As population genomic datasets grow in size, researchers are faced with the daunting task of making sense of a flood of information. To keep pace with this explosion of data, computational ...methodologies for population genetic inference are rapidly being developed to best utilize genomic sequence data. In this review we discuss a new paradigm that has emerged in computational population genomics: that of supervised machine learning (ML). We review the fundamentals of ML, discuss recent applications of supervised ML to population genetics that outperform competing methods, and describe promising future directions in this area. Ultimately, we argue that supervised ML is an important and underutilized tool that has considerable potential for the world of evolutionary genomics.
ML methods are powerful approaches that have revolutionized many fields, but their use in population genetics inference is only beginning.
These methods are able to take advantage of high dimensional input – an important asset for population genetics inference – and are often more robust than other statistical approaches.
The early applications of ML to population genetics demonstrate that they outperform traditional approaches.
In this review we introduce ML to a biology audience, discuss examples of their application to evolutionary and population genetics, and lay out future directions that we view as promising.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
In this perspective, we evaluate the explanatory power of the neutral theory of molecular evolution, 50 years after its introduction by Kimura. We argue that the neutral theory was supported by ...unreliable theoretical and empirical evidence from the beginning, and that in light of modern, genome-scale data, we can firmly reject its universality. The ubiquity of adaptive variation both within and between species means that a more comprehensive theory of molecular evolution must be sought.
The degree to which adaptation in recent human evolution shapes genetic variation remains controversial. This is in part due to the limited evidence in humans for classic "hard selective sweeps", ...wherein a novel beneficial mutation rapidly sweeps through a population to fixation. However, positive selection may often proceed via "soft sweeps" acting on mutations already present within a population. Here, we examine recent positive selection across six human populations using a powerful machine learning approach that is sensitive to both hard and soft sweeps. We found evidence that soft sweeps are widespread and account for the vast majority of recent human adaptation. Surprisingly, our results also suggest that linked positive selection affects patterns of variation across much of the genome, and may increase the frequencies of deleterious mutations. Our results also reveal insights into the role of sexual selection, cancer risk, and central nervous system development in recent human evolution.
Detecting the targets of adaptive natural selection from whole genome sequencing data is a central problem for population genetics. However, to date most methods have shown sub-optimal performance ...under realistic demographic scenarios. Moreover, over the past decade there has been a renewed interest in determining the importance of selection from standing variation in adaptation of natural populations, yet very few methods for inferring this model of adaptation at the genome scale have been introduced. Here we introduce a new method, S/HIC, which uses supervised machine learning to precisely infer the location of both hard and soft selective sweeps. We show that S/HIC has unrivaled accuracy for detecting sweeps under demographic histories that are relevant to human populations, and distinguishing sweeps from linked as well as neutrally evolving regions. Moreover, we show that S/HIC is uniquely robust among its competitors to model misspecification. Thus, even if the true demographic model of a population differs catastrophically from that specified by the user, S/HIC still retains impressive discriminatory power. Finally, we apply S/HIC to the case of resequencing data from human chromosome 18 in a European population sample, and demonstrate that we can reliably recover selective sweeps that have been identified earlier using less specific and sensitive methods.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Across the human genome, there are large-scale fluctuations in genetic diversity caused by the indirect effects of selection. This "linked selection signal" reflects the impact of selection according ...to the physical placement of functional regions and recombination rates along chromosomes. Previous work has shown that purifying selection acting against the steady influx of new deleterious mutations at functional portions of the genome shapes patterns of genomic variation. To date, statistical efforts to estimate purifying selection parameters from linked selection models have relied on classic Background Selection theory, which is only applicable when new mutations are so deleterious that they cannot fix in the population. Here, we develop a statistical method based on a quantitative genetics view of linked selection, that models how polygenic additive fitness variance distributed along the genome increases the rate of stochastic allele frequency change. By jointly predicting the equilibrium fitness variance and substitution rate due to both strong and weakly deleterious mutations, we estimate the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) and mutation rate across three geographically distinct human samples. While our model can accommodate weaker selection, we find evidence of strong selection operating similarly across all human samples. Although our quantitative genetic model of linked selection fits better than previous models, substitution rates of the most constrained sites disagree with observed divergence levels. We find that a model incorporating selective interference better predicts observed divergence in conserved regions, but overall our results suggest uncertainty remains about the processes generating fitness variation in humans.