The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission planned for launch in 2020 will map river elevations and inundated area globally for rivers >100 m wide. In advance of this launch, we ...here evaluated the possibility of estimating discharge in ungauged rivers using synthetic, daily “remote sensing” measurements derived from hydraulic models corrupted with minimal observational errors. Five discharge algorithms were evaluated, as well as the median of the five, for 19 rivers spanning a range of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions. Reliance upon a priori information, and thus applicability to truly ungauged reaches, varied among algorithms: one algorithm employed only global limits on velocity and depth, while the other algorithms relied on globally available prior estimates of discharge. We found at least one algorithm able to estimate instantaneous discharge to within 35% relative root‐mean‐squared error (RRMSE) on 14/16 nonbraided rivers despite out‐of‐bank flows, multichannel planforms, and backwater effects. Moreover, we found RRMSE was often dominated by bias; the median standard deviation of relative residuals across the 16 nonbraided rivers was only 12.5%. SWOT discharge algorithm progress is therefore encouraging, yet future efforts should consider incorporating ancillary data or multialgorithm synergy to improve results.
Key Points:
SWOT discharge algorithms were tested on synthetic observations for 19 rivers
Algorithms accurately characterized temporal dynamics of river discharge
At least one algorithm estimated discharge to <35% relative RMSE on 14/16 of nonbraided rivers
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Methylation of the SKA2 (spindle and kinetochore-associated complex subunit 2) gene has recently been identified as a promising biomarker of suicide risk. Based on this finding, we examined ...associations between SKA2 methylation, cortical thickness and psychiatric phenotypes linked to suicide in trauma-exposed veterans. About 200 trauma-exposed white non-Hispanic veterans of the recent conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan (91% male) underwent clinical assessment and had blood drawn for genotyping and methylation analysis. Of all, 145 participants also had neuroimaging data available. Based on previous research, we examined DNA methylation at the cytosine-guanine locus cg13989295 as well as DNA methylation adjusted for genotype at the methylation-associated single nucleotide polymorphism (rs7208505) in relationship to whole-brain cortical thickness, posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms (PTSD) and depression symptoms. Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses identified three clusters in prefrontal cortex that were associated with genotype-adjusted SKA2 DNA methylation (methylation(adj)). Specifically, DNA methylation(adj) was associated with bilateral reductions of cortical thickness in frontal pole and superior frontal gyrus, and similar effects were found in the right orbitofrontal cortex and right inferior frontal gyrus. PTSD symptom severity was positively correlated with SKA2 DNA methylation(adj) and negatively correlated with cortical thickness in these regions. Mediation analyses showed a significant indirect effect of PTSD on cortical thickness via SKA2 methylation status. Results suggest that DNA methylation(adj) of SKA2 in blood indexes stress-related psychiatric phenotypes and neurobiology, pointing to its potential value as a biomarker of stress exposure and susceptibility.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
The neonatal crystallizable fragment receptor (FcRn) functions as an intracellular protection receptor for immunoglobulin G (IgG). Recently, several clinical studies have reported the lowering of ...circulating monomeric IgG levels through FcRn blockade for the potential treatment of autoimmune diseases. Many autoimmune diseases, however, are derived from the effects of IgG immune complexes (ICs). We generated, characterized, and assessed the effects of SYNT001, a FcRn-blocking monoclonal antibody, in mice, nonhuman primates (NHPs), and humans. SYNT001 decreased all IgG subtypes and IgG ICs in the circulation of humans, as we show in a first-in-human phase 1, single ascending dose study. In addition, IgG IC induction of inflammatory pathways was dependent on FcRn and inhibited by SYNT001. These studies expand the role of FcRn in humans by showing that it controls not only IgG protection from catabolism but also inflammatory pathways associated with IgG ICs involved in a variety of autoimmune diseases.
An endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) gene polymorphism (Glu298Asp) has been associated with cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether carriage of the polymorphism was associated with ...functional changes in the endothelium, and how genotype altered the harmful and beneficial impact of environmental influences on the endothelium. Endothelium-dependent, flow-mediated brachial artery dilatation (FMD) and endothelium-independent dilatation response to glyceryl trinitrate were measured using high-resolution ultrasound in 248 subjects (131 female, 117 male, aged 20 to 28) genotyped for the Glu298Asp polymorphism. Vascular function was compared between genotype groups and interactions with the proatherogenic risk factor, smoking, and the antiatherogenic influence of n-3 fatty acids (n-3FA) were investigated. Vascular function was not related to genotype in the group as a whole or within sexes. However, among males, smoking was associated with lower FMD in Asp298 carriers (nonsmokers 0.125±0.085 mm versus smokers 0.070±0.060 mm, P =0.006) but not in Glu298 homozygotes (nonsmokers 0.103±0.090 mm versus smokers 0.124±0.106, P =0.5). In the whole group, n-3FA levels were positively related to FMD in Asp298 carriers (reg coeff=0.023 mm/%, P =0.04, r =0.20) but not in Glu298 homozygotes (reg coeff=−0.019 mm/%, P =0.1). These differences between genotype groups were significant in interaction models. The Glu298Asp polymorphism is associated with differences in endothelial responses to both smoking and n-3 FA in healthy young subjects. These findings raise the possibility of genotype-specific prevention strategies in cardiovascular disease.
A large, pregnant, female bull shark Carcharhinus leucas was tracked migrating from Seychelles across open ocean to south‐east Madagascar, c. 2000 km away, and back again. In Madagascar, the shark ...spent a prolonged period shallower than 5 m, consistent with entering estuarine habitat to pup, and upon return to Seychelles the shark was slender and no longer gravid. This represents an unprecedented return migration across the open ocean for a C. leucas and highlights the need for international collaboration to manage the regional C. leucas population sustainably.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Animals switch between inactive and active states, simultaneously impacting their energy intake, energy expenditure and predation risk, and collectively defining how they engage with environmental ...variation and trophic interactions. We assess daily activity responses to long‐term variation in temperature, resources and mating opportunities to examine whether individuals choose to be active or inactive according to an optimisation of the relative energetic and reproductive gains each state offers. We show that this simplified behavioural decision approach predicts most activity variation (R2 = 0.83) expressed by free‐ranging red squirrels over 4 years, as quantified through accelerometer recordings (489 deployments; 5066 squirrel‐days). Recognising activity as a determinant of energetic status, the predictability of activity variation aggregated at a daily scale, and the clear signal that behaviour is environmentally forced through optimisation of gain, provides an integrated approach to examine behavioural variation as an intermediary between environmental variation and energetic, life‐history and ecological outcomes.
By assessing daily activity responses to long‐term variation in temperature, resources, and mating opportunities, we examine whether individuals choose to be active or inactive according to an optimization of energetic and reproductive gains. This simplified behavioural decision approach predicts most daily activity variation (R2 = 0.83) expressed by free‐ranging red squirrels over four years, as quantified through accelerometer recordings. Here we provide an integrated approach to examine behavioural variation as an intermediary between environmental variation and energetic, life‐history, and ecological outcomes.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Objectives To assess the performance of a panel of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (genotypes) associated with type 2 diabetes in distinguishing incident cases of future type 2 diabetes ...(discrimination), and to examine the effect of adding genetic information to previously validated non-genetic (phenotype based) models developed to estimate the absolute risk of type 2 diabetes.Design Workplace based prospective cohort study with three 5 yearly medical screenings.Participants 5535 initially healthy people (mean age 49 years; 33% women), of whom 302 developed new onset type 2 diabetes over 10 years.Outcome measures Non-genetic variables included in two established risk models—the Cambridge type 2 diabetes risk score (age, sex, drug treatment, family history of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, smoking status) and the Framingham offspring study type 2 diabetes risk score (age, sex, parental history of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose)—and 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with susceptibility to type 2 diabetes. Cases of incident type 2 diabetes were defined on the basis of a standard oral glucose tolerance test, self report of a doctor’s diagnosis, or the use of anti-diabetic drugs.Results A genetic score based on the number of risk alleles carried (range 0-40; area under receiver operating characteristics curve 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.58) and a genetic risk function in which carriage of risk alleles was weighted according to the summary odds ratios of their effect from meta-analyses of genetic studies (area under receiver operating characteristics curve 0.55, 0.51 to 0.59) did not effectively discriminate cases of diabetes. The Cambridge risk score (area under curve 0.72, 0.69 to 0.76) and the Framingham offspring risk score (area under curve 0.78, 0.75 to 0.82) led to better discrimination of cases than did genotype based tests. Adding genetic information to phenotype based risk models did not improve discrimination and provided only a small improvement in model calibration and a modest net reclassification improvement of about 5% when added to the Cambridge risk score but not when added to the Framingham offspring risk score.Conclusion The phenotype based risk models provided greater discrimination for type 2 diabetes than did models based on 20 common independently inherited diabetes risk alleles. The addition of genotypes to phenotype based risk models produced only minimal improvement in accuracy of risk estimation assessed by recalibration and, at best, a minor net reclassification improvement. The major translational application of the currently known common, small effect genetic variants influencing susceptibility to type 2 diabetes is likely to come from the insight they provide on causes of disease and potential therapeutic targets.
