Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is ...expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Studies of the effects of cross-habitat resource subsidies have been a feature of food web ecology over the past decade. To date, most studies have focused on demonstrating the magnitude of a subsidy ...or documenting its effect in the recipient habitat. Ecologists have yet to develop a satisfactory framework for predicting the magnitude of these effects. We used 115 data sets from 32 studies to compare consumer responses to resource subsidies across recipient habitat type, trophic level, and functional group. Changes in consumer density or biomass in response to subsidies were inconsistent across habitats, trophic, and functional groups. Responses in stream cobble bar and coastline habitats were larger than in other habitats. Contrary to expectation, the magnitude of consumer response was not affected by recipient habitat productivity or the ratio of productivity between donor and recipient habitats. However, consumer response was significantly related to the ratio of subsidy resources to equivalent resources in the recipient habitat. Broad contrasts in productivity are modified by subsidy type, vector, and the physical and biotic characteristics of both donor and recipient habitats. For this reason, the ratio of subsidy to equivalent resources is a more useful tool for predicting the possible effect of a subsidy than coarser contrasts of in situ productivity. The commonness of subsidy effects suggests that many ecosystems need to be studied as open systems.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Cross-boundary flows of energy and nutrients link biodiversity and functioning in adjacent ecosystems. The composition of forest tree species can affect the structure and functioning of stream ...ecosystems due to physical and chemical attributes, as well as changes in terrestrial resource subsidies. We examined how variation in riparian canopy composition (coniferous, deciduous, mixed) affects adjacent trophic levels (invertebrate and microbial consumers) and decomposition of organic matter in small, coastal rainforest streams in southwestern British Columbia. Breakdown rates of higher-quality red alder (
Alnus rubra
) litter were faster in streams with a greater percentage of deciduous than coniferous riparian canopy, whereas breakdown rates of lower-quality western hemlock (
Tsuga heterophylla
) litter were independent of riparian forest composition. When invertebrates were excluded using fine mesh, breakdown rates of both litter species were an order of magnitude less and were not significantly affected by riparian forest composition. Stream invertebrate and microbial communities were similar among riparian forest composition, with most variation attributed to leaf litter species. Invertebrate taxa richness and shredder biomass were higher in
A. rubra
litter; however, taxa evenness was greatest for
T. heterophylla
litter and both litter species in coniferous streams. Microbial community diversity (determined from terminal restriction fragment length polymorphisms) was unaffected by riparian forest or litter species. Fungal allele richness was higher than bacterial allele richness, and microbial communities associated with lower-quality
T. heterophylla
litter had higher diversity (allele uniqueness and richness) than those associated with higher-quality
A. rubra
litter. Percent variation in breakdown rates was mostly attributed to riparian forest composition in the presence of invertebrates and microbes; however, stream consumer biodiversity at adjacent trophic levels did not explain these patterns. Riparian and stream ecosystems and their biotic communities are linked through exchange and decomposition of detrital resources, and we provide evidence that riparian forest composition affects stream ecosystem catabolism despite similarities in microbial and invertebrate communities.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Characterizing the potential health effects of exposure to risk factors such as red meat consumption is essential to inform health policy and practice. Previous meta-analyses evaluating the effects ...of red meat intake have generated mixed findings and do not formally assess evidence strength. Here, we conducted a systematic review and implemented a meta-regression-relaxing conventional log-linearity assumptions and incorporating between-study heterogeneity-to evaluate the relationships between unprocessed red meat consumption and six potential health outcomes. We found weak evidence of association between unprocessed red meat consumption and colorectal cancer, breast cancer, type 2 diabetes and ischemic heart disease. Moreover, we found no evidence of an association between unprocessed red meat and ischemic stroke or hemorrhagic stroke. We also found that while risk for the six outcomes in our analysis combined was minimized at 0 g unprocessed red meat intake per day, the 95% uncertainty interval that incorporated between-study heterogeneity was very wide: from 0-200 g d
. While there is some evidence that eating unprocessed red meat is associated with increased risk of disease incidence and mortality, it is weak and insufficient to make stronger or more conclusive recommendations. More rigorous, well-powered research is needed to better understand and quantify the relationship between consumption of unprocessed red meat and chronic disease.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Over the past few decades, social and economic changes have had substantial effects on health and wellbeing in Russia. We aimed to use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk ...Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to evaluate trends in mortality, causes of death, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and associated risk factors in Russia from 1980 to 2016.
