Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk ...factors on this risk.
Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent.
Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.
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Late-life depressive symptoms have been extensively studied for their relationship with incident dementia, but have been typically assessed at a single timepoint. Such an approach neglects the course ...of depression, which, given its remitting and relapsing nature, might provide further insights into the complex association of depression with dementia. We therefore repeatedly measured depressive symptoms in a population of adults over a decade to study the subsequent risk of dementia.
Our study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of adults aged 55 years or older in Rotterdam (Netherlands), ongoing since 1990. The cohort is monitored continuously for major events by data linkage between the study database and general practitioners. We examined a cohort of participants who were free from dementia, but had data for depressive symptoms from at least one examination round in 1993-95, 1997-99, or 2002-04. We assessed depressive symptoms with the validated Dutch version of the Center for Epidemiology Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Depression. We used these data to identify 11-year trajectories of depressive symptoms by latent class trajectory modelling. We screened participants for dementia at each examination round and followed up participants for 10 years for incident dementia by latent trajectory from the third examination round to 2014. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for dementia by assigned trajectory using two Cox proportional hazards models (model 1 adjusted for age and sex only, and model 2 adjusted additionally for APOEɛ4 carrier status, educational level, body-mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, cognitive score, use of antidepressants, and prevalent disease status at baseline). We repeated the analyses censoring for incident stroke, restricting to Alzheimer's disease as an outcome, and accounting for mortality as a competing risk for dementia.
From 1993-2004, we obtained data for depressive symptoms from at least one examination round for 3325 participants (median age: 74·88 years IQR 70·62-80·06, 1995 60% women). We identified five trajectories of depressive symptoms in these 3325 individuals, characterised by maintained low CES-D scores (low; 2441 73%); moderately high starting scores but then remitting (decreasing; 369 11%); low starting scores, increasing, then remitting (remitting; 170 5%); low starting scores that steadily increased (increasing; 255 8%); and maintained high scores (high; 90 3%). During 26 330 person-years, 434 participants developed incident dementia. Only the trajectory with increasing depressive symptoms was associated with a higher risk of dementia compared with the low depressive symptom trajectory, using model 2 (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·05-1·94; p=0·024). Additionally, only the increasing trajectory was associated with a higher risk of dementia compared with the low trajectory after censoring for incident stroke (1·58, 1·15-2·16; p=0·0041), restricting to Alzheimer's disease as an outcome (1·44, 1·03-2·02; p=0·034), and accounting for mortality as a competing risk (1·45, 1·06-1·97; p=0·019).
Risk of dementia differed with different courses of depression, which could not be captured by a single assessment of depressive symptoms. The higher risk of dementia only in the increasing trajectory suggests depression might be a prodrome of dementia.
Erasmus Medical Center; ZonMw; the Netherlands Ministry of Education Culture and Science; and the Netherlands Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports.
Stroke prevention requires effective treatment of its causes. Many etiological factors for stroke have been identified, but the potential gain of effective intervention on these factors in terms of ...numbers of actually prevented strokes remains unclear because of the lack of data from cohort studies. We assessed the impact of currently known potentially modifiable etiological factors on the occurrence of stroke.
This population-based cohort study was based on 6,844 participants of the Rotterdam Study who were aged ≥55 y and free from stroke at baseline (1990-1993). We computed population attributable risks (PARs) for individual risk factors and for risk factors in combination to estimate the proportion of strokes that could theoretically be prevented by the elimination of etiological factors from the population. The mean age at baseline was 69.4 y (standard deviation 6.3 y). During follow-up (mean follow-up 12.9 y, standard deviation 6.3 y), 1,020 strokes occurred. The age- and sex-adjusted combined PAR of prehypertension/hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, coronary disease, and overweight/obesity was 0.51 (95% CI 0.41-0.62) for any stroke; hypertension and smoking were the most important etiological factors. C-reactive protein, fruit and vegetable consumption, and carotid intima-media thickness in combination raised the total PAR by 0.06. The PAR was 0.55 (95% CI 0.41-0.68) for ischemic stroke and 0.70 (95% CI 0.45-0.87) for hemorrhagic stroke. The main limitations of our study are that our study population comprises almost exclusively Caucasians who live in a middle and high income area, and that risk factor awareness is higher in a study cohort than in the general population.
