We argue that one major cause of the U.S. post-war baby boom was the rise in female labour supply during World War II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous ...fertility and female labour force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labour supply and fertility in the decades following the war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labour brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labour supply that persists after the war. As a result, younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labour market competition, which impels them to exit the labour market and start having children earlier. The effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt. In our calibrated model, the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust.
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BFBNIB, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
We present improved black hole masses for 35 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) based on a complete and consistent reanalysis of broad emission-line reverberation-mapping data. From objects with multiple ...line measurements, we find that the highest precision measure of the virial product c tau Delta V super(2)/G, where tau is the emission-line lag relative to continuum variations and Delta V is the emission-line width, is obtained by using the cross-correlation function centroid (as opposed to the cross-correlation function peak) for the time delay and the line dispersion (as opposed to FWHM) for the line width and by measuring the line width in the variable part of the spectrum. Accurate line-width measurement depends critically on avoiding contaminating features, in particular the narrow components of the emission lines. We find that the precision (or random component of the error) of reverberation-based black hole mass measurements is typically around 30%, comparable to the precision attained in measurement of black hole masses in quiescent galaxies by gas or stellar dynamical methods. Based on results presented in a companion paper by Onken et al., we provide a zero-point calibration for the reverberation-based black hole mass scale by using the relationship between black hole mass and host-galaxy bulge velocity dispersion. The scatter around this relationship implies that the typical systematic uncertainties in reverberation-based black hole masses are smaller than a factor of 3. We present a preliminary version of a mass-luminosity relationship that is much better defined than any previous attempt. Scatter about the mass-luminosity relationship for these AGNs appears to be real and could be correlated with either Eddington ratio or object inclination.
The Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) rate, when compared to the cosmic star formation history (SFH), can be used to derive the delay-time distribution (DTD; the hypothetical SN Ia rate versus time following ...a brief burst of star formation) of SNe Ia, which can distinguish among progenitor models. We present the results of a supernova (SN) survey in the Subaru Deep Field (SDF). Over a period of 3 years, we have observed the SDF on four independent epochs with Suprime-Cam on the Subaru 8.2-m telescope, with two nights of exposure per epoch, in the R, i′and z′ bands. We have discovered 150 SNe out to redshift z≈ 2. Using 11 photometric bands from the observer-frame far-ultraviolet to the near-infrared, we derive photometric redshifts for the SN host galaxies (for 24 we also have spectroscopic redshifts). This information is combined with the SN photometry to determine the type and redshift distribution of the SN sample. Our final sample includes 28 SNe Ia in the range 1.0 < z < 1.5 and 10 in the range 1.5 < z < 2.0. As our survey is largely insensitive to core-collapse SNe (CC SNe) at z > 1, most of the events found in this range are likely SNe Ia. Our SN Ia rate measurements are consistent with those derived from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS) sample, but the overall uncertainty of our 1.5 < z < 2.0 measurement is a factor of 2 smaller, of 35-50 per cent. Based on this sample, we find that the SN Ia rate evolution levels off at 1.0 < z < 2.0, but shows no sign of declining. Combining our SN Ia rate measurements and those from the literature, and comparing to a wide range of possible SFHs, the best-fitting DTD (with a reduced χ2= 0.7) is a power law of the form Ψ(t) ∝t
β, with index β=−1.1 ± 0.1 (statistical) ±0.17 (systematic). This result is consistent with other recent DTD measurements at various redshifts and environments, and is in agreement with a generic prediction of the double-degenerate progenitor scenario for SNe Ia. Most single-degenerate models predict different DTDs. By combining the contribution from CC SNe, based on the wide range of SFHs, with that from SNe Ia, calculated with the best-fitting DTD, we predict that the mean present-day cosmic iron abundance is in the range Z
Fe= (0.09-0.37) ZFe, ⊙. We further predict that the high-z SN searches now beginning with HST will discover 2-11 SNe Ia at z > 2.
As the
Kepler
mission has done for hot exoplanets, the ESA
Euclid
and NASA
Roman
missions have the potential to create a breakthrough in our understanding of the demographics of cool exoplanets, ...including unbound, or free-floating, planets (FFPs).
