From 2007 to 2013, the globally averaged mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere increased by 5.7 ± 1.2 ppb yr−1. Simultaneously, δ13CCH4 (a measure of the 13C/12C isotope ratio in methane) has ...shifted to significantly more negative values since 2007. Growth was extreme in 2014, at 12.5 ± 0.4 ppb, with a further shift to more negative values being observed at most latitudes. The isotopic evidence presented here suggests that the methane rise was dominated by significant increases in biogenic methane emissions, particularly in the tropics, for example, from expansion of tropical wetlands in years with strongly positive rainfall anomalies or emissions from increased agricultural sources such as ruminants and rice paddies. Changes in the removal rate of methane by the OH radical have not been seen in other tracers of atmospheric chemistry and do not appear to explain short‐term variations in methane. Fossil fuel emissions may also have grown, but the sustained shift to more 13C‐depleted values and its significant interannual variability, and the tropical and Southern Hemisphere loci of post‐2007 growth, both indicate that fossil fuel emissions have not been the dominant factor driving the increase. A major cause of increased tropical wetland and tropical agricultural methane emissions, the likely major contributors to growth, may be their responses to meteorological change.
Plain Language Summary
Atmospheric methane, which is a powerful greenhouse gas, is increasing rapidly. In the 20th century, methane growth was primarily driven by emissions from fossil fuel sources, such as the natural gas industry and coal mining. Then, in the early years of the 21st century, came a period of stability in methane. However, since 2007, growth has resumed, with especially strong growth in 2014. Evidence from carbon isotopes implies that the primary cause of the new growth is an increase in biogenic emissions, probably from wetlands and also agricultural sources, such as rice fields and cattle. The evidence presented in this research study, from a wide range of measurement sites both in the northern and southern hemispheres, suggests increased tropical emissions, for example from tropical wetlands, may be a principal cause of the global rise in methane. Contributions to the growth may also come from agricultural sources and perhaps some fossil fuel emissions also.
Key Points
Atmospheric methane is growing rapidly
Isotopic evidence implies that the growth is driven by biogenic sources
Growth is dominated by tropical sources
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The ...increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.
Plain Language Summary
The rise in atmospheric methane (CH4), which began in 2007, accelerated in the past 4 years. The growth has been worldwide, especially in the tropics and northern midlatitudes. With the rise has come a shift in the carbon isotope ratio of the methane. The causes of the rise are not fully understood, and may include increased emissions and perhaps a decline in the destruction of methane in the air. Methane's increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement, and if the increase continues at the same rates it may become very difficult to meet the Paris goals. There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel industry.
Key Points
Atmospheric methane is rising; its carbon isotopic ratio has become more depleted in C‐13
The possible causes of the change include an increase in emissions, with changing relative proportions of source inputs, or a decline in methane destruction, or both
If this rise continues, there are significant consequences for the UN Paris Agreement
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
We present the first results from the Mapping Obscuration to Reionization with ALMA (MORA) survey, the largest Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) blank-field contiguous ...survey to date (184 arcmin
2
) and the only at 2 mm to search for dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). We use the 13 sources detected above 5
σ
to estimate the first ALMA galaxy number counts at this wavelength. These number counts are then combined with the state-of-the-art galaxy number counts at 1.2 and 3 mm and with a backward evolution model to place constraints on the evolution of the IR luminosity function and dust-obscured star formation in the past 13 billion years. Our results suggest a steep redshift evolution on the space density of DSFGs and confirm the flattening of the IR luminosity function at faint luminosities, with a slope of
. We conclude that the dust-obscured component, which peaks at
z
≈ 2–2.5, has dominated the cosmic history of star formation for the past ∼12 billion years, back to
z
∼ 4. At
z
= 5, the dust-obscured star formation is estimated to be ∼35% of the total star formation rate density and decreases to 25%–20% at
z
= 6–7, implying a minor contribution of dust-enshrouded star formation in the first billion years of the universe. With the dust-obscured star formation history constrained up to the end of the epoch of reionization, our results provide a benchmark to test galaxy formation models, to study the galaxy mass assembly history, and to understand the dust and metal enrichment of the universe at early times.
We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ in Europe for the years 2001-2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO₂ mole fraction ...observations (~70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net exchange, while fossil fuel and fire emissions are prescribed. Weekly terrestrial sources and sinks are optimized (i.e., a flux inversion) for a set of 18 large ecosystems across Europe in which prescribed climate, weather, and surface characteristics introduce finer scale gradients. We find that the terrestrial biosphere in Europe absorbed a net average of -165 Tg C yr⁻¹ over the period considered. This uptake is predominantly in non-EU countries, and is found in the northern coniferous (-94 Tg C yr⁻¹) and mixed forests (-30 Tg C yr⁻¹) as well as the forest/field complexes of eastern Europe (-85 Tg C yr⁻¹). An optimistic uncertainty estimate derived using three biosphere models suggests the uptake to be in a range of -122 to -258 Tg C yr⁻¹, while a more conservative estimate derived from the a-posteriori covariance estimates is -165±437 Tg C yr⁻¹. Note, however, that uncertainties are hard to estimate given the nature of the system and are likely to be significantly larger than this. Interannual variability in NEE includes a reduction in uptake due to the 2003 drought followed by 3 years of more than average uptake. The largest anomaly of NEE occurred in 2005 concurrent with increased seasonal cycles of observed CO₂. We speculate these changes to result from the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in 2005 that lead to favorable summer growth conditions, and altered horizontal and vertical mixing in the atmosphere. All our results are available through http://www.carbontracker.eu
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons
. The atmospheric concentration of ...trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s
. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased
. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown
. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.
