To address severe air pollution, the Chinese government plans to replace most residential coal stoves in northern China with clean heating devices by 2021. Coal stove replacement started in the ...“Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH)” region and is expanding throughout northern China. Removing coal stoves reduces air pollutant emissions and hence is beneficial for both air quality and public health, as well as offering greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits. However, there is little discussion of the economic costs of various clean heating technologies. In this study, we estimate total annual costs (TAC, annualized capital costs plus annual operating costs) for rural households, across cities/counties in the BTH region, to replace their coal stoves with several prevalent clean options—air-source heat pumps with fan coils (ASHPwF), electric resistance heaters with thermal storage (RHwTS), natural gas heaters (NGH), and clean coal briquettes with improved stoves (CCIS). We find: 1) Without subsidies, CCIS have the lowest TAC of all clean options. TAC of unsubsidized CCIS approximately doubles TAC of raw coal with improved stoves (RCIS), while unsubsidized electric/gas heaters cost 3–5 times more than RCIS. Thus, it is important for governments to financially support households' replacement of their coal stoves with clean heaters to facilitate widespread adoption. 2) With subsidies, CCIS have the lowest TAC in all regions except Beijing. In Beijing, generous subsides make ASHPwF—the most energy-efficient option—have the lowest TAC. In Tianjin, TAC of subsidized ASHPwF are slightly higher than CCIS and NGH. Throughout Hebei, except for a few severely cold northern counties where gas prices are high, subsidized NGH have lower TAC than ASHPwF and RHwTS. 3) Cost competitiveness of ASHPwF increases as heat demand increases, (e.g., higher desired indoor temperatures, larger home sizes, etc.) indicating that ASHP are good options for households with larger home sizes and commercial buildings. 4) Substantial potential exists to reduce heating expenses by improving building energy efficiency particularly in severely cold regions. 5) Cost advantages of NGH vary sharply with gas prices.
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•We evaluate capital and operating costs for households of using various heating options across the BTH region.•Clean coal briquettes with improved stoves cost less than electric or gas heaters if subsidies are not provided.•Switching from coal stoves to efficient air-source heat pumps do not increase heating expenses in Beijing and Tianjin due to generous subsidies.•Air-source heat pumps cost less than gas heaters in some extremely cold northern parts of Hebei.•Air-source heat pumps are particularly cost-efficient options for commercial buildings and large homes.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation is expanding rapidly in China, with total capacity projected to be 400 GW by 2030. However, severe aerosol pollution over China reduces solar radiation ...reaching the surface. We estimate the aerosol impact on solar PV electricity generation at the provincial and regional grid levels in China. Our approach is to examine the 12-year (2003–2014) average reduction in point-of-array irradiance (POAI) caused by aerosols in the atmosphere. We apply satellite-derived surface irradiance data from the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) with a PV performance model (PVLIB-Python) to calculate the impact of aerosols and clouds on POAI. Our findings reveal that aerosols over northern and eastern China, the most polluted regions, reduce annual average POAI by up to 1.5 kWh/m² per day relative to pollution-free conditions, a decrease of up to 35%. Annual average reductions of POAI over both northern and eastern China are about 20–25%. We also evaluate the seasonal variability of the impact and find that aerosols in this region are as important as clouds in winter. Furthermore, we find that aerosols decrease electricity output of tracking PV systems more than those with fixed arrays: over eastern China, POAI is reduced by 21% for fixed systems at optimal angle and 34% for two-axis tracking systems. We conclude that PV system performance in northern and eastern China will benefit from improvements in air quality and will facilitate that improvement by providing emission-free electricity.
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Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are ...conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them.