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Hybridization and gene flow between species appears to be common. Even though it is clear that hybridization is widespread across all surveyed taxonomic groups, the magnitude and consequences of ...introgression are still largely unknown. Thus it is crucial to develop the statistical machinery required to uncover which genomic regions have recently acquired haplotypes via introgression from a sister population. We developed a novel machine learning framework, called FILET (Finding Introgressed Loci via Extra-Trees) capable of revealing genomic introgression with far greater power than competing methods. FILET works by combining information from a number of population genetic summary statistics, including several new statistics that we introduce, that capture patterns of variation across two populations. We show that FILET is able to identify loci that have experienced gene flow between related species with high accuracy, and in most situations can correctly infer which population was the donor and which was the recipient. Here we describe a data set of outbred diploid Drosophila sechellia genomes, and combine them with data from D. simulans to examine recent introgression between these species using FILET. Although we find that these populations may have split more recently than previously appreciated, FILET confirms that there has indeed been appreciable recent introgression (some of which might have been adaptive) between these species, and reveals that this gene flow is primarily in the direction of D. simulans to D. sechellia.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The availability of large-scale population genomic sequence data has resulted in an explosion in efforts to infer the demographic histories of natural populations across a broad range of organisms. ...As demographic events alter coalescent genealogies, they leave detectable signatures in patterns of genetic variation within and between populations. Accordingly, a variety of approaches have been designed to leverage population genetic data to uncover the footprints of demographic change in the genome. The vast majority of these methods make the simplifying assumption that the measures of genetic variation used as their input are unaffected by natural selection. However, natural selection can dramatically skew patterns of variation not only at selected sites, but at linked, neutral loci as well. Here we assess the impact of recent positive selection on demographic inference by characterizing the performance of three popular methods through extensive simulation of data sets with varying numbers of linked selective sweeps. In particular, we examined three different demographic models relevant to a number of species, finding that positive selection can bias parameter estimates of each of these models-often severely. We find that selection can lead to incorrect inferences of population size changes when none have occurred. Moreover, we show that linked selection can lead to incorrect demographic model selection, when multiple demographic scenarios are compared. We argue that natural populations may experience the amount of recent positive selection required to skew inferences. These results suggest that demographic studies conducted in many species to date may have exaggerated the extent and frequency of population size changes.
Identifying selective sweeps in populations that have complex demographic histories remains a difficult problem in population genetics. We previously introduced a supervised machine learning ...approach, S/HIC, for finding both hard and soft selective sweeps in genomes on the basis of patterns of genetic variation surrounding a window of the genome. While S/HIC was shown to be both powerful and precise, the utility of S/HIC was limited by the use of phased genomic data as input. In this report we describe a deep learning variant of our method, diploS/HIC, that uses unphased genotypes to accurately classify genomic windows. diploS/HIC is shown to be quite powerful even at moderate to small sample sizes.
Abstract
Accurately inferring the genome-wide landscape of recombination rates in natural populations is a central aim in genomics, as patterns of linkage influence everything from genetic mapping to ...understanding evolutionary history. Here, we describe recombination landscape estimation using recurrent neural networks (ReLERNN), a deep learning method for estimating a genome-wide recombination map that is accurate even with small numbers of pooled or individually sequenced genomes. Rather than use summaries of linkage disequilibrium as its input, ReLERNN takes columns from a genotype alignment, which are then modeled as a sequence across the genome using a recurrent neural network. We demonstrate that ReLERNN improves accuracy and reduces bias relative to existing methods and maintains high accuracy in the face of demographic model misspecification, missing genotype calls, and genome inaccessibility. We apply ReLERNN to natural populations of African Drosophila melanogaster and show that genome-wide recombination landscapes, although largely correlated among populations, exhibit important population-specific differences. Lastly, we connect the inferred patterns of recombination with the frequencies of major inversions segregating in natural Drosophila populations.
Abstract
Real geography is continuous, but standard models in population genetics are based on discrete, well-mixed populations. As a result, many methods of analyzing genetic data assume that ...samples are a random draw from a well-mixed population, but are applied to clustered samples from populations that are structured clinally over space. Here, we use simulations of populations living in continuous geography to study the impacts of dispersal and sampling strategy on population genetic summary statistics, demographic inference, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We find that most common summary statistics have distributions that differ substantially from those seen in well-mixed populations, especially when Wright’s neighborhood size is < 100 and sampling is spatially clustered. “Stepping-stone” models reproduce some of these effects, but discretizing the landscape introduces artifacts that in some cases are exacerbated at higher resolutions. The combination of low dispersal and clustered sampling causes demographic inference from the site frequency spectrum to infer more turbulent demographic histories, but averaged results across multiple simulations revealed surprisingly little systematic bias. We also show that the combination of spatially autocorrelated environments and limited dispersal causes GWAS to identify spurious signals of genetic association with purely environmentally determined phenotypes, and that this bias is only partially corrected by regressing out principal components of ancestry. Last, we discuss the relevance of our simulation results for inference from genetic variation in real organisms.
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