In the centenary year of the devastating 1918‐19 pandemic, it seems opportune to reflect on the success of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) initiated 70 years ago to ...provide early warning of changes in influenza viruses circulating in the global population to help mitigate the consequences of such a pandemic and maintain the efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccines. Three pandemics later and in the face of pandemic threats from highly pathogenic zoonotic infections by different influenza A subtypes, it continues to represent a model platform for global collaboration and timely sharing of viruses, reagents and information to forestall and respond to public health emergencies.
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Surface antigens of pathogens are commonly targeted by vaccine-elicited antibodies but antigenic variability, notably in RNA viruses such as influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2, pose challenges for control ...by vaccination. For example, influenza A(H3N2) entered the human population in 1968 causing a pandemic and has since been monitored, along with other seasonal influenza viruses, for the emergence of antigenic drift variants through intensive global surveillance and laboratory characterisation. Statistical models of the relationship between genetic differences among viruses and their antigenic similarity provide useful information to inform vaccine development, though accurate identification of causative mutations is complicated by highly correlated genetic signals that arise due to the evolutionary process. Here, using a sparse hierarchical Bayesian analogue of an experimentally validated model for integrating genetic and antigenic data, we identify the genetic changes in influenza A(H3N2) virus that underpin antigenic drift. We show that incorporating protein structural data into variable selection helps resolve ambiguities arising due to correlated signals, with the proportion of variables representing haemagglutinin positions decisively included, or excluded, increased from 59.8% to 72.4%. The accuracy of variable selection judged by proximity to experimentally determined antigenic sites was improved simultaneously. Structure-guided variable selection thus improves confidence in the identification of genetic explanations of antigenic variation and we also show that prioritising the identification of causative mutations is not detrimental to the predictive capability of the analysis. Indeed, incorporating structural information into variable selection resulted in a model that could more accurately predict antigenic assay titres for phenotypically-uncharacterised virus from genetic sequence. Combined, these analyses have the potential to inform choices of reference viruses, the targeting of laboratory assays, and predictions of the evolutionary success of different genotypes, and can therefore be used to inform vaccine selection processes.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The impact of avian influenza caused by H9N2 viruses in Pakistan is now significantly more severe than in previous years. Since all gene segments contribute towards the virulence of avian influenza ...virus, it was imperative to investigate the molecular features and genetic relationships of H9N2 viruses prevalent in this region. Analysis of the gene sequences of all eight RNA segments from 12 viruses isolated between 2005 and 2008 was undertaken. The hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of all isolates were closely related to H9N2 viruses isolated from Iran between 2004 and 2007 and contained leucine instead of glutamine at position 226 in the receptor binding pocket, a recognised marker for the recognition of sialic acids linked α2-6 to galactose. The neuraminidase (NA) of two isolates contained a unique five residue deletion in the stalk (from residues 80 to 84), a possible indication of greater adaptation of these viruses to the chicken host. The HA, NA, nucleoprotein (NP), and matrix (M) genes showed close identity with H9N2 viruses isolated during 1999 in Pakistan and clustered in the A/Quail/Hong Kong/G1/97 virus lineage. In contrast, the polymerase genes clustered with H9N2 viruses from India, Iran and Dubai. The NS gene segment showed greater genetic diversity and shared a high level of similarity with NS genes from either H5 or H7 subtypes rather than with established H9N2 Eurasian lineages. These results indicate that during recent years the H9N2 viruses have undergone extensive genetic reassortment which has led to the generation of H9N2 viruses of novel genotypes in the Indian sub-continent. The novel genotypes of H9N2 viruses may play a role in the increased problems observed by H9N2 to poultry and reinforce the continued need to monitor H9N2 infections for their zoonotic potential.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Different influenza virus strains have caused a number of recent outbreaks killing scores of people and causing significant losses in animal farming. Simple, rapid, sensitive, and specific detection ...of particular strains, such as a pandemic strain versus a previous seasonal influenza, plays a crucial role in the monitoring, controlling, and management of outbreaks. In this paper we describe a dual recognition element lateral flow assay (DRELFA) which pairs a nucleic acid aptamer with an antibody for use as a point-of-care platform which can detect particular strains of interest. The combination is used to overcome the individual limitations of antibodies’ cross-reactivity and aptamers’ slow binding kinetics. In the detection of influenza viruses, we show that DRELFA can discriminate a particular virus strain against others of the same subtype or common respiratory diseases while still exhibiting fast binding kinetic of the antibody-based lateral flow assay (LFA). The improvement in specificity that DRELFA exhibits is an advantage over the currently available antibody-based LFA systems for influenza viruses, which offer discrimination between influenza virus types and subtypes. Using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR), it showed that the DRELFA is very effective in localizing the analyte to the test line (consistently over 90%) and this is crucial for the sensitivity of the device. In addition, color intensities of the test lines showed a good correlation between the DRELFA and the qRT-PCR over a 50-fold concentration range. Finally, lateral flow strips with a streptavidin capture test line and an anti-antibody control line are universally applicable to specific detection of a wide range of different analytes.
