Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent ...predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the United States, we show that country-specific regressions for France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom result in quite similar patterns. Defining a “global” variance risk premium, we uncover even stronger predictability and almost identical cross-country patterns through the use of panel regressions.
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BFBNIB, CEKLJ, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Archaeological looting correlates with a number of problems, including the destruction of stratigraphic data and the damage and loss of artifacts. Looting is also understood to generate revenue, but ...systematic analysis of this issue is challenged by its opacity: how can we study the economic effects of archaeological looting when the practice is rarely directly observable? To address this problem, we estimate the market value of archaeological sites where artifacts have been previously excavated and documented, using a machine-learning approach. The first step uses 41,587 sales of objects from 33 firms to train an algorithm to predict the distribution channel, lot packaging, and estimated sale price of objects based on their observable characteristics. The second step uses the trained algorithm to estimate the value of sites in which a large number of artifacts have been legally excavated and documented. We make an out-of-sample prediction on two Syrian sites, Tell Bi’a and Dura Europos.
Market Responses to Court Rulings Beltrametti, Silvia; Marrone, James V.
The Journal of law & economics,
11/2016, Volume:
59, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Although a vast literature considers whether the enactment of laws and regulations impacts markets, very little attention has been paid to the ability of courts to have such an effect. This paper ...fills this gap by providing evidence that court decisions can bring to bear existing legal standards and can have significant effects on market behavior, especially if they convey credible commitments to enforce sanctions. This study shows that the outcome of certain court decisions can reduce illicit trade. By analyzing novel disaggregated data of antiquities sold at auction in the past 20 years, our results indicate that, following punitive court rulings, the share of legitimate items (measured by their ownership history, or provenance) and the price premium paid for such items both increased. In addition, we show that standard assumptions behind repeat-sales indices fail to hold as buyers’ tastes change.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, PRFLJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
“Sleepers” are artworks or collectibles that are undervalued because one or more characteristics go unrecognized. This article discusses 12 sleepers that have been sold at auction on the antiquity ...market since 2007 whose attribution as antiquities were originally overlooked, either accidentally or deliberately. The objects are presented in the context of a theoretical framework describing both the legal and economic incentives to perform due diligence and to reveal, or “awaken,” a sleeper antiquity. The theory implies that sleepers may arise for several reasons, and the case studies are grouped accordingly. Most pressingly, the analysis identifies two ways in which sellers are disincentivized to be transparent about an object’s identity: when they can exploit legal loopholes to deliberately misattribute an antiquity and mediate export and when they can hide disagreement about an object’s authenticity to mediate its sale. Placing the case studies in the broader market context, we highlight particular areas that should be addressed by policy or regulatory reform. The analysis also has wider applications to other forms of art.
Scabies, a highly pruritic and contagious mite infestation of the skin, is endemic among tropical regions and causes a substantial proportion of skin disease among lower-income countries. Delayed ...treatment can lead to bacterial superinfection, and treatment of close contacts is necessary to prevent reinfestation. We describe scabies incidence and superinfection among children in American Samoa (AS) to support scabies control recommendations.
We reviewed 2011-2012 pharmacy records from the only AS pharmacy to identify children aged ≤14 years with filled prescriptions for permethrin, the only scabicide available in AS. Medical records of identified children were reviewed for physician-diagnosed scabies during January 1, 2011-December 31, 2012. We calculated scabies incidence, bacterial superinfection prevalence, and reinfestation prevalence during 14-365 days after first diagnosis. We used log binomial regression to calculate incidence ratios for scabies by age, sex, and county. Medical record review identified 1,139 children with scabies (incidence 29.3/1,000 children aged ≤14 years); 604 (53%) had a bacterial superinfection. Of 613 children who received a scabies diagnosis during 2011, 94 (15.3%) had one or more reinfestation. Scabies incidence varied significantly among the nine counties (range 14.8-48.9/1,000 children). Children aged <1 year had the highest incidence (99.9/1,000 children). Children aged 0-4 years were 4.9 times more likely and those aged 5-9 years were 2.2 times more likely to have received a scabies diagnosis than children aged 10-14 years.
Scabies and its sequelae cause substantial morbidity among AS children. Bacterial superinfection prevalence and frequent reinfestations highlight the importance of diagnosing scabies and early treatment of patients and close contacts. Investigating why certain AS counties have a lower scabies incidence might help guide recommendations for improving scabies control among counties with a higher incidence. We recommend interventions targeting infants and young children who have frequent close family contact.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper provides the first systematic analysis of a particular norm at major antiquities auctions: selling items in groups. The analysis decomposes large auction lots of Near Eastern antiquities ...into their constituent items and examines the provenance of items individually. This provides insight into the known supply chain, or provenance, for thousands of items from a region in which archaeological looting has become a particular concern. The analysis shows that items sold in groups constitute a large source of revenue on the market, but are small and come with poor documentation, making them problematic in several ways. A variety of additional analyses show that the market does not price provenance in a way that generates incentives to improve these problematic aspects of the trade. The paper contributes to the understanding of the end market for Middle Eastern cultural heritage, and concludes with implications for public policy, law, and heritage preservation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
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ACUTE RHEUMATIC FEVER IN AMERICAN SAMOA Erdem, Guliz; Dodd, Anna; Tuua, Anita ...
The Pediatric infectious disease journal,
2007-December, Volume:
26, Issue:
12
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Acute rheumatic fever is common among Samoans in Hawaii. During 2 visits to evaluate the magnitude of rheumatic fever problem among Samoans in American Samoa, we identified 148 patients with ...rheumatic fever on penicillin prophylaxis. Retrospective chart reviews were done showing possible delays in diagnosis of acute rheumatic fever.
Background: We report a practical and affordable pilot echocardiographic screening model for the detection of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Samoan children. Materials and methods: Following a ...brief training period, three medical students recruited and screened 58.3% (N = 140) of schoolchildren aged 7–18 years on the remote Pacific island of Ta’u, American Samoa, performing echocardiography with a SonoSite® portable ultrasound machine. Results: None of the echocardiographic images obtained showed significant abnormality consistent with RHD on their review by two pediatric cardiologists on Oahu, Hawaii. Conclusions: The implementation of echocardiographic screening in resource-poor regions with high rates of acute rheumatic fever and RHD, such as American Samoa, is feasible with limited training of personnel.
Significant limitations and rapid declines in financial capacity are a hallmark of patients with early‐stage Alzheimer's disease (AD). We use linked Health and Retirement Study and Medicare claims ...data spanning 1992–2014 to examine the effect of early‐stage AD, from the start of first symptoms to diagnosis, on household financial outcomes. We estimate household fixed‐effects models and examine continuous measures of liquid assets and net wealth, as well as dichotomous indicators for a large change in either outcome. We find robust evidence that early‐stage AD places households at significant risk for large adverse changes in liquid assets. Further, we find some, but more limited, evidence that early‐stage AD reduces net wealth. Our findings are consequential because financial vulnerability during the disease's early‐stage impacts the ability of afflicted individuals and their families to pay for care in the disease's later stage. Additionally, the findings speak to the value that earlier diagnosis may provide by helping avert adverse financial outcomes that occur before the disease is currently diagnosable with available tools. These results also point to a potentially important role for financial institutions in helping reduce exposure of vulnerable elderly to poor outcomes.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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