BACKGROUND.The vast majority of patients with cirrhosis have low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease–Sodium (MELD-Na) scores; however, the ability for the MELD-Na score to predict patient outcomes at ...low scores is unclear.
METHODS.Adult patients in a multicenter, Chicago-wide database of medical records with International Classification of Disease, Ninth Edition codes of cirrhosis and without a history of hepatocellular carcinoma were included. Records were linked with the state death registry, and death certificates were manually reviewed. Deaths were classified as “liver-related,” “non-liver-related,” and “non-descript” as adjudicated by a panel comprised of a transplant surgeon, a hepatologist, and an internist. A sensitivity analysis was performed where patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were included.
RESULTS.Among 7922 identified patients, 3999 patients had MELD-Na scores that were never higher than 15. In total, 2137 (27%) patients died during the study period with higher mortality rates for the patients in the high MELD-Na group (19.4 (41.6%) versus 4.1 (12.6%) per 100 person-y, P < 0.001). The high MELD-Na group died of a liver-related cause in 1142 out of 1632 (70%) as compared to 240 out of 505 (47.5%) deaths in the low MELD-Na group. There was no difference in the distribution of subcategory of liver-related death between low and high MELD-Na groups. Among subclassification of liver-related deaths, the most common cause of death was “Infectious” in both groups.
CONCLUSIONS.Despite persistently low MELD-Na scores, patients with cirrhosis still experience high rates of liver-related mortality.
Electronic health records (EHR) data provides the researcher and physician with the opportunity to improve risk prediction by employing newer, more sophisticated modeling techniques. Rather than ...treating the impact of predictor variables on health trajectories as static, we explore the use of time-dependent variables in dynamically modeling time-to-event data through the use of landmarking (LM) data sets. We compare several different dynamic models presented in the literature that utilize LM data sets as the basis of their approach. These techniques include using pseudo-means, pseudo-survival probabilities, and the traditional Cox model. The models are primarily compared with their static counterparts using appropriate measures of model discrimination and calibration based on what summary measure is employed for the response variable.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Liver cirrhosis is a leading cause of death and effects millions of people in the United States. Early mortality prediction among patients with cirrhosis might give healthcare providers more ...opportunity to effectively treat the condition. We hypothesized that laboratory test results and other related diagnoses would be associated with mortality in this population. Our another assumption was that a deep learning model could outperform the current Model for End Stage Liver disease (MELD) score in predicting mortality.
We utilized electronic health record data from 34,575 patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis from a large medical center to study associations with mortality. Three time-windows of mortality (365 days, 180 days and 90 days) and two cases with different number of variables (all 41 available variables and 4 variables in MELD-NA) were studied. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation for continuous variables and mode for categorical variables. Deep learning and machine learning algorithms, i.e., deep neural networks (DNN), random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) were employed to study the associations between baseline features such as laboratory measurements and diagnoses for each time window by 5-fold cross validation method. Metrics such as area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate models.
Performance of models comprising all variables outperformed those with 4 MELD-NA variables for all prediction cases and the DNN model outperformed the LR and RF models. For example, the DNN model achieved an AUC of 0.88, 0.86, and 0.85 for 90, 180, and 365-day mortality respectively as compared to the MELD score, which resulted in corresponding AUCs of 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76 for the same instances. The DNN and LR models had a significantly better f1 score compared to MELD at all time points examined.
Other variables such as alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, and hemoglobin were also top informative features besides the 4 MELD-Na variables. Machine learning and deep learning models outperformed the current standard of risk prediction among patients with cirrhosis. Advanced informatics techniques showed promise for risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background and Aims
Radioembolization (yttrium‐90 Y90) is used in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as a bridging as well as downstaging liver‐directed therapy to curative liver transplantation (LT). In ...this study, we report long‐term outcomes of LT for patients with HCC who were bridged/downstaged by Y90.
Approach and Results
Patients undergoing LT following Y90 between 2004 and 2018 were included, with staging by United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) tumor‐node‐metastasis criteria at baseline pre‐Y90 and pre‐LT. Post‐Y90 toxicities were recorded. Histopathological data of HCC at explant were recorded. Long‐term outcomes, including overall survival (OS), recurrence‐free survival (RFS), disease‐specific mortality (DSM), and time‐to‐recurrence, were reported. Time‐to‐endpoint analyses were estimated using Kaplan–Meier. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a log‐rank test and Cox proportional‐hazards model, respectively. During the 15‐year period, 207 patients underwent LT after Y90. OS from LT was 12.5 years, with a median time to LT of 7.5 months interquartile range, 4.4‐10.3. A total of 169 patients were bridged, whereas 38 were downstaged to LT. Respectively, 94 (45%), 60 (29%), and 53 (26%) patients showed complete, extensive, and partial tumor necrosis on histopathology. Three‐year, 5‐year, and 10‐year OS rates were 84%, 77%, and 60%, respectively. Twenty‐four patients developed recurrence, with a median RFS of 120 (95% confidence interval, 69‐150) months. DSM at 3, 5, and 10 years was 6%, 11%, and 16%, respectively. There were no differences in OS/RFS for patients who were bridged or downstaged. RFS was higher in patients with complete/extensive versus partial tumor necrosis (P < 0.0001). For patients with UNOS T2 treated during the study period, 5.2% dropped out because of disease progression.
