Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may ...alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning.
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Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban ...interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland–urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.
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Global chondrichthyan (shark, ray, skate and chimaera) landings, reported to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), peaked in 2003 and in the decade since have declined by almost ...20%. In the FAO's 2012 ‘State of the World's Fisheries and Aquaculture’ report, the authors ‘hoped’ the reductions in landings were partially due to management implementation rather than population decline. Here, we tested their hypothesis. Post‐peak chondrichthyan landings trajectories from 126 countries were modelled against seven indirect and direct fishing pressure measures and eleven measures of fisheries management performance, while accounting for ecosystem attributes. We found the recent improvement in international or national fisheries management was not yet strong enough to account for the recent decline in chondrichthyan landings. Instead, the landings declines were more closely related to fishing pressure and ecosystem attribute measures. Countries with the greatest declines had high human coastal population sizes or high shark and ray meat exports such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. While important progress had been made, country‐level fisheries management measures did not yet have the strength or coverage to halt overfishing and avert population declines of chondrichthyans. Increased implementation of legally binding operational fisheries management and species‐specific reporting is urgently required to avoid declines and ensure fisheries sustainability and food security.
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We provide an empirical, global test of the varying constraints hypothesis, which predicts systematic heterogeneity in the relative importance of biomass resources to burn and atmospheric conditions ...suitable to burning (weather/climate) across a spatial gradient of long-term resource availability. Analyses were based on relationships between monthly global wildfire activity, soil moisture, and mid-tropospheric circulation data from 2001 to 2007, synthesized across a gradient of long-term averages in resources (net primary productivity), annual temperature, and terrestrial biome.
We demonstrate support for the varying constraints hypothesis, showing that, while key biophysical factors must coincide for wildfires to occur, the relative influence of resources to burn and moisture/weather conditions on fire activity shows predictable spatial patterns. In areas where resources are always available for burning during the fire season, such as subtropical/tropical biomes with mid-high annual long-term net primary productivity, fuel moisture conditions exert their strongest constraint on fire activity. In areas where resources are more limiting or variable, such as deserts, xeric shrublands, or grasslands/savannas, fuel moisture has a diminished constraint on wildfire, and metrics indicating availability of burnable fuels produced during the antecedent wet growing seasons reflect a more pronounced constraint on wildfire. This macro-scaled evidence for spatially varying constraints provides a synthesis with studies performed at local and regional scales, enhances our understanding of fire as a global process, and indicates how sensitivity to future changes in temperature and precipitation may differ across the world.
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5.
Climate-change refugia Morelli, Toni Lyn; Barrows, Cameron W; Ramirez, Aaron R ...
Frontiers in ecology and the environment,
06/2020, Volume:
18, Issue:
5
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One ...adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.
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The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth Bowman, David M. J. S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo ...
Journal of biogeography,
December 2011, Volume:
38, Issue:
12
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced ...biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ' natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1 ) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.
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Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate-weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that ...may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.
Fire in the Earth System Bowman, David M.J.S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
04/2009, Volume:
324, Issue:
5926
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation ...distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.
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Plant communities are predicted to be more resistant to invasion if they are highly productive, harbor species with similar functional traits to invaders, or support species with high competitive ...potential. However, the strength of competition may decrease with increasing abiotic stress if species more heavily invest in traits that confer stress tolerance over competitive ability, potentially influencing community trait–resistance relationships. Recent research examining how community traits influence invasion resistance has been predominantly focused on single vegetation types, and results between studies are often conflicting. Few studies have evaluated the extent to which abiotic factors and community traits interact to influence invasion along vegetation gradients. Here, we use an in situ seed addition experiment to examine how above‐ and below‐ground plant traits and vegetation type interact to influence community resistance to invasion by a recently introduced annual grass, Ventenata dubia, along a productivity gradient in eastern Oregon, USA. To measure invasion resistance, we evaluated V. dubia biomass in seeded subplots with varying trait compositions across three vegetation types situated along a productivity gradient: scab‐flats (sparsely vegetated dwarf‐shrublands), low sage‐steppe, and ephemeral wet meadows. Trait–resistance relationships were highly context dependent. In wet meadows (the most productive sites), resistance to invasion increased with increasing resident biomass and as community weighted mean trait values for specific leaf area, fine‐to‐total root volume, and height become more similar to V. dubia's trait values, although these relationships were relatively weak. We did not find evidence that neighboring species influenced invasion resistance in less productive vegetation types, in contrast to our expectations that facilitative interactions may increase with decreasing productivity as posited by the stress‐gradient hypothesis. Unlike V. dubia, which heavily invaded all three vegetation types, introduced species with similar trait values, including Bromus tectorum, were not abundant throughout the study area demonstrating V. dubia's unique ability to take advantage of available resources. Our results illustrate how community traits and site productivity interact to influence community resistance to invasion and highlight that communities with lower overall biomass and few functionally similar species to V. dubia may be at the greatest risk for invasion.
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10.
Fire Refugia MEDDENS, ARJAN J.H.; KOLDEN, CRYSTAL A.; LUTZ, JAMES A. ...
Bioscience,
12/2018, Volume:
68, Issue:
12
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Fire refugia are landscape elements that remain unburned or minimally affected by fire, thereby supporting postfire ecosystem function, biodiversity, and resilience to disturbances. Although fire ...refugia have been studied across continents, scales, and affected taxa, they have not been characterized systematically over space and time, which is crucial for understanding their role in facilitating resilience in the context of global change. We identify four dichotomies that delineate an overarching conceptual framework of fire refugia: unburned versus lower severity, species-specific versus landscape-process characteristics, predictable versus stochastic, and ephemeral versus persistent. We outline the principal concepts underlying the ecological function of fire refugia and describe both the role of fire refugia and uncertainties regarding their persistence under global change. An improved understanding of fire refugia is crucial to conservation given the role that humans play in shaping disturbance regimes across landscapes.
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