Accurately simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystem models is critical because errors in simulated GPP propagate through the model to introduce additional errors in ...simulated biomass and other fluxes. We evaluated simulated, daily average GPP from 26 models against estimated GPP at 39 eddy covariance flux tower sites across the United States and Canada. None of the models in this study match estimated GPP within observed uncertainty. On average, models overestimate GPP in winter, spring, and fall, and underestimate GPP in summer. Models overpredicted GPP under dry conditions and for temperatures below 0°C. Improvements in simulated soil moisture and ecosystem response to drought or humidity stress will improve simulated GPP under dry conditions. Adding a low‐temperature response to shut down GPP for temperatures below 0°C will reduce the positive bias in winter, spring, and fall and improve simulated phenology. The negative bias in summer and poor overall performance resulted from mismatches between simulated and observed light use efficiency (LUE). Improving simulated GPP requires better leaf‐to‐canopy scaling and better values of model parameters that control the maximum potential GPP, such asεmax (LUE), Vcmax (unstressed Rubisco catalytic capacity) or Jmax (the maximum electron transport rate).
Key Points
Gross primary productivity (GPP) from 26 models tested at 39 flux tower sites
Simulated light use efficiency controls model performance
Models overpredict GPP under dry conditions
Carbonyl sulfide (COS) measurements are one of the emerging tools to better quantify gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux in the global carbon cycle. COS is a gas with a similar structure ...to CO2; COS uptake is thought to be a proxy for GPP. However, soils are a potential source or sink of COS. This study presents a framework for understanding soil–COS interactions. Excluding wetlands, most of the few observations of isolated soils that have been made show small uptake of atmospheric COS. Recently, a series of studies at an agricultural site in the central United States found soil COS production under hot conditions an order of magnitude greater than fluxes at other sites. To investigate the extent of this phenomenon, soils were collected from five new sites and incubated in a variety of soil moisture and temperature states. We found that soils from a desert, an oak savannah, a deciduous forest, and a rainforest exhibited small COS fluxes, behavior resembling previous studies. However, soil from an agricultural site in Illinois, > 800 km away from the initial central US study site, demonstrated comparably large soil fluxes under similar conditions. These new data suggest that, for the most part, soil COS interaction is negligible compared to plant uptake of COS. We present a model that anticipates the large agricultural soil fluxes so that they may be taken into account. While COS air-monitoring data are consistent with the dominance of plant uptake, improved interpretation of these data should incorporate the soil flux parameterizations suggested here.
As part of the CarbonWatch-NZ research programme, air samples were collected at 28 sites around Auckland, New Zealand, to determine the atmospheric ratio (RCO) of excess (local enhancement over ...background) carbon monoxide to fossil CO2 (CO2ff). Sites were categorized into seven types (background, forest, industrial, suburban, urban, downwind and motorway) to observe RCO around Auckland. Motorway flasks observed RCO of 14 ± 1 ppb ppm-1 and were used to evaluate traffic RCO. The similarity between suburban (14 ± 1 ppb ppm-1) and traffic RCO suggests that traffic dominates suburban CO2ff emissions during daytime hours, the period of flask collection. The lower urban RCO (11 ± 1 ppb ppm-1) suggests that urban CO2ff emissions are comprised of more than just traffic, with contributions from residential, commercial and industrial sources, all with a lower RCO than traffic. Finally, the downwind sites were believed to best represent RCO for Auckland City overall (11 ± 1 ppb ppm-1). We demonstrate that the initial discrepancy between the downwind RCO and Auckland's estimated daytime inventory RCO (15 ppb ppm-1) can be attributed to an overestimation in inventory traffic CO emissions. After revision based on our observed motorway RCO, the revised inventory RCO (12 ppb ppm-1) is consistent with our observations. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.
Carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS), the most abundant sulfur‐containing gas in the troposphere, has recently emerged as a potentially important atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Atmospheric inverse ...modeling studies may be able to use existing tower, airborne, and satellite observations of COS to infer information about photosynthesis. However, such analysis relies on gridded anthropogenic COS source estimates that are largely based on industry activity data from over three decades ago. Here we use updated emission factor data and industry activity data to develop a gridded inventory with a 0.1° resolution for the U.S. domain. The inventory includes the primary anthropogenic COS sources including direct emissions from the coal and aluminum industries as well as indirect sources from industrial carbon disulfide emissions. Compared to the previously published inventory, we found that the total anthropogenic source (direct and indirect) is 47% smaller. Using this new gridded inventory to drive the Sulfur Transport and Deposition Model/Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric transport model, we found that the anthropogenic contribution to COS variation in the troposphere is small relative to the biosphere influence, which is encouraging for carbon cycle applications in this region. Additional anthropogenic sectors with highly uncertain emission factors require further field measurements.
