How does the context in which a person lives affect his or her political behavior? I exploit an event in which demographic context was exogenously changed, leading to a significant change in voters' ...behavior and demonstrating that voters react strongly to changes in an outgroup population. Between 2000 and 2004, the reconstruction of public housing in Chicago caused the displacement of over 25,000 African Americans, many of whom had previously lived in close proximity to white voters. After the removal of their African American neighbors, the white voters' turnout dropped by over 10 percentage points. Consistent with psychological theories of racial threat, their change in behavior was a function of the size and proximity of the outgroup population. Proximity was also related to increased voting for conservative candidates. These findings strongly suggest that racial threat occurs because of attitude change rather than selection.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
The effect of intergroup contact has long been a question central to social scientists. As political and technological changes bring increased international migration, understanding intergroup ...contact is increasingly important to scientific and policy debates. Unfortunately, limitations in causal inference using observational data and the practical inability to experimentally manipulate demographic diversity has limited scholars' ability to address the effects of intergroup contact. Here, I report the results of a randomized controlled trial testing the causal effects of repeated intergroup contact, in which Spanish-speaking confederates were randomly assigned to be inserted, for a period of days, into the daily routines of unknowing Anglo-whites living in homogeneous communities in the United States, thus simulating the conditions of demographic change. The result of this experiment is a significant shift toward exclusionary attitudes among treated subjects. This experiment demonstrates that even very minor demographic change causes strong exclusionary reactions. Developed nations and politically liberal subnational units are expected to experience a politically conservative shift as international migration brings increased intergroup contact.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Demographic models built from genetic data play important roles in illuminating prehistorical events and serving as null models in genome scans for selection. We introduce an inference method based ...on the joint frequency spectrum of genetic variants within and between populations. For candidate models we numerically compute the expected spectrum using a diffusion approximation to the one-locus, two-allele Wright-Fisher process, involving up to three simultaneous populations. Our approach is a composite likelihood scheme, since linkage between neutral loci alters the variance but not the expectation of the frequency spectrum. We thus use bootstraps incorporating linkage to estimate uncertainties for parameters and significance values for hypothesis tests. Our method can also incorporate selection on single sites, predicting the joint distribution of selected alleles among populations experiencing a bevy of evolutionary forces, including expansions, contractions, migrations, and admixture. We model human expansion out of Africa and the settlement of the New World, using 5 Mb of noncoding DNA resequenced in 68 individuals from 4 populations (YRI, CHB, CEU, and MXL) by the Environmental Genome Project. We infer divergence between West African and Eurasian populations 140 thousand years ago (95% confidence interval: 40-270 kya). This is earlier than other genetic studies, in part because we incorporate migration. We estimate the European (CEU) and East Asian (CHB) divergence time to be 23 kya (95% c.i.: 17-43 kya), long after archeological evidence places modern humans in Europe. Finally, we estimate divergence between East Asians (CHB) and Mexican-Americans (MXL) of 22 kya (95% c.i.: 16.3-26.9 kya), and our analysis yields no evidence for subsequent migration. Furthermore, combining our demographic model with a previously estimated distribution of selective effects among newly arising amino acid mutations accurately predicts the frequency spectrum of nonsynonymous variants across three continental populations (YRI, CHB, CEU).
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract Background Despite increasing interest in advance care planning (ACP) and prior ACP descriptions, a consensus definition does not yet exist to guide clinical, research, and policy ...initiatives. Objective To develop a consensus definition of ACP for adults. Design Delphi Panel Setting/Participants Participants included a multidisciplinary panel of international ACP experts consisting of 52 clinicians, researchers, and policy leaders from 4 countries, and a patient/surrogate advisory committee. Measurements We conducted 10 rounds of a modified Delphi method and qualitatively analyzed panelists’ input. Panelists identified several themes lacking consensus, and iteratively discussed and developed a final consensus definition. Results Panelists identified several tensions concerning ACP concepts such as whether the definition should focus on conversations vs. written advance directives; patients’ values vs. treatment preferences; current shared decision making vs. future medical decisions; and who should be included in the process. The panel achieved a final consensus one-sentence definition and accompanying goals statement: “Advance care planning is a process that supports adults at any age or stage of health in understanding and sharing their personal values, life goals, and preferences regarding future medical care. The goal of advance care planning is to help ensure that people receive medical care that is consistent with their values, goals and preferences during serious and chronic illness.” The panel also described strategies to best support adults in ACP. Conclusions A multidisciplinary Delphi panel developed a consensus definition for ACP for adults that can be used to inform implementation and measurement of ACP clinical, research, and policy initiatives.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The matter created in central p+p, p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions at s=5.02 TeV is simulated event-by-event using the superSONIC model, which combines pre-equilibrium flow, viscous hydrodynamic evolution ...and late-stage hadronic rescatterings. Employing a generalization of the Monte Carlo Glauber model where each nucleon possesses three constituent quarks, superSONIC describes the experimentally measured elliptic and triangular flow at central rapidity in all systems using a single choice for the fluid parameters, such as shear and bulk viscosities. This suggests a common hydrodynamic origin of the experimentally observed flow patterns in all high energy nuclear collisions, including p+p.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a genetically heterogeneous cancer composed of at least 2 molecular subtypes that differ in gene expression and distribution of mutations. Recently, ...application of genome/exome sequencing and RNA-seq to DLBCL has revealed numerous genes that are recurrent targets of somatic point mutation in this disease. Here we provide a whole-genome-sequencing-based perspective of DLBCL mutational complexity by characterizing 40 de novo DLBCL cases and 13 DLBCL cell lines and combining these data with DNA copy number analysis and RNA-seq from an extended cohort of 96 cases. Our analysis identified widespread genomic rearrangements including evidence for chromothripsis as well as the presence of known and novel fusion transcripts. We uncovered new gene targets of recurrent somatic point mutations and genes that are targeted by focal somatic deletions in this disease. We highlight the recurrence of germinal center B-cell-restricted mutations affecting genes that encode the S1P receptor and 2 small GTPases (GNA13 and GNAI2) that together converge on regulation of B-cell homing. We further analyzed our data to approximate the relative temporal order in which some recurrent mutations were acquired and demonstrate that ongoing acquisition of mutations and intratumoral clonal heterogeneity are common features of DLBCL. This study further improves our understanding of the processes and pathways involved in lymphomagenesis, and some of the pathways mutated here may indicate new avenues for therapeutic intervention.
