This comment raises concerns regarding the way in which a new European directive, aimed at reaching higher renewable energy targets, treats wood harvested directly for bioenergy use as a carbon-free ...fuel. The result could consume quantities of wood equal to all Europe's wood harvests, greatly increase carbon in the air for decades, and set a dangerous global example.
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation ...models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.
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Biomass trade results in a growing spatial disconnect between environmental impacts due to biomass production and the places where biomass is being consumed. The pressure on ecosystems resulting from ...the production of traded biomass, however, is highly variable between regions and products. We use the concept of embodied human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) to map the spatial disconnect between net-producing and net-consuming regions. Embodied HANPP comprises total biomass withdrawals and land use induced changes in productivity resulting from the provision of biomass products. International net transfers of embodied HANPP are of global significance, amounting to 1.7 PgC/year. Sparsely populated regions are mainly net producers, densely populated regions net consumers, independent of development status. Biomass consumption and trade are expected to surge over the next decades, suggesting a need to sustainably manage supply and demand of products of ecosystems on a global level.
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Anthropogenic global change compromises forest resilience, with profound impacts to ecosystem functions and services. This synthesis paper reflects on the current understanding of forest resilience ...and potential tipping points under environmental change and explores challenges to assessing responses using experiments, observations and models. Forests are changing over a wide range of spatio‐temporal scales, but it is often unclear whether these changes reduce resilience or represent a tipping point. Tipping points may arise from interactions across scales, as processes such as climate change, land‐use change, invasive species or deforestation gradually erode resilience and increase vulnerability to extreme events. Studies covering interactions across different spatio‐temporal scales are needed to further our understanding. Combinations of experiments, observations and process‐based models could improve our ability to project forest resilience and tipping points under global change. We discuss uncertainties in changing CO₂concentration and quantifying tree mortality as examples. Synthesis. As forests change at various scales, it is increasingly important to understand whether and how such changes lead to reduced resilience and potential tipping points. Understanding the mechanisms underlying forest resilience and tipping points would help in assessing risks to ecosystems and presents opportunities for ecosystem restoration and sustainable forest management.
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Pyrogenic carbon capture and storage Schmidt, Hans‐Peter; Anca‐Couce, Andrés; Hagemann, Nikolas ...
Global change biology. Bioenergy,
April 2019, Volume:
11, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Open access
The growth of biomass is considered the most efficient method currently available to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, biomass carbon is easily degraded by microorganisms releasing ...it in the form of greenhouse gases back to the atmosphere. If biomass is pyrolyzed, the organic carbon is converted into solid (biochar), liquid (bio‐oil), and gaseous (permanent pyrogas) carbonaceous products. During the last decade, biochar has been discussed as a promising option to improve soil fertility and sequester carbon, although the carbon efficiency of the thermal conversion of biomass into biochar is in the range of 30%–50% only. So far, the liquid and gaseous pyrolysis products were mainly considered for combustion, though they can equally be processed into recalcitrant forms suitable for carbon sequestration. In this review, we show that pyrolytic carbon capture and storage (PyCCS) can aspire for carbon sequestration efficiencies of >70%, which is shown to be an important threshold to allow PyCCS to become a relevant negative emission technology. Prolonged residence times of pyrogenic carbon can be generated (a) within the terrestrial biosphere including the agricultural use of biochar; (b) within advanced bio‐based materials as long as they are not oxidized (biochar, bio‐oil); and (c) within suitable geological deposits (bio‐oil and CO2 from permanent pyrogas oxidation). While pathway (c) would need major carbon taxes or similar governmental incentives to become a realistic option, pathways (a) and (b) create added economic value and could at least partly be implemented without other financial incentives. Pyrolysis technology is already well established, biochar sequestration and bio‐oil sequestration in soils, respectively biomaterials, do not present ecological hazards, and global scale‐up appears feasible within a time frame of 10–30 years. Thus, PyCCS could evolve into a decisive tool for global carbon governance, serving climate change mitigation and the sustainable development goals simultaneously.
While increasing the terrestrial biomass is the most promising method to withdraw CO2 from the atmosphere, the long‐term storage of biogenic carbon plays a preponderant role for climate change mitigation. Biomass pyrolysis could convert sustainably produced biomass into solid (biochar), liquid (bio‐oil), and gaseous carbonaceous products, which allow long‐term storage in soils, biomaterials, and geological deposits. We review this new concept, now termed pyrolytic carbon capture and storage (PyCCS), which is expected to evolve into a decisive tool for future agriculture (biochar) and bio‐economy (biochar, bio‐oil, biofuels) serving climate change mitigation and the sustainable development goals simultaneously.