Key Points
Anthropogenic COS inventories derived from over three‐decade old data are still being used in atmospheric studies
Updated anthropogenic COS inventories show significantly different magnitudes and spatial patterns
Inferring process‐level carbon cycle fluxes with COS requires updated anthropogenic COS fluxes
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Regional carbon budget assessments attribute and track changes in carbon sources and sinks and support the development and monitoring the efficacy of climate policies. We present a comprehensive ...assessment of the natural and anthropogenic carbon (C‐CO2) fluxes for Australasia as a whole, as well as for Australia and New Zealand individually, for the period from 2010 to 2019, using two approaches: bottom‐up methods that integrate flux estimates from land‐surface models, data‐driven models, and inventory estimates; and top‐down atmospheric inversions based on satellite and in situ measurements. Our bottom‐up decadal assessment suggests that Australasia's net carbon balance was close to carbon neutral (−0.4 ± 77.0 TgC yr−1). However, substantial uncertainties remain in this estimate, primarily driven by the large spread between our regional terrestrial biosphere simulations and predictions from global ecosystem models. Within Australasia, Australia was a net source of 38.2 ± 75.8 TgC yr−1, and New Zealand was a net CO2 sink of −38.6 ± 13.4 TgC yr−1. The top‐down approach using atmospheric CO2 inversions indicates that fluxes derived from the latest satellite retrievals are consistent within the range of uncertainties with Australia's bottom‐up budget. For New Zealand, the best agreement was found with a national scale flux inversion estimate based on in situ measurements, which provide better constrained of fluxes than satellite flux inversions. This study marks an important step toward a more comprehensive understanding of the net CO2 balance in both countries, facilitating the improvement of carbon accounting approaches and strategies to reduce emissions.
Plain Language Summary
Human activities—including the extraction and use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), cement production, and land‐use change (e.g., land clearing), release carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, while biospheric processes such as the CO2 uptake by forests and revegetation remove CO2 from the atmosphere. In this study, we assess the balance of natural and human‐driven sources and sinks of CO2 for Australia and New Zealand (referred to as the Australasia carbon budget) for 2010–2019. Our findings indicate that Australasia was close to carbon neutral, with large uncertainties, suggesting that the CO2 sinks from vegetation in this region largely offset the CO2 emissions from human activities. An independent assessment using the latest satellite observations and modeling shows consistent results for Australia. For New Zealand, a national system of ground observations and modeling agreed better with the bottom‐up budget than satellite‐derived flux estimates.
Key Points
We synthesize Australasia's carbon C‐CO2 budget (together with Australia and New Zealand) based on bottom‐up and top‐down approaches
Australasia's bottom‐up carbon budget suggests that this region was close to neutral (−0.4 ± 77.0 TgC yr−1) from 2010 to 2019
Australasia's annual CO2 balance fluctuates significantly, particularly in Australia, shifting from a strong carbon sink to a strong carbon source
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Accurate, high‐resolution and sector‐specific greenhouse gas emissions information is increasingly needed for the development of local, targeted mitigation policies. We describe a detailed, spatially ...and temporally resolved CO2 emissions data product, Mahuika‐Auckland, for Auckland, New Zealand, based on Auckland's regional greenhouse gas and air emissions inventories. Emissions are provided at 500 m spatial resolution and at a 1‐hr time step, a level of detail not previously available for any New Zealand city. We divide fossil fuel emissions into six sectors that comprise the majority of Auckland Region's CO2 emissions profile: on‐road transport, industrial non‐point buildings and point sources, commercial non‐point buildings, residential non‐point buildings, air transport and sea transport. We also include separate layers representing biogenic CO2 emissions (primarily waste and wood burning), as these are significant sources in Auckland. We distribute emissions spatially and temporally based on activity data, energy and fuel consumption patterns, and population statistics. The code to generate Mahuika‐Auckland has been designed to be flexible so that updated information and/or data from more recent years can easily be incorporated. This data product improves upon New Zealand's current inventories that are only resolved at the regional and annual scale, providing a new level of detail that can be used as a prior estimate for atmospheric inversions, to inform emissions reduction policies and to guide the development of zero carbon pathways.
We have developed a detailed, spatially and temporally resolved CO2 emissions data product, ‘Mahuika‐Auckland’, for Auckland, New Zealand. Emissions are provided at 500 m spatial resolution and 1‐hr time step for six sectors. This data product improves upon Auckland's current CO2 inventory that is only resolved at the regional and annual scale, providing a new level of detail that can be used as a prior estimate for atmospheric inversions and to inform emissions reduction policies.
