Over the last decade, syphilis diagnoses among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) have strongly increased in Europe. Understanding the drivers of the ongoing epidemic may aid to curb transmissions. In ...order to identify the drivers of syphilis transmission in MSM in Switzerland between 2006 and 2017 as well as the effect of potential interventions, we set up an epidemiological model stratified by syphilis stage, HIV-diagnosis, and behavioral factors to account for syphilis infectiousness and risk for transmission. In the main model, we used 'reported non-steady partners' (nsP) as the main proxy for sexual risk. We parameterized the model using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, Swiss Voluntary Counselling and Testing center, cross-sectional surveys among the Swiss MSM population, and published syphilis notifications from the Federal Office of Public Health. The main model reproduced the increase in syphilis diagnoses from 168 cases in 2006 to 418 cases in 2017. It estimated that between 2006 and 2017, MSM with HIV diagnosis had 45.9 times the median syphilis incidence of MSM without HIV diagnosis. Defining risk as condomless anal intercourse with nsP decreased model accuracy (sum of squared weighted residuals, 378.8 vs. 148.3). Counterfactual scenarios suggested that increasing screening of MSM without HIV diagnosis and with nsP from once every two years to twice per year may reduce syphilis incidence (at most 12.8% reduction by 2017). Whereas, increasing screening among MSM with HIV diagnosis and with nsP from once per year to twice per year may substantially reduce syphilis incidence over time (at least 63.5% reduction by 2017). The model suggests that reporting nsP regardless of condom use is suitable for risk stratification when modelling syphilis transmission. More frequent screening of MSM with HIV diagnosis, particularly those with nsP may aid to curb syphilis transmission.
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Rising resistance of HIV-1 to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) threatens the success of the global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The switch to WHO-recommended ...dolutegravir (DTG)-based regimens could reduce this threat due to DTG's high genetic barrier to resistance. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of the scale-up of DTG-based ART on NNRTI pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) in South Africa, 2020 to 2040.
We adapted the Modeling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa (MARISA) model, an epidemiological model of the transmission of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. We modeled the introduction of DTG in 2020 under 2 scenarios: DTG as first-line regimen for ART initiators, or DTG for all patients, including patients on suppressive NNRTI-based ART. Given the safety concerns related to DTG during pregnancy, we assessed the impact of prescribing DTG to all men and in addition to (1) women beyond reproductive age; (2) women beyond reproductive age or using contraception; and (3) all women. The model projections show that, compared to the continuation of NNRTI-based ART, introducing DTG would lead to a reduction in NNRTI PDR in all scenarios if ART initiators are started on a DTG-based regimen, and those on NNRTI-based regimens are rapidly switched to DTG. NNRTI PDR would continue to increase if DTG-based ART was restricted to men. When given to all men and women, DTG-based ART could reduce the level of NNRTI PDR from 52.4% (without DTG) to 10.4% (with universal DTG) in 2040. If only men and women beyond reproductive age or on contraception are started on or switched to DTG-based ART, NNRTI PDR would reach 25.9% in 2040. Limitations include substantial uncertainty due to the long-term predictions and the current scarcity of knowledge about DTG efficacy in South Africa.
Our model shows the potential benefit of scaling up DTG-based regimens for halting the rise of NNRTI resistance. Starting or switching all men and women to DTG would lead to a sustained decline in resistance levels, whereas using DTG-based ART in all men, or in men and women beyond childbearing age, would only slow down the increase in levels of NNRTI PDR.
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Phylogenetic analyses of two or more countries allow to detect differences in transmission dynamics of local HIV-1 epidemics beyond differences in demographic characteristics.
A maximum-likelihood ...phylogenetic tree was built using pol-sequences of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Austrian HIV Cohort Study (AHIVCOS), with international background sequences. Three types of phylogenetic cherries (clusters of size 2) were analyzed further: 1) Domestic cherries, 2) International cherries and 3) SHCS/AHIVCOS-cherries. Transmission group and ethnicities observed within the cherries were compared to the respective distribution expected from a random distribution of patients on the phylogeny.
The demographic characteristics of the AHIVCOS (included patients: 3'141) and the SHCS (included patients: 12'902) are very similar. In the AHIVCOS, 36.5% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.3% in international cherries, and 7.0% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Similarly, in the SHCS, 43.0% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.2% in international cherries, and 1.7% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. While international cherries in the SHCS were dominated by heterosexuals (HET) with MSM being underrepresented, the opposite was the case for the AHIVCOS. In both cohorts, cherries with one patient belonging to the transmission group intravenous drug user (IDU) and the other one non-IDU were underrepresented.
