The war in Yemen has transformed the Iran-Houthi partnership. Iran has built significant influence in Yemen since 2015, but the Houthis are not a simple arm of its foreign policy: Iran has ...bandwagoned on Houthi successes as much as it has caused them. For Iran, supporting the Houthis is an appealing proposition: at a low cost, it has contributed to getting Saudi Arabia bogged down in a costly war. This article analyses the causes and consequences of the quantitative and qualitative shifts in Iran's support for the Houthis. After laying out the strategic rationale for the expansion of the partnership, it explains how this has represented an important victory for Iran and how these developments mirror other trends in the evolution of the constellation of revisionist actors Iran supports.
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Canada is a key member of the world's most important
international intelligence-sharing partnership, the Five Eyes,
along with the US, the UK, New Zealand, and Australia. Until now,
few scholars have ...looked beyond the US to study how effectively
intelligence analysts support policy makers, who rely on timely,
forward-thinking insights to shape high-level foreign, national
security, and defense policy.
Intelligence Analysis and Policy Making provides the
first in-depth look at the relationship between intelligence and
policy in Canada. Thomas Juneau and Stephanie Carvin, both former
analysts in the Canadian national security sector, conducted
seventy in-depth interviews with serving and retired policy and
intelligence practitioners, at a time when Canada's intelligence
community underwent sweeping institutional changes.
Juneau and Carvin provide critical recommendations for improving
intelligence performance in supporting policy-with implications for
other countries that, like Canada, are not superpowers but small or
mid-sized countries in need of intelligence that supports their
unique interests.
Examining Iranian foreign policy, with a focus on the years since 2001, this book analyses the defining feature of Iran's international and regional posture, its strategic loneliness, and the ...implications of this for the Islamic Republic's foreign policy.
Iranian Foreign Policy since 2001 offers an in-depth analysis of the key drivers behind Iran's foreign policy; power, strategic culture, and ideology. In addition, the authors examine Iran's relations with key countries and regions, including its often tenuous relations with China, Russia and America, as well as its bilateral relations with non-state actors such as Hezbollah. The common thread running throughout the volume is that Iran is alone in the world: regardless of its political manoeuvrings, the Islamic Republic's regional and international posture is largely one of strategic loneliness.
Assimilating contributions from the US, Canada, Europe and Iran, this book provides an international perspective, both at the theoretical and practical levels and is essential reading for those with an interest in Middle Eastern Politics, International Relations and Political Science more broadly.
Abstract
Neoclassical realism has carved a unique niche by offering a theoretically derived and empirically rich foreign policy analysis framework. Over the years, it has branched out as a theory of ...mistakes (Type I), a theory of foreign policy (Type II), and a theory of international politics (Type III). This article proposes another challenge to consolidate its offer of a progressive research agenda to position it as a theory for correcting mistakes. The theory of mistakes version differentiates ideal from actual foreign policy. The ideal corresponds to foreign policy that follows the pressures and incentives of the international system; structural realism, the basis for this optimal baseline, is here viewed as a normative theory. If there is a gap between the ideal baseline and the actual outcome, then foreign policy is sub-optimal and therefore costly. According to neoclassical realists, this is the result of the intervention of domestic political processes hijacking foreign policy. It follows that pointing out how to reduce the distorting impact of these domestic variables should help steer foreign policy toward optimality. By identifying the negative consequences that follow from a sub-optimal foreign policy, a theory for correcting mistakes also opens the door to developing prescriptions to manage the inevitable fallout.
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The Islamic Republic of Iran faced a favorable strategic environment following the US invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Its leadership attempted to exploit this window of opportunity ...by assertively seeking to expand Iran's interests throughout the Middle East. It fell far short, however, of fulfilling its long-standing ambition of becoming the dominant power in the Persian Gulf and a leading regional power in the broader Middle East.In Squandered Opportunity, Thomas Juneau develops a variant of neoclassical realism, a theory of foreign policy mistakes, to explore the causes and consequences of Iran's sub-optimal performance. He argues that while rising power drove Iranian assertiveness—as most variants of realism would predict—the peculiar nature of Iran's power and the intervention of specific domestic factors caused Iran's foreign policy to deviate, sometimes significantly, from what would be considered the potential optimal outcomes.Juneau explains that this sub-optimal foreign policy led to important and negative consequences for the country. Despite some gains, Iran failed to maximize its power, its security and its influence in three crucial areas: the Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; and the nuclear program. Juneau also predicts that, as the window of opportunity steadily closes for Iran, its power, security, and influence will likely continue to decline in coming years.
Saudi Arabia faced multiple threats from Yemen in 2015: its southern neighbor had collapsed; a hostile sub-state actor, the Houthis, was entrenching itself along the border; and the presence of its ...rival Iran was growing. Responding was rational; it would have been sub-optimal for Riyadh to underbalance by doing little to counter the threat. Instead, however, Saudi Arabia overbalanced by launching a major air campaign and imposing a maritime and air blockade; as a result, it became bogged down in a costly war it cannot win. Why was this the case, and with what consequences? To answer this question, this article develops and applies a neoclassical realist theory of overbalancing. The first objective is nomothetic: to develop a theory of overbalancing, an important phenomenon neglected by the balancing literature. The second is empirical: to shed light on the Saudi decision to launch the war in Yemen.
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National security and intelligence communities in democracies have traditionally not been very transparent, in general and specifically in their relations with minority communities. This goes against ...basic principles of democratic governance, but it is also counterproductive: the lack of transparency hinders these organizations' ability to protect national security. This article argues that a broader, proactive definition of transparency should replace traditional perspectives to better support enhanced engagement with minority communities. Next, it explains that for its gains to be sustainable, transparency must be institutionalized into the everyday work of national security organizations. Yet enhancing transparency is easier said than done: while the gains tend to emerge in the longer term, risks emerge in the short term. The article concludes by recognizing that enhancing national security transparency in relations with minority communities, although necessary, is complex and time-consuming, a reality underestimated by some of its proponents in civil society.
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