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Air pollutant emissions from Chinese households Liu, Jun; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Chen, Qi ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
07/2016, Volume:
113, Issue:
28
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
As part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government has developed air pollution prevention and control plans for key regions with a focus on the power, transport, and industrial sectors. Here, ...we investigate the contribution of residential emissions to regional air pollution in highly polluted eastern China during the heating season, and find that dramatic improvements in air quality would also result from reduction in residential emissions. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry to evaluate potential residential emission controls in Beijing and in the Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei (BTH) region. In January and February 2010, relative to the base case, eliminating residential emissions in Beijing reduced daily average surface PM2.5 (particulate mater with aerodynamic diameter equal or smaller than 2.5 micrometer) concentrations by 14 ± 7 μg·m−3 (22 ± 6% of a baseline concentration of 67 ± 41 μg·m−3; mean ± SD). Eliminating residential emissions in the BTH region reduced concentrations by 28 ± 19 μg·m−3 (40 ± 9% of 67 ± 41 μg·m−3), 44 ± 27 μg·m−3 (43 ± 10% of 99 ± 54 μg·m−3), and 25 ± 14 μg·m−3 (35 ± 8% of 70 ± 35 μg·m−3) in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces, respectively. Annually, elimination of residential sources in the BTH region reduced emissions of primary PM2.5 by 32%, compared with 5%, 6%, and 58% achieved by eliminating emissions from the transportation, power, and industry sectors, respectively. We also find air quality in Beijing would benefit substantially from reductions in residential emissions from regional controls in Tianjin and Hebei, indicating the value of policies at the regional level.
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Exposure to elevated concentrations of surface ozone (O
3) causes substantial reductions in the agricultural yields of many crops. As emissions of O
3 precursors rise in many parts of the world over ...the next few decades, yield reductions from O
3 exposure appear likely to increase the challenges of feeding a global population projected to grow from 6 to 9 billion between 2000 and 2050. This study estimates year 2000 global yield reductions of three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat) due to surface ozone exposure using hourly O
3 concentrations simulated by the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 2.4 (MOZART-2). We calculate crop losses according to two metrics of ozone exposure – seasonal daytime (08:00–19:59) mean O
3 (M12) and accumulated O
3 above a threshold of 40 ppbv (AOT40) – and predict crop yield losses using crop-specific O
3 concentration:response functions established by field studies. Our results indicate that year 2000 O
3-induced global yield reductions ranged, depending on the metric used, from 8.5–14% for soybean, 3.9–15% for wheat, and 2.2–5.5% for maize. Global crop production losses totaled 79–121 million metric tons, worth $11–18 billion annually (USD
2000). Our calculated yield reductions agree well with previous estimates, providing further evidence that yields of major crops across the globe are already being substantially reduced by exposure to surface ozone – a risk that will grow unless O
3-precursor emissions are curbed in the future or crop cultivars are developed and utilized that are resistant to O
3.
► Surface O
3 is having a substantial impact on the yields of key crops. ► Yields of wheat, soybean, and maize were reduced by up to 15% globally in 2000. ► Global year 2000 crop production losses totaled 79–121 million metric tons. ► Agricultural losses are estimated to be worth $11–18 billion USD
2000 annually.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
China’s economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and ...rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China’s future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km ³/y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%.
Significance Agriculture represents the largest water-consuming sector in China, while industry and cities are growing competitors. To sustain a rapidly increasing population with richer diets, high levels of food production have come at significant environmental costs, such as groundwater overdraft and soil degradation. As socioeconomic growth and the associated pressure on water resources continue to increase, it is crucial to evaluate the effects of water-saving measures on agriculture, food trade, and water resources. This article estimates China’s future food trade patterns and associated water transfers and quantifies the effects of targeted irrigated land reductions on water consumption and food self-sufficiency, accounting for production displacement and local water productivity. Our findings provide important insights to policy-makers on trade-offs between environmental and agricultural objectives.
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Summary Environmental risk factors, especially air and water pollution, are a major source of morbidity and mortality in China. Biomass fuel and coal are burned for cooking and heating in almost all ...rural and many urban households, resulting in severe indoor air pollution that contributes greatly to the burden of disease. Many communities lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation, and thus the risk of waterborne disease in many regions is high. At the same time, China is rapidly industrialising with associated increases in energy use and industrial waste. Although economic growth from industrialisation has improved health and quality of life indicators, it has also increased the release of chemical toxins into the environment and the rate of environmental disasters, with severe effects on health. Air quality in China's cities is among the worst in the world, and industrial water pollution has become a widespread health hazard. Moreover, emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases from energy use are rapidly increasing. Global climate change will inevitably intensify China's environmental health troubles, with potentially catastrophic outcomes from major shifts in temperature and precipitation. Facing the overlap of traditional, modern, and emerging environmental dilemmas, China has committed substantial resources to environmental improvement. The country has the opportunity to address its national environmental health challenges and to assume a central role in the international effort to improve the global environment.