In both cohorts, international HIV transmission plays a major role in the local epidemics, mostly driven by MSM in the AHIVOS, and by HET in the SHCS, highlighting the importance of international collaborations to understand global HIV transmission links on the way to eliminate HIV.
Considering the remaining threat of drug-resistantmutations (DRMs) to antiretroviral treatment (ART) efficacy, we investigated how the selective pressure of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-restricted ...cytotoxic T lymphocytes drives certain DRMs' emergence and retention. We systematically screened DRM:HLA class I allele combinations in 3997 ART-naïve Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) patients. For each pair, a logistic regression model preliminarily tested for an association with the DRM as the outcome. The three HLA:DRM pairs remaining after multiple testing adjustment were analyzed in three ways: cross-sectional logistic regression models to determine any HLA/infection time interaction, survival analyses to examine if HLA type correlated with developing specific DRMs, and via NetMHCpan to find epitope binding evidence of immune escape. Only one pair, RT-E138:HLA-B18, exhibited a significant interaction between infection duration and HLA. The survival analyses predicted two pairs with an increased hazard of developing DRMs: RT-E138:HLA-B18 and RT-V179:HLA-B35. RT-E138:HLA-B18 exhibited the greatest significance in both analyses (interaction term odds ratio OR 1.169 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.075--1.273; p-value<0.001; survival hazard ratio 12.211 95% CI 3.523--42.318; p-value<0.001). The same two pairs were also predicted by netMHCpan to have epitopic binding. We identified DRM:HLA pairs where HLA presence is associated with the presence or emergence of the DRM, indicating that the selective pressure for these mutations alternates direction depending on the presence of these HLA alleles.
The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa substantially reduced AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections. However, its success is threatened by the emergence of resistance to ...non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). The MARISA (Modelling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa) model presented here aims at investigating the time trends and factors driving NNRTI resistance in South Africa. MARISA is a compartmental model that includes the key aspects of the local HIV epidemic: continuum of care, disease progression, and gender. The dynamics of NNRTI resistance emergence and transmission are then added to this framework. Model parameters are informed using data from HIV cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) and literature estimates, or fitted to UNAIDS estimates. Using this novel approach of triangulating clinical and resistance data from various sources, MARISA reproduces the time trends of HIV in South Africa in 2005-2016, with a decrease in new infections, undiagnosed individuals, and AIDS-related deaths. MARISA captures the dynamics of the spread of NNRTI resistance: high levels of acquired drug resistance (ADR, in 83% of first-line treatment failures in 2016), and increasing transmitted drug resistance (TDR, in 8.1% of ART initiators in 2016). Simulation of counter-factual scenarios reflecting alternative public health policies shows that increasing treatment coverage would have resulted in fewer new infections and deaths, at the cost of higher TDR (11.6% in 2016 for doubling the treatment rate). Conversely, improving switching to second-line treatment would have led to lower TDR (6.5% in 2016 for doubling the switching rate) and fewer new infections and deaths. Implementing drug resistance testing would have had little impact. The rapid ART scale-up and inadequate switching to second-line treatment were the key drivers of the spread of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. However, even though some interventions could have substantially reduced the level of NNRTI resistance, no policy including NNRTI-based first line regimens could have prevented this spread. Thus, by combining epidemiological data on HIV in South Africa with biological data on resistance evolution, our modelling approach identified key factors driving NNRTI resistance, highlighting the need of alternative first-line regimens.
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The rapid course of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic calls for fast implementation of clinical trials to assess the effects of new treatment and prophylactic ...interventions. Building trial platforms embedded in existing data infrastructures is an ideal way to address such questions within well-defined subpopulations. We developed a trial platform building on the infrastructure of two established national cohort studies: the Swiss human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Cohort Study (SHCS) and Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS). In a pilot trial, termed Corona VaccinE tRiAL pLatform (COVERALL), we assessed the vaccine efficacy of the first two licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in Switzerland and the functionality of the trial platform. Using Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap), we developed a trial platform integrating the infrastructure of the SHCS and STCS. An algorithm identifying eligible patients, as well as baseline data transfer ensured a fast inclusion procedure for eligible patients. We implemented convenient re-directions between the different data entry systems to ensure intuitive data entry for the participating study personnel. The trial platform, including a randomization algorithm ensuring balance among different subgroups, was continuously adapted to changing guidelines concerning vaccination policies. We were able to randomize and vaccinate the first trial participant the same day we received ethics approval. Time to enroll and randomize our target sample size of 380 patients was 22 days. Taking the best of each system, we were able to flag eligible patients, transfer patient information automatically, randomize and enroll the patients in an easy workflow, decreasing the administrative burden usually associated with a trial of this size.
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Antimicrobial stewardship programs promote the appropriate use of antimicrobial substances through the implementation of evidence-based, active and passive interventions. We analyzed the effect of a ...computer-assisted intervention on antimicrobial use in a tertiary care hospital.
