Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice ...cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.
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IJS, KISLJ, NUK, UL, UM, UPUK
The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point
. Weather stations show that the ...coastal regions are warming
, but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions
are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from AD 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since AD 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.
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IJS, KISLJ, NUK, UL, UM, UPUK
East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance is largely driven by snowfall. Recently, increased snowfall in Queen Maud Land led to years of EAIS mass gain. It is difficult to determine whether these ...years of enhanced snowfall are anomalous or part of a longer‐term trend, reducing our ability to assess the mitigating impact of snowfall on sea level rise. We determine that the recent snowfall increases in western Queen Maud Land (QML) are part of a long‐term trend (+5.2 ± 3.7% decade−1) and are unprecedented over the past two millennia. Warming between 1998 and 2016 is significant and rapid (+1.1 ± 0.7°C decade−1). Using these observations, we determine that the current accumulation and temperature increases in QML from an ensemble of global climate simulations are too low, which suggests that projections of the QML contribution to sea level rise are potentially overestimated with a reduced mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall in a warming world.
Plain Language Summary
Climate model projections suggest that increased snowfall over Antarctica, largely due to atmospheric warming, will partly offset dynamic ice losses by the end of the century. There are very few observations, however, that can be used to differentiate between the varying abilities of the climate models to accurately reproduce Antarctic precipitation and temperature. Here we use a 2,000 year record of snowfall and a 19 year record of air temperature to evaluate whether an ensemble of climate model simulations is able to accurately reproduce the observed change at a site in western Queen Maud Land in East Antarctica, where we find that both snowfall and air temperature are significantly increasing. The rates of increase in both snowfall and temperature within the simulations are too low, which suggests a subdued mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall into the future. Observations, especially ones covering a long time period, are few in number but of critical importance in understanding and interpreting climate model projections over the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Key Points
The recent increase in snow accumulation in western Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica, is unprecedented over the past 2,000 years
An automatic weather station at Kohnen Station indicates rapid annual warming of over 1°C per decade
Temperature and snowfall are increasing faster than climate model projections, suggesting an underestimation of sea level mitigation
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Interior Antarctica is among the most remote places on Earth and was thought to be beyond the reach of human impacts when Amundsen and Scott raced to the South Pole in 1911. Here we show detailed ...measurements from an extensive array of 16 ice cores quantifying substantial toxic heavy metal lead pollution at South Pole and throughout Antarctica by 1889 - beating polar explorers by more than 22 years. Unlike the Arctic where lead pollution peaked in the 1970s, lead pollution in Antarctica was as high in the early 20(th) century as at any time since industrialization. The similar timing and magnitude of changes in lead deposition across Antarctica, as well as the characteristic isotopic signature of Broken Hill lead found throughout the continent, suggest that this single emission source in southern Australia was responsible for the introduction of lead pollution into Antarctica at the end of the 19(th) century and remains a significant source today. An estimated 660 t of industrial lead have been deposited over Antarctica during the past 130 years as a result of mid-latitude industrial emissions, with regional-to-global scale circulation likely modulating aerosol concentrations. Despite abatement efforts, significant lead pollution in Antarctica persists into the 21(st) century.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland ice sheet to ...the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling ('NEEM') ice core and show only a modest ice-sheet response to the strong warming in the early Eemian. We reconstructed the Eemian record from folded ice using globally homogeneous parameters known from dated Greenland and Antarctic ice-core records. On the basis of water stable isotopes, NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000 years ago) peaked at 8 ± 4 degrees Celsius above the mean of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation. Between 128,000 and 122,000 years ago, the thickness of the northwest Greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 ± 250 metres, reaching surface elevations 122,000 years ago of 130 ± 300 metres lower than the present. Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012. With additional warming, surface melt might become more common in the future.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Water stable isotopes in Greenland ice core data provide key paleoclimatic information, and have been compared with precipitation isotopic composition simulated by isotopically enabled atmospheric ...models. However, post-depositional processes linked with snow metamorphism remain poorly documented. For this purpose, monitoring of the isotopic composition (δ18O, δD) of near-surface water vapor, precipitation and samples of the top (0.5 cm) snow surface has been conducted during two summers (2011–2012) at NEEM, NW Greenland. The samples also include a subset of 17O-excess measurements over 4 days, and the measurements span the 2012 Greenland heat wave. Our observations are consistent with calculations assuming isotopic equilibrium between surface snow and water vapor. We observe a strong correlation between near-surface vapor δ18O and air temperature (0.85 ± 0.11‰ °C−1 (R = 0.76) for 2012). The correlation with air temperature is not observed in precipitation data or surface snow data. Deuterium excess (d-excess) is strongly anti-correlated with δ18O with a stronger slope for vapor than for precipitation and snow surface data. During nine 1–5-day periods between precipitation events, our data demonstrate parallel changes of δ18O and d-excess in surface snow and near-surface vapor. The changes in δ18O of the vapor are similar or larger than those of the snow δ18O. It is estimated using the CROCUS snow model that 6 to 20% of the surface snow mass is exchanged with the atmosphere. In our data, the sign of surface snow isotopic changes is not related to the sign or magnitude of sublimation or deposition. Comparisons with atmospheric models show that day-to-day variations in near-surface vapor isotopic composition are driven by synoptic variations and changes in air mass trajectories and distillation histories. We suggest that, in between precipitation events, changes in the surface snow isotopic composition are driven by these changes in near-surface vapor isotopic composition. This is consistent with an estimated 60% mass turnover of surface snow per day driven by snow recrystallization processes under NEEM summer surface snow temperature gradients. Our findings have implications for ice core data interpretation and model–data comparisons, and call for further process studies.
