Anthropogenic disturbances can constrain the realized niche space of wildlife by inducing avoidance behaviors and altering community dynamics. Human activity might contribute to reduced partitioning ...of niche space by carnivores that consume similar resources, both by promoting tolerant species while also altering behavior of species (e.g. activity patterns). We investigated the influence of anthropogenic disturbance on habitat and dietary niche breadth and overlap among competing carnivores, and explored if altered resource partitioning could be explained by human‐induced activity shifts. To describe the diets of coyotes, bobcat, and gray foxes, we designed a citizen science program to collect carnivore scat samples in low‐ (‘wildland’) and high‐ (‘interface’) human‐use open space preserves, and obtained diet estimates using a DNA metabarcoding approach. Habitat use was determined at scat locations. We found that coyotes expanded habitat and dietary niche breadth in interface preserves, whereas bobcats and foxes narrowed both niche breadth measures. High human use was related to increased dietary niche overlap among all mesocarnivore pairs, increased coyote habitat overlap with bobcats and foxes, and a small reduction in habitat overlap between bobcats and foxes. The strongest increase in diet overlap was among coyotes and foxes, which was smaller in magnitude than their habitat overlap increase. Finally, coyote scats were more likely to contain nocturnal prey in interface preserves, whereas foxes appeared to reduce consumption of nocturnal prey. Our results suggest that dominant and generalist mesocarnivores may encroach on the niche space of subordinate mesocarnivores in areas with high human activity, and that patterns in resource use may be related to human‐induced activity shifts.
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Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia, and the number of reported cases has increased in many regions as landscapes have been ...altered. Although there has been extensive work on the ecology and epidemiology of this disease in both Europe and North America, substantial uncertainty exists about fundamental aspects that determine spatial and temporal variation in both disease risk and human incidence, which hamper effective and efficient prevention and control. Here we describe areas of consensus that can be built on, identify areas of uncertainty and outline research needed to fill these gaps to facilitate predictive models of disease risk and the development of novel disease control strategies. Key areas of uncertainty include: (i) the precise influence of deer abundance on tick abundance, (ii) how tick populations are regulated, (iii) assembly of host communities and tick-feeding patterns across different habitats, (iv) reservoir competence of host species, and (v) pathogenicity for humans of different genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi. Filling these knowledge gaps will improve Lyme disease prevention and control and provide general insights into the drivers and dynamics of this emblematic multi-host–vector-borne zoonotic disease.
This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.
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Global biodiversity loss is a critical environmental crisis, yet the lack of spatial data on biodiversity threats has hindered conservation strategies. Theory predicts that abrupt biodiversity ...declines are most likely to occur when habitat availability is reduced to very low levels in the landscape (10-30%). Alternatively, recent evidence indicates that biodiversity is best conserved by minimizing human intrusion into intact and relatively unfragmented landscapes. Here we use recently available forest loss data to test deforestation effects on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories of extinction risk for 19,432 vertebrate species worldwide. As expected, deforestation substantially increased the odds of a species being listed as threatened, undergoing recent upgrading to a higher threat category and exhibiting declining populations. More importantly, we show that these risks were disproportionately high in relatively intact landscapes; even minimal deforestation has had severe consequences for vertebrate biodiversity. We found little support for the alternative hypothesis that forest loss is most detrimental in already fragmented landscapes. Spatial analysis revealed high-risk hot spots in Borneo, the central Amazon and the Congo Basin. In these regions, our model predicts that 121-219 species will become threatened under current rates of forest loss over the next 30 years. Given that only 17.9% of these high-risk areas are formally protected and only 8.9% have strict protection, new large-scale conservation efforts to protect intact forests are necessary to slow deforestation rates and to avert a new wave of global extinctions.
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Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key “early ...warning signs” about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37‐year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate‐driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age‐structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70‐year time window (2015–2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., “thermoneutral”) summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%–86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate‐linked bottom‐up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence.