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BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
A fractional order COVID-19 model consisting of six compartments in Caputo sense is constructed. The indirect transmission of the virus through susceptible populations by the shedding effect is ...studied. Equilibrium solutions are calculated, and basic reproduction ratio (that depends both on direct and indirect mode of transmission), existence and uniqueness, as well as stability analysis of the solution of the model, are studied. The paper studies the effect of optimal control policy applied to shedding effect. The control is the observation of standard hygiene practices and chemical disinfectants in public spaces. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytic result and to show the significance of the fractional order from the biological viewpoint.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Most empirical attempts to explain the evolution of parental care have focused on its costs and benefits (i.e. fitness consequences). In contrast, few investigations have been made of the other ...necessary prerequisite for evolutionary change, inheritance. Here, we examine the fitness consequences and heritability (h²) of a post‐weaning parental care behaviour (territory bequeathal) in a wild population of North American red squirrels. Each year, a subset (average across all years = 19%) of reproductive females bequeathed their territory to a dependent offspring. Bequeathing females experienced higher annual reproductive success and did not suffer a survival cost to themselves relative to those females retaining their territory. Bequeathing females thus realized higher relative annual fitness ω = 1.18 ± 0.03 (SE) than nonbequeathing females ω = 0.96 ± 0.02 (SE). Additive genetic influences on bequeathal behaviour, however, were not significantly different from 0 (h² = 1.9 × 10⁻³; 95% highest posterior density interval = 3.04 × 10⁻⁸ to 0.37) and, in fact, bequeathal behaviour was not significantly repeatable (R = 2.0 × 10⁻³; 95% HPD interval =0–0.27). In contrast, directional environmental influences were apparent. Females were more likely to bequeath in years following low food abundance and when food availability in the upcoming autumn was high. Despite an evident fitness benefit, a lack of heritable genetic variance will constrain evolution of this trait.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Mast seeding involves the episodic and synchronous production of large seed crops by perennial plants. The predator satiation hypothesis proposes that mast seeding maximizes seed escape because seed ...predators consume a decreasing proportion of available seeds with increasing seed production. However, the seed escape benefits of masting depend not only on whether predators are satiated at high levels of seed production, but also on the shape of their functional response (type II vs. type III), and the actual proportion of available seeds that they consume at different levels of seed production. North American red squirrels (
Tamiasciurus hudsonicus
) are the primary vertebrate predator of white spruce (
Picea glauca
) mast seed crops in many boreal regions because they hoard unopened cones in underground locations, preempting the normal sequence of cone opening, seed dispersal, and seed germination. We document the functional response of cone-hoarding by red squirrels across three non-mast years and one mast year by estimating the number of cones present in the territories of individual red squirrels and the proportion of these cones that they hoarded each autumn. Even though red squirrels are not constrained by the ingestive and on-body (fat reserves) energy reserve limitations experienced by animals that consume seeds directly, most squirrels hoarded <10% of the cones present on their territories under mast conditions. Cone availability during non-mast years also reached levels that satiated the hoarding activity of red squirrels; however, this occurred only on the highest-quality territories. Squirrels switched to mushroom-hoarding when cone production was low and mushrooms were abundant. This resulted in type III functional response whereby the proportional harvest of cones was highest at levels of cone availability that were intermediate within non-mast years. Overall, more cones escaped squirrel cone-hoarding during a mast event than when cone production was low in non-mast years, which supports the predator satiation hypothesis. However, the highly variable seed escape in non-mast years may help to explain why all spruce cone production is not concentrated into fewer, larger, mast years.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
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