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Regional gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates are crucial to estimating carbon-climate feedbacks but are highly uncertain with existing methods. An emerging approach uses atmospheric carbonyl ...sulphide (COS) as a tracer for carbon dioxide: COS plant uptake is simulated by scaling GPP. A critical parameter for this method is leaf-scale relative uptake (LRU). Plant chamber and eddy covariance studies find a narrow range of LRU values but some atmospheric modelling studies assign values well outside this range. Here we study this discrepancy by conducting new regional chemical transport simulations for North America using the underlying data from previous studies. We find the wide range of ecosystem model GPP estimates can explain the discrepancy in LRU values. We also find that COS concentration uncertainty is more sensitive to GPP uncertainty than to LRU parameter uncertainty. These results support the COS tracer technique as a useful approach for constraining GPP estimates.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Scientific Communities Striving for a Common Cause WHELAN, MARY E.; ANDEREGG, LEANDER D. L.; BADGLEY, GRAYSON ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
09/2020, Volume:
101, Issue:
9
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Where does the carbon released by burning fossil fuels go? Currently, ocean and land systems remove about half of the CO₂ emitted by human activities; the remainder stays in the atmosphere. These ...removal processes are sensitive to feedbacks in the energy, carbon, and water cycles that will change in the future. Observing how much carbon is taken up on land through photosynthesis is complicated because carbon is simultaneously respired by plants, animals, and microbes. Global observations from satellites and air samples suggest that natural ecosystems take up about as much CO₂ as they emit. To match the data, our land models generate imaginary Earths where carbon uptake and respiration are roughly balanced, but the absolute quantities of carbon being exchanged vary widely. Getting the magnitude of the flux is essential to make sure our models are capturing the right pattern for the right reasons. Combining two cutting-edge tools, carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), will help develop an independent answer of how much carbon is being taken up by global ecosystems. Photosynthesis requires CO₂, light, and water. OCS provides a spatially and temporally integrated picture of the “front door” of photosynthesis, proportional to CO₂ uptake and water loss through plant stomata. SIF provides a high-resolution snapshot of the “side door,” scaling with the light captured by leaves. These two independent pieces of information help us understand plant water and carbon exchange. A coordinated effort to generate SIF and OCS data through satellite, airborne, and ground observations will improve our process-based models to predict how these cycles will change in the future.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•CLM experiments examine reduced precipitation with other conditions constant.•This setup simulates the ongoing International Drought Experiment (IDE) field observation protocol.•Together with IDE ...observations these results can test CLM structure.•These results can help to identify the spatial extent of IDE-observed drought effects.
Anthropogenic climate change will alter regional hydrologic cycles around the world, in part by increasing the frequency or duration of droughts in some areas. The International Drought Experiment (IDE) is investigating the impact of severe drought on terrestrial vegetation by experimentally reducing precipitation at dozens of sites. Here we implement the IDE precipitation reduction protocol using the Community Land Model (CLM). Though many model results suggest that carbon fertilization will outpace drought-caused reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, uncertainty is large. We therefore configure CLM to consider carbon cycling impacts of reduced moisture availability without intertwining the effects of carbon fertilization or phenological changes. California hosts a number of IDE sites and a wide range of topography, climate, and biomes. CMIP5 predictions suggest 21st century California will experience droughts in excess of the 1000-year climatological record for both frequency and magnitude. CLM suggests that some regions, including much of Northern California, may experience a steeper decline in gross primary productivity (GPP) during 21st century severe droughts than during 20th century severe droughts. Vegetation in Northern California experiences virtually all of this GPP reduction during the dry season, with little wet season GPP reduction even during severe drought. Southern California vegetation experiences soil moisture GPP limitation at virtually all times, increasing substantially with drought severity. Southern California should experience a more pronounced shift in GPP seasonality and decline in magnitude relative to Northern California during droughts. Some parts of every vegetated continent see changes to drought response and seasonality similar to Southern California. Our CLM results provide drought impacts that forthcoming IDE field observations may test, can help to spatially upscale site-based IDE observations of drought impact, and provide CLM's prediction of reduced precipitation impacts per unit leaf area index.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has recently emerged as an atmospheric tracer of gross primary production. All modeling studies of COS air‐monitoring data rely on a climatological anthropogenic inventory that ...does not reflect present conditions or support interpretation of ice core and firn trends. Here we develop a global anthropogenic inventory for the years 1850 to 2013 based on new emission measurements and material‐specific data. By applying methods from a recent regional inventory to global data, we find that the anthropogenic source is similar in magnitude to the plant sink, confounding carbon cycle applications. However, a material‐specific approach results in a current anthropogenic source that is only one third of plant uptake and is concentrated in Asia, supporting carbon cycle applications of global air‐monitoring data. Furthermore, changes in the anthropogenic source alone cannot explain the century‐scale mixing ratio growth, which suggests that ice and firn data may provide the first global history of gross primary production.
Key Points
First temporally explicit inventory of COS anthropogenic sources
Current source is much smaller than suggested by previous methods
Ice core data may contain the first global history of gross primary production
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
PDF