About half of all strokes are attributable to established causal and modifiable factors. This finding encourages not only intervention on established etiological factors, but also further study of less well established factors. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is driven by multifaceted contributions of the immune system. However, the dysregulation of immune cells that leads to ASCVD is poorly understood. We ...determined the association of components of innate and adaptive immunity longitudinally with ASCVD, and assessed whether arterial calcifications play a role in this association.
Granulocyte (innate immunity) and lymphocyte (adaptive immunity) counts were determined 3 times (2002-2008, mean age 65.2 years; 2009-2013, mean age 69.0 years; and 2014-2015, mean age 78.5 years) in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without ASCVD at baseline. Participants were followed-up for ASCVD or death until 1 January 2015. A random sample of 2,366 underwent computed tomography at baseline to quantify arterial calcification volume in 4 vessel beds. We studied the association between immunity components with risk of ASCVD and assessed whether immunity components were related to arterial calcifications at baseline. Of 7,730 participants (59.4% women), 801 developed ASCVD during a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Having an increased granulocyte count increased ASCVD risk (adjusted hazard ratio for doubled granulocyte count 95% CI = 1.78 1.34-2.37, P < 0.001). Higher granulocyte counts were related to larger calcification volumes in all vessels, most prominently in the coronary arteries (mean difference in calcium volume mm3 per SD increase in granulocyte count 95% CI = 32.3 9.9-54.7, P < 0.001). Respectively, the association between granulocyte count and incident coronary heart disease and stroke was partly mediated by coronary artery calcification (overall proportion mediated 95% CI = 19.0% -10% to 32.3%, P = 0.08) and intracranial artery calcification (14.9% -10.9% to 19.1%, P = 0.05). A limitation of our study is that studying the etiology of ASCVD remains difficult within an epidemiological setting due to the limited availability of surrogates for innate and especially adaptive immunity.
In this study, we found that an increased granulocyte count was associated with a higher risk of ASCVD in the general population. Moreover, higher levels of granulocytes were associated with larger volumes of arterial calcification. Arterial calcifications may explain a proportion of the link between granulocytes and ASCVD.
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Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is a common cause of transient cerebral hypoperfusion in the population. Cerebral hypoperfusion is widely implicated in cognitive impairment, but whether OH contributes ...to cognitive decline and dementia is uncertain. We aimed to determine the association between OH and the risk of developing dementia in the general population.
Between 4 October 1989 and 17 June 1993, we assessed OH in non-demented, stroke-free participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study. OH was defined as a ≥20 mm Hg drop in systolic blood pressure (SBP) or ≥10 mm Hg drop in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) within 3 min from postural change. We furthermore calculated within participant variability in SBP related to postural change, expressed as coefficient of variation. Follow-up for dementia was conducted until 1 January 2014. We determined the risk of dementia in relation to OH and SBP variability, using a Cox regression model, adjusted for age; sex; smoking status; alcohol intake; SBP; DBP; cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein ratio; diabetes; body mass index; use of antihypertensive, lipid-lowering, or anticholinergic medication; and apolipoprotein E genotype. Finally, we explored whether associations varied according to compensatory increase in heart rate. Among 6,204 participants (mean ± standard deviation SD age 68.5 ± 8.6 y, 59.7% female) with a median follow-up of 15.3 y, 1,176 developed dementia, of whom 935 (79.5%) had Alzheimer disease and 95 (8.1%) had vascular dementia. OH was associated with an increased risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio aHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.34, p = 0.05), which was similar for Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Similarly, greater SBP variability with postural change was associated with an increased risk of dementia (aHR per SD increase 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16, p = 0.02), which was similar when excluding those who fulfilled the formal criteria for OH (aHR 1.08, 95% CI 1.00-1.17, p = 0.06). The risk of dementia was particularly increased in those with OH who lacked a compensatory increase in heart rate (within lowest quartile of heart rate response: aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04-1.85, p-interaction = 0.05). Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding despite rigorous adjustments, and potentially limited generalisability to populations not of European descent.