Mountain goat survival is greatest when winter snowfall is low and summer temperatures are cool. General circulation models predict future declines in winter snowfall but increases in summer temperature in coastal Alaska. Demographic modeling examining 10 different “best case” to “worst case” climate change scenarios indicate negative trajectories in all cases suggesting the negative effects of increasing summer temperature is more important than positive effects of declining winter snowfall. Resource Selection Function modeling predicted future contraction of summer habitat suggesting that behavioral adaptation (i.e., shifting to higher elevations) is unlikely to fully compensate for temperature increases in current summer ranges.
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Society values landscapes that reliably provide many ecosystem functions. As the study of ecosystem functioning expands to include more locations, time spans, and functions, the functional importance ...of individual species is becoming more apparent. However, the functional importance of individual species does not necessarily translate to the functional importance of biodiversity measured in whole communities of interacting species. Furthermore, ecological diversity at scales larger than neighborhood species richness could also influence the provision of multiple functions over extended time scales. We created experimental landscapes based on whole communities from the world’s longest running biodiversity-functioning field experiment to investigate how local species richness (α diversity), distinctness among communities (β diversity), and larger scale species richness (γ diversity) affected eight ecosystem functions over 10 y. Using both threshold-based and unique multifunctionality metrics, we found that α diversity had strong positive effects on most individual functions and multifunctionality, and that positive effects of β and γ diversity emerged only when multiple functions were considered simultaneously. Higher β diversity also reduced the variability in multifunctionality. Thus, in addition to conserving important species, maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality will require diverse landscape mosaics of diverse communities.
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Changes to the community ecology of hosts for zoonotic pathogens, particularly rodents, are likely to influence the emergence and prevalence of zoonotic diseases worldwide. However, the complex ...interactions between abiotic factors, pathogens, vectors, hosts, and both food resources and predators of hosts are difficult to disentangle. Here we (1) use 19 yr of data from six large field plots in southeastern New York to compare the effects of hypothesized drivers of interannual variation in Lyme disease risk, including the abundance of acorns, rodents, and deer, as well as a series of climate variables; and (2) employ landscape epidemiology to explore how variation in predator community structure and forest cover influences spatial variation in the infection prevalence of ticks for the Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, and two other important tick-borne pathogens, Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti. Acorn-driven increases in the abundance of mice were correlated with a lagged increase in the abundance of questing nymph-stage Ixodes scapularis ticks infected with Lyme disease bacteria. Abundance of white-tailed deer 2 yr prior also correlated with increased density of infected nymphal ticks, although the effect was weak. Density of rodents in the current year was a strong negative predictor of nymph density, apparently because high current abundance of these hosts can remove nymphs from the host-seeking population. Warm, dry spring or winter weather was associated with reduced density of infected nymphs. At the landscape scale, the presence of functionally diverse predator communities or of bobcats, the only obligate carnivore, was associated with reduced infection prevalence of I. scapularis nymphs with all three zoonotic pathogens. In the case of Lyme disease, infection prevalence increased where coyotes were present but smaller predators were displaced or otherwise absent. For all pathogens, infection prevalence was lowest when forest cover within a 1 km radius was high. Taken together, our results suggest that a food web perspective including bottom-up and top-down forcing is needed to understand drivers of tick-borne disease risk, a result that may also apply to other rodent-borne zoonoses. Prevention of exposure based on ecological indicators of heightened risk should help protect public health.