Conclusions
Y90 is an effective treatment for HCC in the setting of bridging/downstaging to LT. Patients who achieved extensive or complete necrosis had better RFS, supporting the practice of neoadjuvant treatment before LT.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
To date, studies evaluating the association between frailty and mortality in patients with cirrhosis have been limited to assessments of frailty at a single time point. We aimed to evaluate changes ...in frailty over time and their association with death/delisting in patients too sick for liver transplantation.
Adults with cirrhosis, listed for liver transplantation at 8 US centers, underwent ambulatory longitudinal frailty testing using the liver frailty index (LFI). We used multilevel linear mixed-effects regression to model and predict changes in LFI (ΔLFI) per 3 months, based on age, gender, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-Na, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy, categorizing patients by frailty trajectories. Competing risk regression evaluated the subhazard ratio (sHR) of baseline LFI and predicted ΔLFI on death/delisting, with transplantation as the competing risk.
We analyzed 2,851 visits from 1,093 outpatients with cirrhosis. Patients with severe worsening of frailty had worse baseline LFI and were more likely to have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, diabetes, or dialysis-dependence. After a median follow-up of 11 months, 223 (20%) of the overall cohort died/were delisted because of sickness. The cumulative incidence of death/delisting increased by worsening ΔLFI group. In competing risk regression adjusted for baseline LFI, age, height, MELD-Na, and albumin, a 0.1 unit change in ΔLFI per 3 months was associated with a 2.04-fold increased risk of death/delisting (95% CI 1.35–3.09).
Worsening frailty was significantly associated with death/delisting independent of baseline frailty and MELD-Na. Notably, patients who experienced improvements in frailty had a lower risk of death/delisting. Our data support the longitudinal measurement of frailty, using the LFI, in patients with cirrhosis and lay the foundation for interventional work aimed at reversing frailty.
Frailty, as measured at a single time point, is predictive of death in patients with cirrhosis, but whether changes in frailty over time are associated with death is unknown. In a study of over 1,000 patients with cirrhosis who underwent frailty testing, we demonstrate that worsening frailty is strongly linked with mortality, regardless of baseline frailty and liver disease severity. Notably, patients who experienced improvements in frailty over time had a lower risk of death/delisting. Our data support the longitudinal measurement of frailty in patients with cirrhosis and lay the foundation for interventional work aimed at reversing frailty.
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•In patients with cirrhosis, changes in frailty were significantly associated with death/delisting.•Patients with cirrhosis who experienced improvements in frailty over time had a lower risk of death/delisting.•Our data support the longitudinal measurement of frailty in patients with cirrhosis.•This study lays the foundation for interventional work aimed at reversing frailty.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
We sought to evaluate the prevalence of medication understanding and non‐adherence of entire drug regimens among kidney transplantation (KT) recipients and to examine associations of these exposures ...with clinical outcomes. Structured, in‐person interviews were conducted with 99 adult KT recipients between 2011 and 2012 at two transplant centers in Chicago, IL; and Atlanta, GA. Nearly, one‐quarter (24%) of participants had limited literacy as measured by the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine test; patients took a mean of 10 (SD=4) medications and 32% had a medication change within the last month. On average, patients knew what 91% of their medications were for (self‐report) and demonstrated proper dosing (via observed demonstration) for 83% of medications. Overall, 35% were non‐adherent based on either self‐report or tacrolimus level. In multivariable analyses, fewer months since transplant and limited literacy were associated with non‐adherence (all P<.05). Patients with minority race, a higher number of medications, and mild cognitive impairment had significantly lower treatment knowledge scores. Non‐white race and lower income were associated with higher rates of hospitalization within a year following the interview. The identification of factors that predispose KT recipients to medication misunderstanding, non‐adherence, and hospitalization could help target appropriate self‐care interventions.
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DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease that is known as a "silent killer" and its true prevalence is difficult to describe. It is imperative to accurately characterize the prevalence of cirrhosis ...because of its increasing healthcare burden.
In this retrospective cohort study, trends in cirrhosis prevalence were evaluated using administrative data from one of the largest national health insurance providers in the US. (2011-2018). Enrolled adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis defined by ICD-9 and ICD-10 were included in the study. The primary outcome measured in the study was the prevalence of cirrhosis 2011-2018.
Among the 371,482 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 62.2 (±13.7) years; 53.3% had commercial insurance and 46.4% had Medicare Advantage. The most frequent cirrhosis etiologies were alcohol-related (26.0%), NASH (20.9%) and HCV (20.0%). Mean time of follow-up was 725 (±732.3) days. The observed cirrhosis prevalence was 0.71% in 2018, a 2-fold increase from 2012 (0.34%). The highest prevalence observed was among patients with Medicare Advantage insurance (1.67%) in 2018. Prevalence increased in each US. state, with Southern states having the most rapid rise (2.3-fold). The most significant increases were observed in patients with NASH (3.9-fold) and alcohol-related (2-fold) cirrhosis.
Between 2012-2018, the prevalence of liver cirrhosis doubled among insured patients. Alcohol-related and NASH cirrhosis were the most significant contributors to this increase. Patients living in the South, and those insured by Medicare Advantage also have disproportionately higher prevalence of cirrhosis. Public health interventions are important to mitigate this concerning trajectory of strain to the health system.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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