In this population predominantly of European descent, OH was associated with an increase in long-term risk of dementia.
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BACKGROUND:Cerebral hypoperfusion has previously been associated with mild cognitive impairment and dementia in various cross-sectional studies, but whether hypoperfusion precedes neurodegeneration ...is unknown. We prospectively determined the association of cerebral perfusion with subsequent cognitive decline and development of dementia.
METHODS:Between 2005 and 2012, we measured cerebral blood flow by 2-dimensional phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without dementia. We determined the association of cerebral perfusion (mL/100mL/min) with risk of dementia (until 2015) using a Cox model, adjusting for age, sex, demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and apolipoprotein E genotype. We repeated analyses for Alzheimer disease and accounting for stroke. We used linear regression to determine change in cognitive performance during 2 consecutive examination rounds in relation to perfusion. Finally, we investigated whether associations were modified by baseline severity of white matter hyperintensities.
RESULTS:Of 4759 participants (median age 61.3 years, 55.2% women) with a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 123 participants developed dementia (97 Alzheimer disease). Lower cerebral perfusion was associated with higher risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval per standard deviation decrease, 1.07–1.61), similar for Alzheimer disease only, and unaltered by accounting for stroke. Risk of dementia with hypoperfusion was higher with increasing severity of white matter hyperintensities (with severe white matter hyperintensities; hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–2.14). At cognitive reexamination after on average 5.7 years, lower baseline perfusion was associated with accelerated decline in cognition (global cognitionβ=−0.029, P=0.003), which was similar after excluding those with incident dementia, and again most profound in individuals with higher volume of white matter hyperintensities (P value for interaction=0.019).
CONCLUSIONS:Cerebral hypoperfusion is associated with accelerated cognitive decline and an increased risk of dementia in the general population.
Apart from blood pressure level itself, variation in blood pressure has been implicated in the development of stroke in subgroups at high cardiovascular risk. We determined the association between ...visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and stroke risk in the general population, taking into account the size and direction of variation and several time intervals prior to stroke diagnosis.
From 1990 to 2016, we included 9,958 stroke-free participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. This is a prospective cohort study including participants aged 45 years and older. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability was calculated as absolute SBP difference divided by mean SBP over 2 sequential visits (median 4.6 years apart). Directional SBP variability was defined as SBP difference over 2 visits divided by mean SBP. Using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, mean SBP, and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke up to January 2016 were estimated per SD increase and in tertiles of variability. We also conducted analyses with 3-, 6-, and 9-year intervals between variability measurement and stroke assessment. These analyses were repeated for diastolic blood pressure (DBP). The mean age of the study population was 67.4 ± 8.2 years and 5,776 (58.0%) were women. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 971 (9.8%) participants had a stroke, including 641 ischemic, 89 hemorrhagic, and 241 unspecified strokes. SBP variability was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR per SD 1.27, 95% CI 1.05-1.54, p = 0.02) and unspecified stroke (HR per SD 1.21, 95% CI 1.09-1.34, p < 0.001). The associations were stronger for all stroke subtypes with longer time intervals; the HR for any stroke was 1.29 (95% CI 1.21-1.36, p < 0.001) at 3 years, 1.47 (95% CI 1.35-1.59, p < 0.001) at 6 years, and 1.38 (95%CI 1.24-1.51, p < 0.001) at 9 years. For DBP variability, we found an association with unspecified stroke risk. Both the rise and fall of SBP and the fall of DBP were associated with an increased risk for unspecified stroke. Limitations of the study include that, due to an average interval of 4 years between visits, our findings may not be generalizable to blood pressure variability over shorter periods.