Roman
will dedicate part of its core survey program to the detection of cool exoplanets via microlensing, while
Euclid
may undertake a microlensing program as an ancillary science goal. In this study, we demonstrate the complementarity of the two missions and propose two joint surveys to better constrain the mass and distance of microlensing events. We first demonstrate that an early brief
Euclid
survey (~7 h) of the
Roman
microlensing fields will allow the measurement of at least 30% of the events’ relative proper motions
µ
rel
and 42% of the lens magnitudes. This survey would place strong constraints on the mass and distance on thousands of microlensing events observed by
Roman
just after the first year of observation. Then, we study the potential of simultaneous observations by
Roman
and
Euclid
to enable the measurement of the microlensing parallax for the shortest microlensing events and, ultimately, obtain a direct measurement of the masses, distances, and transverse motions of FFPs. Using detailed simulations of the joint detection yield we show that within one year
Roman-Euclid
observations will be at least an order of magnitude more sensitive than current ground-based measurements. The recent tentative detection of an excess of short-duration events by the OGLE survey is consistent with a scenario of up to ten Earth-mass FFPs per Galactic star. For such a scenario a joint
Roman-Euclid
campaign should detect around 130 FFP events within a year, including 110 with measured parallax that strongly constrain the FFP mass, and around 30 FFP events with direct mass and distance measurements. The ability of the joint survey to completely break the microlens mass-distance-velocity degeneracy for a significant subset of events provides a unique opportunity to verify unambiguously the FFP hypothesis or else place abundance limits for FFPs between Earth and Jupiter masses that are up to two orders of magnitude stronger than provided by ground-based surveys. Finally, we study the capabilities of the joint survey to enhance the detection and characterization of exomoons, and find that it could lead to the detection of the first exomoon.
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FMFMET, NUK, UL, UM, UPUK
We present the supernova (SN) sample and Type-Ia SN (SN Ia) rates from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). Using the Advanced Camera for Surveys and the Wide Field Camera 3 ...on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), we have imaged 25 galaxy-cluster fields and parallel fields of non-cluster galaxies. We report a sample of 27 SNe discovered in the parallel fields. Of these SNe, ~13 are classified as SN Ia candidates, including four SN Ia candidates at redshifts z > 1.2. The results are consistent with the rates measured by the HST/GOODS and Subaru Deep Field SN surveys. We model these results together with previous measurements at z < 1 from the literature. We also test DTD models produced by an assortment of published binary population synthesis (BPS) simulations. The shapes of all BPS double-degenerate DTDs are consistent with the volumetric SN Ia measurements, when the DTD models are scaled up by factors of 3-9.
We present a statistical analysis of the first four seasons from a second-generation microlensing survey for extrasolar planets, consisting of near-continuous time coverage of 8 deg to the 2nd power ...of the Galactic bulge by the Optical Gravitational Lens Experiment (OGLE), Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA), and Wise microlensing surveys. During this period, 224 microlensing events were observed by all three groups. Over 12% of the events showed a deviation from single-lens microlensing, and for approx. 1/3 of those the anomaly is likely caused by a planetary companion. For each of the 224 events, we have performed numerical ray-tracing simulations to calculate the detection efficiency of possible companions as a function of companion-to-host mass ratio and separation. Accounting for the detection efficiency, we find that 55 +34 -22%of microlensed stars host a snowline planet. Moreover, we find that Neptune-mass planets are approx.10 times more common than Jupiter-mass planets. The companion-to-host mass-ratio distribution shows a deficit at q approx. 10 (exp -2), separating the distribution into two companion populations, analogous to the stellar-companion and planet populations, seen in radial-velocity surveys around solar-like stars. Our survey, however, which probes mainly lower mass stars, suggests a minimum in the distribution in the super-Jupiter mass range, and a relatively high occurrence of brown-dwarf companions.