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Climate warming affects permafrost soil carbon pools in two opposing ways: enhanced vegetation growth leads to higher carbon inputs to the soil, whereas permafrost melting accelerates decomposition ...and hence carbon release. Here, we study the spatial and temporal dynamics of these two processes under scenarios of climate change and evaluate their influence on the carbon balance of the permafrost zone. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, which simulates plant physiological and ecological processes and includes a newly developed discrete layer energy balance permafrost module and a vertical carbon distribution within the soil layer. The model is able to reproduce the interactions between vegetation and soil carbon dynamics as well as to simulate dynamic permafrost changes resulting from changes in the climate. We find that vegetation responds more rapidly to warming of the permafrost zone than soil carbon pools due to long time lags in permafrost thawing, and that the initial simulated net uptake of carbon may continue for some decades of warming. However, once the turning point is reached, if carbon release exceeds uptake, carbon is lost irreversibly from the system and cannot be compensated for by increasing vegetation carbon input. Our analysis highlights the importance of including dynamic vegetation and long-term responses into analyses of permafrost zone carbon budgets.
Human land use and anthropogenic climate change (CC) are placing mounting pressure on natural ecosystems worldwide, with impacts on biodiversity, water resources, nutrient and carbon cycles. Here, we ...present a quantitative macro-scale comparative analysis of the separate and joint dual impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and CC on the terrestrial biosphere during the last ca. 300 years, based on simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model and an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical, hydrological and vegetation-structural shifts. We find that by the beginning of the 21st century LULCC and CC have jointly caused major shifts on more than 90% of all areas now cultivated, corresponding to 26% of the land area. CC has exposed another 26% of natural ecosystems to moderate or major shifts. Within three centuries, the impact of LULCC on landscapes has increased 13-fold. Within just one century, CC effects have caught up with LULCC effects.
A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 content, land use and irrigation to worldwide trends ...in 20th century river discharge (Q). Consistently with observations, Q decreased in parts of Africa, central/southern Asia and south‐eastern Europe, and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology, total global Q rose over 1901–2002 (trend, 30.8 km3 a−2, equaling 7.7%), due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect, +24.7 km3 a−2). Global warming (−3.1), rising CO2 (+4.4), land cover changes (+5.9) and irrigation (−1.1) also had discernible effects. However, sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic, we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle.
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Earth's vegetation plays a pivotal role in the global water balance. Hence, there is a need to model dynamic interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the water cycle. Here, ...the hydrological performance of the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model (LPJ), a prominent dynamic global vegetation model, is evaluated. Models of this type simulate the coupled terrestrial carbon and water cycle, thus they are well suited for investigating biosphere–hydrosphere interactions over large domains. We demonstrate that runoff and evapotranspiration computed by LPJ agree well with respective results from state-of-the-art global hydrological models, while in some regions, runoff is significantly over- or underestimated compared to observations. The direction and magnitude of these biases is largely similar to those from other macro-scale models, rather than specific to LPJ. They are attributable primarily to uncertainties in the climate input data, and to human interventions not considered by the model (e.g. water withdrawal, land cover conversions). Additional model development is required to perform integrated assessments of water exchanges among the biosphere, the hydrosphere, and the anthroposphere. Yet, the LPJ model can now be used to study inter-relations between the world's major vegetation types and the terrestrial water balance. As an example, it is shown that a doubling of atmospheric CO
2 content alone would result in pronounced changes in evapotranspiration and runoff for many parts of the world. Although significant, these changes would remain unseen by stand-alone hydrological models, thereby emphasizing the importance of simulating the coupled carbon and water cycle.
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Climate change effects on seasonal activity in terrestrial ecosystems are significant and well documented, especially in the middle and higher latitudes. Temperature is a main driver of many plant ...developmental processes, and in many cases higher temperatures have been shown to speed up plant development and lead to earlier switching to the next ontogenetic stage. Qualitatively consistent advancement of vegetation activity in spring has been documented using three independent methods, based on ground observations, remote sensing, and analysis of the atmospheric CO2 signal. However, estimates of the trends for advancement obtained using the same method differ substantially. We propose that a high fraction of this uncertainty is related to the time frame analysed and changes in trends at decadal time scales. Furthermore, the correlation between estimates of the initiation of spring activity derived from ground observations and remote sensing at interannual time scales is often weak. We propose that this is caused by qualitative differences in the traits observed using the two methods, as well as the mixture of different ecosystems and species within the satellite scenes.
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