We estimated all-cause mortality by use of a multistage modelling process that synthesised data from vital registration systems, surveys, and censuses. A composite measure of health loss due to both fatal and non-fatal disease burden (DALYs) was calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs for each age, sex, year, and location. Health progress was evaluated in comparison with patterns of change in similar countries by use of the Socio-demographic Index that was developed for GBD 2016.
Following rapid decreases in life expectancy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, life expectancy at birth in Russia improved between 2006 and 2016. The all-cause mortality rate decreased by 16·6% (95% uncertainty interval 9·4–33·8) between 1980 and 2016. This overall decrease encompasses the cycles of sharp increases and plateaus in mortality that occurred before 2005. Child mortality decreased by 57·5% (53·5–61·1) between 2000 and 2016. However, compared with countries at similar Socio-demographic Index levels, rates of mortality and disability in Russia remain high and life expectancy is low. Russian men have a disproportionate burden of disease relative to women. In 2016, 59·2% (55·3–62·6) of mortality in men aged 15–49 years and 46·8% (44·5–49·5) of mortality in women were attributable to behavioural risk factors, including alcohol use, drug use, and smoking.
Trends in mortality in Russia from 1980 to 2016 might be related to complicated patterns of behavioural risk factors associated with economic and social change, to shifts in disease burden, and to changes in the capacity of and access to health care. Ongoing mortality and disability from causes and risks amenable to health-care interventions and behaviour modifications present opportunities to continue to improve the wellbeing of Russian citizens.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
1. Aquatic insects emerging from streams can provide an important energy subsidy to recipient consumers such as riparian web-building spiders. This subsidy has been hypothesized to be of little ...importance where the primary productivity of the recipient habitat exceeds that of the donor habitat. 2. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated emerging stream insect abundance in a productive riparian rainforest in a replicated design using greenhouse-type exclosures, contrasted with unmanipulated stream reaches (four exclosures on two streams). 3. Experimental exclosures resulted in a 62·9% decrease in aquatic insect abundance in exclusion reaches compared with control reaches. The overall density of riparian spiders was significantly positively correlated with aquatic insect abundances. Horizontal orb weavers (Tetragnathidae) showed a strong response to aquatic insect reduction - abundance at exclosure sites was 57% lower than at control sites. Several spider families that have not been associated with tracking aquatic insect subsidies also showed significantly decreased abundance when aquatic insects were reduced. 4. This result is contrary to predictions of weak subsidy effects where recipient net primary productivity is high. These results suggest that predicting the importance of resource subsidies for food webs requires a focus on the relative abundance of subsidy materials in recipient and donor habitats and not simply on the total flux of energy between systems.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Historically, forested riparian buffers have been created to provide protection for aquatic organisms and aquatic ecosystem functions. Increasingly, new and existing riparian buffers are being used ...also to meet terrestrial conservation requirements. To test the effectiveness of riparian buffers for conserving terrestrial fauna, we conducted a meta-analysis using published data from 397 comparisons of species abundance in riparian buffers and unharvested (reference) riparian sites. The response of terrestrial species to riparian buffers was not consistent between taxonomic groups; bird and arthropod abundances were significantly greater in buffers relative to unharvested areas, whereas amphibian abundance decreased. Edge-preferring species were more abundant in buffer sites than reference sites, whereas species associated with interior habitat were not significantly different in abundance. The degree of buffer effect on animal abundance was unrelated to buffer width; wider buffers did not result in greater similarity between reference and buffer sites. However, responses to buffer treatment were more variable in buffers <50 m wide, a commonly prescribed width in many management plans. Our results indicate that current buffer prescriptions do not maintain most terrestrial organisms in buffer strips at levels comparable to undisturbed sites.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To ...justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets.
We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space–time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5–14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018.
We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5–14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 79% of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.
Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few ...attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
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