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Deer, predators, and the emergence of Lyme disease Levi, Taal; Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Mangel, Marc ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
07/2012, Volume:
109, Issue:
27
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, and both the annual incidence and geographic range are increasing. The emergence of Lyme disease has been attributed to a ...century-long recovery of deer, an important reproductive host for adult ticks. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that Lyme disease risk may now be more dynamically linked to fluctuations in the abundance of small-mammal hosts that are thought to infect the majority of ticks. The continuing and rapid increase in Lyme disease over the past two decades, long after the recolonization of deer, suggests that other factors, including changes in the ecology of small-mammal hosts may be responsible for the continuing emergence of Lyme disease. We present a theoretical model that illustrates how reductions in small-mammal predators can sharply increase Lyme disease risk. We then show that increases in Lyme disease in the northeastern and midwestern United States over the past three decades are frequently uncorrelated with deer abundance and instead coincide with a range-wide decline of a key small-mammal predator, the red fox, likely due to expansion of coyote populations. Further, across four states we find poor spatial correlation between deer abundance and Lyme disease incidence, but coyote abundance and fox rarity effectively predict the spatial distribution of Lyme disease in New York. These results suggest that changes in predator communities may have cascading impacts that facilitate the emergence of zoonotic diseases, the vast majority of which rely on hosts that occupy low trophic levels.
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Understanding how a pathogen can grow on different substrates and how this growth impacts its dispersal are critical to understanding the risks and control of emerging infectious diseases. ...Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) causes white-nose syndrome (WNS) in many bat species and can persist in, and transmit from, the environment. We experimentally evaluated Pd growth on common substrates to better understand mechanisms of pathogen persistence, transmission and viability. We inoculated autoclaved guano, fresh guano, soil, and wood with live Pd fungus and evaluated (1) whether Pd grows or persists on each (2) if spores of the fungus remain viable 4 months after inoculation on each substrate, and (3) whether detection and quantitation of Pd on swabs is sensitive to the choice to two commonly used DNA extraction kits. After inoculating each substrate with 460,000 Pd spores, we collected ~ 0.20 g of guano and soil, and swabs from wood every 16 days for 64 days to quantify pathogen load through time using real-time qPCR. We detected Pd on all substrates over the course of the experiment. We observed a tenfold increase in pathogen loads on autoclaved guano and persistence but not growth in fresh guano. Pathogen loads increased marginally on wood but declined ~ 60-fold in soil. After four months, apparently viable spores were harvested from all substrates but germination did not occur from fresh guano. We additionally found that detection and quantitation of Pd from swabs of wood surfaces is sensitive to the DNA extraction method. The commonly used PrepMan Ultra Reagent protocol yielded substantially less DNA than did the QIAGEN DNeasy Blood and Tissue Kit. Notably the PrepMan Ultra Reagent failed to detect Pd in many wood swabs that were detected by QIAGEN and were subsequently found to contain substantial live conidia. Our results indicate that Pd can persist or even grow on common environmental substrates with results dependent on whether microbial competitors have been eliminated. Although we observed clear rapid declines in Pd on soil, viable spores were harvested four months after inoculation. These results suggest that environmental substrates and guano can in general serve as infectious environmental reservoirs due to long-term persistence, and even growth, of live Pd. This should inform management interventions to sanitize or modify structures to reduce transmission risk as well early detection rapid response (EDRR) planning.
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Tropical forests are the global cornerstone of biological diversity, and store 55% of the forest carbon stock globally, yet sustained provisioning of these forest ecosystem services may be threatened ...by hunting-induced extinctions of plant–animal mutualisms that maintain long-term forest dynamics. Large-bodied Atelinae primates and tapirs in particular offer nonredundant seed-dispersal services for many large-seeded Neotropical tree species, which on average have higher wood density than smaller-seeded and wind-dispersed trees. We used field data and models to project the spatial impact of hunting on large primates by ∼1 million rural households throughout the Brazilian Amazon. We then used a unique baseline dataset on 2,345 1-ha tree plots arrayed across the Brazilian Amazon to model changes in aboveground forest biomass under different scenarios of hunting-induced large-bodied frugivore extirpation. We project that defaunation of the most harvest-sensitive species will lead to losses in aboveground biomass of between 2.5–5.8% on average, with some losses as high as 26.5–37.8%. These findings highlight an urgent need to manage the sustainability of game hunting in both protected and unprotected tropical forests, and place full biodiversity integrity, including populations of large frugivorous vertebrates, firmly in the agenda of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) programs.
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