Understanding polar firn densification is crucial for reconstructing the age of greenhouse gas concentrations extracted from ice cores, and for the interpretation of air in ice as a dating tool or as ...a climate proxy. Firn densification is generally modeled as a steady burial and sintering process of defined layers, where the structure of the layering is maintained along the whole firn and ice column. However, available high-resolution density data, as well as firn air samples, question this picture and point to a lack of understanding of firn densification. Based on analysis of high-resolution density and calcium concentration records from Antarctic and Greenland ice cores, we show for the first time that also impurities may have a significant impact on the densification. Analysis of firn cores shows a correlation between density and the calcium ion (Ca++) concentration, and this correlation increases with depth. The existence of this relationship is independent of the local climatic conditions at the core sites analyzed. The strong positive correlation between the density and the logarithm of Ca++ concentration indicates that impurities induce softening and lead to faster densification over a wide range of concentrations. In one core, the impurity effect manifests itself so strongly that the density develops a seasonal cycle closely following the seasonal cycle of Ca++. Our results clearly show that the structure of the firn layering changes with depth and suggest that the increased variability in density observed in deep firn, recently described as a universal feature of polar firn, may arise from the influence of Ca++ and/or other impurities. The impurity effect is likely to have direct implications on our understanding of glacial firn densification and on glacial gas age estimates.
► Ca++ concentration and density correlate with increasing depth. ► Impurity content does alter density variability in polar firn. ► Firn looses memory of surface layering and adapts to varying impurity content. ► In distinct cases seasonality of impurity content is imposed on density signal. ► Impact on interpretation of pore close-off in polar firn under glacial conditions.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Black carbon (BC) and other biomass‐burning (BB) aerosols are critical components of climate forcing, but quantification, predictive climate modeling, and policy decisions have been hampered by ...limited understanding of the climate drivers of BB and by the lack of long‐term records. Prior modeling studies suggested that increased Northern Hemisphere anthropogenic BC emissions increased recent temperatures and regional precipitation, including a northward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Two Antarctic ice cores were analyzed for BC, and the longest record shows that the highest BC deposition during the Holocene occurred ~8–6 k years before present in a period of relatively high austral burning season and low growing season insolation. Atmospheric transport modeling suggests South America (SA) as the dominant source of modern Antarctic BC and, consistent with the ice core record, climate model experiments using mid‐Holocene and preindustrial insolation simulate comparable increases in carbon loss due to fires in SA during the mid‐Holocene. SA climate proxies document a northward shifted ITCZ and weakened SA Summer Monsoon (SASM) during this period, with associated impacts on hydroclimate and burning. A second Antarctic ice core spanning the last 2.5 k years documents similar linkages between hydroclimate and BC, with the lowest deposition during the Little Ice Age characterized by a southerly shifted ITCZ and strengthened SASM. These new results indicate that insolation‐driven changes in SA hydroclimate and BB, likely linked to the position of the ITCZ, modulated Antarctic BC deposition during most of the Holocene and suggests connections and feedbacks between future BC emissions and hydroclimate.
Plain Language Summary
Future anthropogenic‐driven climate change may impact wildfires, yet predictions are hampered by few long‐term records of natural wildfires, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere. We document large variations in black carbon deposition during the past 14,000 years from an Antarctic ice core. Black carbon is a tracer for wildfires and is a significant climate forcing agent. We show that black carbon in Antarctica closely followed Southern Hemisphere hydroclimate and strength of the South American Summer Monsoon. With future predictions showing significant low‐latitude changes in precipitation under increased emissions, the climate‐fire linkages presented here suggest future changes to South American biomass burning.
Key Points
Black carbon in a western Antarctic ice core increased during the mid‐Holocene
Mid‐Holocene model simulations show increased fire‐driven carbon loss and annual fire season length for three regions in South America
Black carbon flux to Antarctica parallels low‐latitude hydroclimate
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Fabric (distribution of crystallographic orientations) along the full NEEM ice core, Greenland was measured in the field by an automatic ice texture analyzer every 10 m, from 33 m down to 2461 m ...depth. The fabric evolves from a slightly anisotropic fabric at the top, toward a strong single maximum at about 2300 m, which is typical of a deformation pattern mostly driven by uniaxial compression and simple shearing. A sharp increase in the fabric strengthening rate is observed at the Holocene to Wisconsin (HW) climatic transition. From a simple model we estimate that this depth is located at a transition from a state dominated by vertical compression to a state dominated by vertical shear. Comparisons are made to two others ice cores drilled along the same ridge; the GRIP ice core, drilled at the summit of the ice sheet, and the NGRIP ice core, drilled 325 km to the NNW of the summit along the ridge, and 365 km upstream from NEEM. This comparison tends to demonstrate that the ice viscosity change with the HW climatic transition must be associated with the shear-dominated state to induce the abrupt fabric strengthening observed at NEEM. This comparison therefore reflects the increasing role of shear deformation on the coring site when moving NW along the ridge from GRIP to NGRIP and NEEM. The difference in fabric profiles between NEEM and NGRIP also evidences a stronger lateral extension associated with a sharper ridge at NGRIP. Further along the core, centimeter scale abrupt texture (fabric and microstructure) variations are observed in the bottom part of the core. Their positions are in good agreement with the observed folding layers in Dahl-Jensen et al. (2013).
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
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