•Floc size and shape can be quantified using microtomography across multiple scales.•Higher levels of floc complexity and irregularity can be quantified in 3D.•2D porosity measurements may be ...over-estimated for natural sediment flocs.•Multi-modal floc size distribution may be an artefact of 2D simplification of floc shape.•Mass of flocculated material may be over-estimated by two orders of magnitude.
Natural sediment flocs are fragile and highly heterogeneous aggregates of biogenic and minerogenic material typically with high porosity and low density. In aquatic environments dominated by fine, cohesive or mixed sediments they can dominate suspended sediment flux. Consequently, monitoring and modelling the behaviour, transport and distribution of flocs is very important for many aquatic industries, maintenance of waterways and conservation and management of aquatic waterbodies. Mathematical models that predict the behaviour of flocs rely on the accurate assessments of the size, shape, density, porosity and fractal dimension of flocs. These inherently 3-dimensional (3D) characteristics are typically derived from 2-dimensional (2D) data, largely due to the challenges associated with sampling, capturing, imaging and quantifying these fragile aggregates. We have developed new volumetric microscopy techniques which can quantify 3D internal and external structures and characteristics of sediment flocs. Here, these techniques were applied to quantify the 3D size (volume), shape and fractal dimension of natural and artificial sediment flocs and compare them to standard 2D approaches. Our study demonstrates that 2D approaches are under-estimating shape complexity and over-estimating the size and mass settling flux of flocs by up to two orders of magnitude, and the discrepancy between 2D and 3D is most marked for natural, organic rich macroflocs. Our study has significant implications for estimations of sediment flux at local to global scales within in aquatic environments. These new data and approaches offer the potential to improve the current parameterisation of sediment transport models and to improve the accuracy of current field-monitoring techniques.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
We analyze low-frequency vibrational modes in a two-dimensional, zero-temperature, quasistatically sheared model glass to identify a population of structural "soft spots" where particle ...rearrangements are initiated. The population of spots evolves slowly compared to the interval between particle rearrangements, and the soft spots are structurally different from the rest of the system. Our results suggest that disordered solids flow via localized rearrangements that tend to occur at soft spots, which are analogous to dislocations in crystalline solids.
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CMK, CTK, FMFMET, IJS, NUK, PNG, UM
One of the biggest challenges for conservation biology is to provide conservation planners with ways to prioritize effort. Much attention has been focused on biodiversity hotspots. However, the ...conservation of evolutionary process is now also acknowledged as a priority in the face of global change. Phylogenetic diversity (PD) is a biodiversity index that measures the length of evolutionary pathways that connect a given set of taxa. PD therefore identifies sets of taxa that maximize the accumulation of 'feature diversity'. Recent studies, however, concluded that taxon richness is a good surrogate for PD. Here we show taxon richness to be decoupled from PD, using a biome-wide phylogenetic analysis of the flora of an undisputed biodiversity hotspot-the Cape of South Africa. We demonstrate that this decoupling has real-world importance for conservation planning. Finally, using a database of medicinal and economic plant use, we demonstrate that PD protection is the best strategy for preserving feature diversity in the Cape. We should be able to use PD to identify those key regions that maximize future options, both for the continuing evolution of life on Earth and for the benefit of society.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Flocculated suspended sediments (flocs) are found in a variety of environments globally, and their transport and behavior bear substantial importance to several industries including fisheries, ...aquaculture, and shipping. Additionally, the modelling of their behavior is important for estuarine and coastal flood prediction and defence, and the process of flocculation occurs in other unrelated industries such as paper and chemical production. Floc porosity is conventionally assessed using inferential indirect or proxy data approaches. These methods underestimate floc porosity % by c. 30% and cannot measure the micro-scale complexity of these pore spaces and networks, rendering inputs to models sub-optimal. This study introduces a novel 3D porosity and pore space quantification protocol, that produces directly quantified porosity % and pore space data.•3D floc data from micro-CT scanning is segmented volumetrically•This segmented volume is quantified to extract porosity and several pore space parameters from the floc structure
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Aims/hypothesis
The aim of this study was to investigate whether small doses of intense exercise before each main meal (‘exercise snacks’) would result in better blood glucose control than a single ...bout of prolonged, continuous, moderate-intensity exercise in individuals with insulin resistance.
Methods
Nine individuals completed three exercise interventions in randomised order. Measures were recorded across 3 days with exercise performed on the middle day, as either: (1) traditional continuous exercise (CONT), comprising 30 min moderate-intensity (60% of maximal heart rate HR
max
) incline walking before dinner; (2) exercise snacking (ES), consisting of 6 × 1 min intense (90% HR
max
) incline walking intervals 30 min before each meal; or (3) composite exercise snacking (CES), encompassing 6 × 1 min intervals alternating between walking and resistance-based exercise, 30 min before meals. Meal timing and composition were controlled within participants for exercise interventions.
Results
ES attenuated mean 3 h postprandial glucose concentration following breakfast (by 1.4 ± 1.5 mmol/l,
p
= 0.02) but not lunch (0.4 ± 1.0 mmol/l,
p
= 0.22), and was more effective than CONT following dinner (0.7 ± 1.5 mmol/l below CONT;
p
= 0.04). ES also reduced 24 h mean glucose concentration by 0.7 ± 0.6 mmol/l (
p
= 0.01) and this reduction persisted for the subsequent 24 h (lower by 0.6 ± 0.4 mmol/l vs CONT, relative to their baselines;
p
= 0.01). CES was just as effective as ES (
p
> 0.05 for all glycaemic variables) at improving glycaemic control.
Conclusions/interpretation
Dosing exercise as brief, intense ‘exercise snacks’ before main meals is a time-efficient and effective approach to improve glycaemic control in individuals with insulin resistance.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
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