In this population-based study, we found that visit-to-visit blood pressure variation was associated with an increased risk of unspecified and hemorrhagic stroke, independent of direction of variation or mean blood pressure.
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Imaging plays an essential role in research on neurological diseases in the elderly. The Rotterdam Scan Study was initiated as part of the ongoing Rotterdam Study with the aim to elucidate the causes ...of neurological disease by performing imaging of the brain in a prospective population-based setting. Initially, in 1995 and 1999, random subsamples of participants from the Rotterdam Study underwent neuroimaging, whereas from 2005 onwards MRI has been implemented into the core protocol of the Rotterdam Study. In this paper, we discuss the background and rationale of the Rotterdam Scan Study. Moreover, we describe the imaging protocol, image post-processing techniques, and the main findings to date. Finally, we provide recommendations for future research, which will also be topics of investigation in the Rotterdam Scan Study.
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BFBNIB, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
IMPORTANCE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been suggested as a risk factor for dementia since it may lead to chronic cerebral hypoperfusion and stroke. However, longitudinal studies assessing the ...association between AF and dementia have shown inconsistent results. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of AF on the risk of developing dementia during 20 years of follow-up. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The association of prevalent and incident AF with incident dementia was assessed from July 6, 1989, to February 4, 2010, in 6514 dementia-free participants in the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Data analysis was conducted from September 18, 2014, to April 17, 2015. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors; censored for stroke; and stratified by median age were used. In addition, we investigated whether the association between incident AF and dementia varied according to the duration of exposure, categorized in 6-year time bands. EXPOSURES: Prevalent and incident AF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident dementia, determined according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Third Edition Revised) and the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke–Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. RESULTS: At baseline, 318 of 6514 participants (4.9%) had prevalent AF, and during 81 483 person-years of follow-up, 994 participants (15.3%) developed incident dementia. With findings presented as adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI), prevalent AF was related to an increased risk of dementia (1.33; 1.02-1.73). Among 6196 participants without prevalent AF during 79 003 person-years of follow-up, 723 participants (11.7%) developed incident AF and 932 individuals (15.0%) developed incident dementia. Incident AF was associated with an increased risk of dementia in younger participants (<67 years: 1.81; 1.11-2.94 vs ≥67 years: 1.12; 0.85-1.46; P = .02 for interaction). The risk of dementia was strongly associated with duration of exposure to AF in the younger participants (in the highest stratum: 3.30; 1.16-9.38; P = .003 for trend) but not in the elder participants (0.25; 0.04-1.86; P = .94 for trend). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of dementia, independent of clinical stroke. This association was strongest for younger participants with the longest duration of AF. Future studies should investigate whether optimal treatment of AF can prevent or postpone dementia.
Silent brain infarcts: a systematic review Vermeer, Sarah E, Dr; Longstreth, William T, MD; Koudstaal, Peter J, PhD
Lancet neurology,
07/2007, Volume:
6, Issue:
7
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Summary As the availability and quality of imaging techniques improve, doctors are identifying more patients with no history of transient ischaemic attack or stroke in whom imaging shows brain ...infarcts. Until recently, little was known about the relevance of these lesions. In this systematic review, we give an overview of the frequency, causes, and consequences of MRI-defined silent brain infarcts, which are detected in 20% of healthy elderly people and up to 50% of patients in selected series. Most infarcts are lacunes, of which hypertensive small-vessel disease is thought to be the main cause. Although silent infarcts, by definition, lack clinically overt stroke-like symptoms, they are associated with subtle deficits in physical and cognitive function that commonly go unnoticed. Moreover, the presence of silent infarcts more than doubles the risk of subsequent stroke and dementia. Future studies will have to show whether screening and treating high-risk patients can effectively reduce the risk of further infarcts, stroke, and dementia.
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