Between 2011 and 2016 we introduced an electronic alert for patients being prescribed meropenem, voriconazole and caspofungin. At prescription and at day 3 of treatment, physicians were informed about the risk related to these antimicrobial substances by an electronic alert in the medical records. Physicians were invited to revoke or confirm the prescription and to contact the infectious disease (ID) team. Using interrupted time series regression, the days of therapy (DOTs) and the number of prescriptions before and after the intervention were compared.
We counted 64,281 DOTs for 5549 prescriptions during 4100 hospital stays. Overall, the DOTs decreased continuously over time. An additional benefit of the alert could not be observed. Similarly, the number of prescriptions decreased over time, without significant effect of the intervention. When considering the three drugs separately, the alert impacted the duration (change in slope of DOTs/1000 bed days; P = 0.0017) as well as the number of prescriptions (change in slope of prescriptions/1000 bed days; P < 0.001) of voriconazole only.
The introduction of the alert lowered prescriptions of voriconazole only. Thus, self-stewardship alone seems to have a limited impact on electronic prescriptions of anti-infective substances. Additional measures such as face-to-face prompting with ID physicians or audit and feedback are indispensable to optimize antimicrobial use.
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Approximately 28% of the human population have been exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), with the overwhelming majority of infected individuals not developing disease (latent TB infection ...(LTBI)). While it is known that uncontrolled HIV infection is a major risk factor for the development of TB, the effect of underlying LTBI on HIV disease progression is less well characterized, in part because longitudinal data are lacking. We sorted all participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with at least 1 documented MTB test into one of the 3 groups: MTB uninfected, LTBI, or active TB. To detect differences in the HIV set point viral load (SPVL), linear regression was used; the frequency of the most common opportunistic infections (OIs) in the SHCS between MTB uninfected patients, patients with LTBI, and patients with active TB were compared using logistic regression and time-to-event analyses. In adjusted models, we corrected for baseline demographic characteristics, i.e., HIV transmission risk group and gender, geographic region, year of HIV diagnosis, and CD4 nadir. A total of 13,943 SHCS patients had at least 1 MTB test documented, of whom 840 (6.0%) had LTBI and 770 (5.5%) developed active TB. Compared to MTB uninfected patients, LTBI was associated with a 0.24 decreased log HIV SPVL in the adjusted model (p < 0.0001). Patients with LTBI had lower odds of having candida stomatitis (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.68, p = 0.0035) and oral hairy leukoplakia (adjusted OR = 0.67, p = 0.033) when compared to MTB uninfected patients. The association of LTBI with a reduced HIV set point virus load and fewer unrelated infections in HIV/TB coinfected patients suggests a more complex interaction between LTBI and HIV than previously assumed.
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Hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP) is divided in two distinct groups, ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and non-ventilator-associated HAP (nvHAP). Although nvHAP occurs more frequently than VAP ...and results in similar mortality and costs, prevention guidelines and prevention focus almost exclusively on VAP. Scientific evidence about nvHAP prevention and its implementation is scarce. Therefore, we designed a mixed-methods hybrid type 2 effectiveness-implementation study to investigate both the effectiveness and implementation of a newly developed nvHAP prevention bundle.
This single-centre project at the 950-bed University Hospital Zurich (UHZ) will engage the wards of nine departments with substantial nvHAP rates. The nvHAP bundle consists of five primary prevention measures: 1) oral care, 2) prevention of dysphagia-related aspiration, 3) mobilization, 4) stopping unnecessary proton pump inhibitors, and, 5) respiratory therapy. Implementation includes the engagement of department-level implementation teams, who sustain the 'core' intervention components of education, training, and environmental restructuring and tailor the implementation strategy to local needs. Both effectiveness and implementation outcomes will be assessed using mixed-methods. As a primary outcome, nvHAP incidence rates will be analysed by Poisson regression models to compare incidence rates before, during, and after the implementation phases (on the hospital and department level). Additionally, the association between process indicators and nvHAP incidence rates will be analysed using longitudinal Poisson regression models. A longitudinal, qualitative study and formative evaluation based on interviews, focus groups, and observations identifies supporting or hindering factors for implementation success in participating departments dynamically over time. This accumulating implementation experience will be constantly fed back to the implementation teams and thus, represents an active implementation element.
This comprehensive hybrid mixed-methods study is designed to both, measure the effectiveness of a new nvHAP prevention bundle and multifaceted implementation strategy, while also providing insights into how and why it worked or failed. The results of this study may contribute substantially to advancing knowledge and patient safety in the area of a rediscovered healthcare-associated infection - nvHAP.
ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT03361085 . Registered December 2017.
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