•Complete genome sequence analysis of 40 DLBCL tumors and 13 cell lines reveals novel somatic point mutations, rearrangements, and fusions.•Recurrence of mutations in genes involved in B-cell homing were identified in germinal center B-cell DLBCLs.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES
Advance care planning (ACP) has shown benefit in some, but not all, studies. It is important to understand the utility of ACP. We conducted a scoping review to identify ...promising interventions and outcomes.
DESIGN
Scoping review.
MEASUREMENTS
We searched MEDLINE/PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for ACP randomized controlled trials from January 1, 2010, to March 3, 2020. We used standardized Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta‐Analyses methods to chart study characteristics, including a standardized ACP Outcome Framework: Process (e.g., readiness), Action (e.g., communication), Quality of Care (e.g., satisfaction), Health Status (e.g., anxiety), and Healthcare Utilization. Differences between arms of P < .05 were deemed positive.
RESULTS
Of 1,464 articles, 69 met eligibility; 94% were rated high quality. There were variable definitions, age criteria (≥18 to ≥80 years), diseases (e.g., dementia and cancer), and settings (e.g., outpatient and inpatient). Interventions included facilitated discussions (42%), video only (20%), interactive, multimedia (17%), written only (12%), and clinician training (9%). For written only, 75% of primary outcomes were positive, as were 69% for multimedia programs; 67% for facilitated discussions, 59% for video only, and 57% for clinician training. Overall, 72% of Process and 86% of Action outcomes were positive. For Quality of Care, 88% of outcomes were positive for patient‐surrogate/clinician congruence, 100% for patients/surrogate/clinician satisfaction with communication, and 75% for surrogate satisfaction with patientsʼ care, but not for goal concordance. For Health Status outcomes, 100% were positive for reducing surrogate/clinician distress, but not for patient quality of life. Healthcare Utilization data were mixed.
CONCLUSION
ACP is complex, and trial characteristics were heterogeneous. Outcomes for all ACP interventions were predominantly positive, as were Process and Action outcomes. Although some Quality of Care and Health Status outcomes were mixed, increased patient/surrogate satisfaction with communication and care and decreased surrogate/clinician distress were positive. Further research is needed to appropriately tailor interventions and outcomes for local contexts, set appropriate expectations of ACP outcomes, and standardize across studies.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Modern life is intimately linked to the availability of fossil fuels, which continue to meet the world's growing energy needs even though their use drives climate change, exhausts finite reserves and ...contributes to global political strife. Biofuels made from renewable resources could be a more sustainable alternative, particularly if sourced from organisms, such as algae, that can be farmed without using valuable arable land. Strain development and process engineering are needed to make algal biofuels practical and economically viable.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The July 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence produced cross‐fault ruptures from a Mw6.4 left‐lateral foreshock and a Mw7.1 right‐lateral mainshock. We use interferometric synthetic ...aperture radar and satellite optical imagery to characterize the surface displacements and subsurface fault slip characteristics of the sequence. We document ~46 km of surface rupture and peak slip values of ~5 m associated with the Mw7.1 and evidence that the two ruptures crossed each other. We additionally document evidence of triggered creep along 20–25 km of the central Garlock fault. Static stress change analysis shows that the foreshock sequence systematically promoted slip at the Mw7.1 hypocenter. Moreover, we find static stress changes promoted slip on the Garlock fault only in locations where we document surface creep, strongly indicating that the Garlock fault is sensitive to static stress changes. A potential rupture of the Garlock fault where slip was promoted could produce a Mw6.7–7.0 earthquake.
Key Points
We document kinematics of the July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, including crossing surface ruptures
The 34‐hr foreshock sequence systematically increased stresses and encouraged rupture of the Mw7.1 mainshock
The sequence triggered aseismic slip on the central Garlock fault that correlates strongly to static stress changes
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Although infrequent, tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify under moderate vertical wind shear (VWS). A potential hypothesis is that other factors—associated with both the TC and its ...environment—can help offset the effects of VWS and aid intensification. This hypothesis was tested with a large dataset of 6-hourly best tracks and environmental diagnostics for global TCs between 1982 and 2014. Moderate VWS was objectively defined as 4.5–11.0 m s−1, which represents the 25th–75th percentiles of the global distribution of 200–850-hPa VWS magnitude around TCs. Intensifying events (i.e., unique 6-hourly data points) were compared against steady-state events to determine which TC and environmental characteristics favored intensification under moderate VWS. This comparison showed that intensifying events were significantly stronger, closer to the equator, larger, and moving with a more westward motion than steady-state events. Furthermore, intensifying events moved within environments characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures, greater midtropospheric water vapor, and more easterly VWS than steady-state events. Storm-relative, shear-relative composites suggested that the coupling between water vapor, surface latent heat fluxes, and storm-relative flow asymmetries was conducive for less dry air intrusions and more symmetric rainfall in intensifying events. Last, the comparison showed no systematic differences between environmental wind profiles possibly due to the large temporal variability of VWS.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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