Abstract
The first transiting planetesimal orbiting a white dwarf was recently detected in K2 data of WD 1145+017 and has been followed up intensively. The multiple, long and variable transits ...suggest the transiting objects are dust clouds, probably produced by a disintegrating asteroid. In addition, the system contains circumstellar gas, evident by broad absorption lines, mostly in the u
΄ band, and a dust disc, indicated by an infrared excess. Here we present the first detection of a change in colour of WD 1145+017 during transits, using simultaneous multiband fast-photometry ULTRACAM measurements over the u
΄
g
΄
r
΄
i
΄ bands. The observations reveal what appears to be ‘bluing' during transits; transits are deeper in the redder bands, with a u
΄ − r
΄ colour difference of up to ∼−0.05 mag. We explore various possible explanations for the bluing, including limb darkening or peculiar dust properties. ‘Spectral' photometry obtained by integrating over bandpasses in the spectroscopic data in and out of transit, compared to the photometric data, shows that the observed colour difference is most likely the result of reduced circumstellar absorption in the spectrum during transits. This indicates that the transiting objects and the gas share the same line of sight and that the gas covers the white dwarf only partially, as would be expected if the gas, the transiting debris and the dust emitting the infrared excess are part of the same general disc structure (although possibly at different radii). In addition, we present the results of a week-long monitoring campaign of the system using a global network of telescopes.
The time-variable electromagnetic sky has been well-explored at a wide range of wavelengths. In contrast, the ultra-violet (UV) variable sky is relatively poorly explored, even though it offers ...exciting scientific prospects. Here, we review the potential scientific impact of a wide-field UV survey on the study of explosive and other transient events, as well as known classes of variable objects, such as active galactic nuclei and variable stars. We quantify our predictions using a fiducial set of observational parameters which are similar to those envisaged for the proposed ULTRASATmission. We show that such a mission would be able to revolutionize our knowledge about massive star explosions by measuring the early UV emission from hundreds of events, revealing key physical parameters of the exploding progenitor stars. Such a mission would also detect the UV emission from many tens of tidal-disruption events of stars by supermassive black holes at galactic nuclei and enable a measurement of the rate of such events. The overlap of such a wide-field UV mission with existing and planned gravitational-wave and high-energy neutrino telescopes makes it especially timely.
To review the distribution, current trends, and resistance patterns of bacterial keratitis isolates in Toronto over the last 11 years.
Retrospective, observational, case series.
Microbiology records ...of suspected bacterial keratitis cases that underwent a diagnostic corneal scraping and cultures from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2010, were reviewed.
Culture results and antibiotic sensitivity profiles were reviewed and analyzed.
Distribution of the main isolated pathogens as well as in vitro laboratory minimum inhibitory concentration testing results to identify resistance patterns.
A total of 1701 consecutive corneal scrapings were taken during the 11 years of the study. A pathogen was recovered in 977 samples (57.4%), with bacterial keratitis accounting for 897 of the positive cultures (91.8%). The total number of Gram-positive and Gram-negative isolates was 684 and 213, respectively. We identified a decreasing trend in Gram-positive isolates (P = 0.016). The most common isolate overall was coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CNS) and the most common Gram-negative bacteria isolated was Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was present in 1.3% of the S aureus isolates, whereas methicillin-resistant CNS (MRCNS) was present in 43.1% of the CNS isolates. There was a trend toward increasing laboratory resistance to methicillin from 28% during the first 4 years of the study to 38.8% for the last 3 years (P = 0.133). When analyzing the sensitivities of MRSA and MRCNS isolates to other antibiotics, there was resistance to cefazolin and sensitivity to vancomycin in all isolates, whereas resistance to other antibiotics was variable.
There was a significant decrease in the percentage of Gram-positive microorganisms over time. The sensitivity of Gram-negative isolates to tested antimicrobials was >97% response for all the reported antibiotics; this was not the case for Gram-positive isolates, in which resistance to the antibiotics was more common. Methicillin-resistant organisms accounted for 29.1% of all Gram-positive cultures in our series, suggesting that the empiric use of vancomycin in the setting of severe suspected bacterial keratitis may be justified.
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