tomó como base las propiedades de un sistema adaptivo complejo y se definió de forma conceptual cómo puede ser afectado un sistema por la restriccón de recursos e irreversibilidad de los procesos. Esto permitió dar una comprensión sobre el sistema adaptivo complejo utilizando la primera y la segunda ley de la termodinámica, en las cuales se desarrolló un marco conceptual para definir la sustentabilidad de un sistema. Del análisis emergió el factor exergético como un aspecto fundamental para determinar la sustentabilidad de un sistema adaptivo complejo. Con ello se presenta oportunidades para desarrollar estudios en múltiples sistemas tales como económicos, sociales y ambientales, en donde se requiere la interdisciplinaridad para generar un marco integral en la aplicación del concepto de sustentabilidad.
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