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We analyze the spatial and technological distribution of China's overseas electric power investments around the world, and the pollution intensity of Chinese coal fired power plants relative to those ...held by non-Chinese entities. We find that Chinese firms hold approximately $115 billion USD in electric power assets globally, with an average of 73% ownership stake in a total capacity of 81 GW. Chinese power investments span the globe but are largely found in developing countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America. The vast majority of Chinese investment goes to coal (24.5 GW), gas (20.5 GW) and hydropower (18.1 GW), while the share of wind (7.2 GW) and solar (3.1 GW) is relatively small but may be rising. The energy mix of Chinese overseas investment is similar to the existing world portfolio. Within the coal sector, between 2011 and 2017, the majority of Chinese greenfield investment in coal used supercritical technologies (58 percent) while only 34 percent of non-Chinese coal plants built during this period were supercritical.
•A comprehensive database is compiled to record all Chinese overseas power generating projects.•By 2017, China invested a total of $115 billion USD in 81 GW of power generating assets overseas.•Chinese investment is largely found in emerging economies and is dominated by coal, gas and hydro power.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Abstract
Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the ...climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared to slower and delayed mitigation timelines. We find that the scale up and deployment of greatly underutilized but available mitigation measures will have significant near-term temperature benefits beyond that from slow or delayed action. Overall, strategies exist to cut global methane emissions from human activities in half within the next ten years and half of these strategies currently incur no net cost. Pursuing all mitigation measures now could slow the global-mean rate of near-term decadal warming by around 30%, avoid a quarter of a degree centigrade of additional global-mean warming by midcentury, and set ourselves on a path to avoid more than half a degree centigrade by end of century. On the other hand, slow implementation of these measures may result in an additional tenth of a degree of global-mean warming by midcentury and 5% faster warming rate (relative to fast action), and waiting to pursue these measures until midcentury may result in an additional two tenths of a degree centigrade by midcentury and 15% faster warming rate (relative to fast action). Slow or delayed methane action is viewed by many as reasonable given that current and on-the-horizon climate policies heavily emphasize actions that benefit the climate in the long-term, such as decarbonization and reaching net-zero emissions, whereas methane emitted over the next couple of decades will play a limited role in long-term warming. However, given that fast methane action can considerably limit climate damages in the near-term, it is urgent to scale up efforts and take advantage of this achievable and affordable opportunity as we simultaneously reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
China’s water resources are under increasing pressure from socioeconomic development, diet shifts, and climate change. Agriculture still concentrates most of the national water withdrawal. Moreover, ...a spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability—with abundant agricultural land and little water resources in the north—increases water scarcity and results in virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions through agricultural trade. We use a general equilibrium welfare model and linear programming optimization to model interprovincial food trade in China. We combine these trade flows with province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content to build China’s domestic and foreign virtual water trade network. We observe large variations in agricultural water-use efficiency among provinces. In addition, some provinces particularly rely on irrigation vs. rainwater. We analyze the virtual water flow patterns and the corresponding water savings. We find that this interprovincial network is highly connected and the flow distribution is relatively homogeneous. A significant share of water flows is from international imports (20%), which are dominated by soy (93%). We find that China’s domestic food trade is efficient in terms of rainwater but inefficient regarding irrigation, meaning that dry, irrigation-intensive provinces tend to export to wetter, less irrigation-intensive ones. Importantly, when incorporating foreign imports, China’s soy trade switches from an inefficient system to a particularly efficient one for saving water resources (20 km ³/y irrigation water savings, 41 km ³/y total). Finally, we identify specific provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia) and products (e.g., corn) that show high potential for irrigation productivity improvements.
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