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IJS, KILJ, NUK, PNG, UL, UM
Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on ...the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.
Seasonal influenza evolves to evade immune recognition, necessitating regular vaccine updates. The World Health Organizationhas collaborated with academic institutions and national public health organizations to build a global surveillance program for monitoring influenza evolution.
Scientists have built predictive models grounded in evolutionary theory that use surveillance data to forecast which viral strains or clades will predominate in the coming months.
Output from these models is already being used to inform influenza vaccine strain selection.
This modeling sheds light on basic science questions: the degree to which evolution is directed and the phylogenetic and genomic signatures of fitness.
This is a success story for large-scale collaborative science.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Of the 132 people known to have been infected with H7N9 influenza viruses in China, 37 died, and many were severely ill. Infection seems to have involved contact with infected poultry. We have ...examined the receptor-binding properties of this H7N9 virus and compared them with those of an avian H7N3 virus. We find that the human H7 virus has significantly higher affinity for α-2,6-linked sialic acid analogues ('human receptor') than avian H7 while retaining the strong binding to α-2,3-linked sialic acid analogues ('avian receptor') characteristic of avian viruses. The human H7 virus does not, therefore, have the preference for human versus avian receptors characteristic of pandemic viruses. X-ray crystallography of the receptor-binding protein, haemagglutinin (HA), in complex with receptor analogues indicates that both human and avian receptors adopt different conformations when bound to human H7 HA than they do when bound to avian H7 HA. Human receptor bound to human H7 HA exits the binding site in a different direction to that seen in complexes formed by HAs from pandemic viruses and from an aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant. The human-receptor-binding properties of human H7 probably arise from the introduction of two bulky hydrophobic residues by the substitutions Gln226Leu and Gly186Val. The former is shared with the 1957 H2 and 1968 H3 pandemic viruses and with the aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant. We conclude that the human H7 virus has acquired some of the receptor-binding characteristics that are typical of pandemic viruses, but its retained preference for avian receptor may restrict its further evolution towards a virus that could transmit efficiently between humans, perhaps by binding to avian-receptor-rich mucins in the human respiratory tract rather than to cellular receptors.
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IJS, KISLJ, NUK, UL, UM, UPUK
The hemagglutinin (HA) of influenza A(H3N2) virus responsible for the 1968 influenza pandemic derived from an avian virus. On introduction into humans, its receptor binding properties had changed ...from a preference for avian receptors (α2,3-linked sialic acid) to a preference for human receptors (α2,6-linked sialic acid). By 2001, the avidity of human H3 viruses for avian receptors had declined, and since then the affinity for human receptors has also decreased significantly. These changes in receptor binding, which correlate with increased difficulties in virus propagation in vitro and in antigenic analysis, have been assessed by virus hemagglutination of erythrocytes from different species and quantified by measuring virus binding to receptor analogs using surface biolayer interferometry. Crystal structures of HA–receptor analog complexes formed with HAs from viruses isolated in 2004 and 2005 reveal significant differences in the conformation of the 220-loop of HA1, relative to the 1968 structure, resulting in altered interactions between the HA and the receptor analog that explain the changes in receptor affinity. Site-specific mutagenesis shows the HA1 Asp-225→Asn substitution to be the key determinant of the decreased receptor binding in viruses circulating since 2005. Our results indicate that the evolution of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses since 1968 has produced a virus with a low propensity to bind human receptor analogs, and this loss of avidity correlates with the marked reduction in A(H3N2) virus disease impact in the last 10 y.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic evolution allowing mutant viruses to evade host immunity acquired to previous virus strains. Antigenic phenotype is often assessed through pairwise ...measurement of cross-reactivity between influenza strains using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Here, we extend previous approaches to antigenic cartography, and simultaneously characterize antigenic and genetic evolution by modeling the diffusion of antigenic phenotype over a shared virus phylogeny. Using HI data from influenza lineages A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata, we determine patterns of antigenic drift across viral lineages, showing that A/H3N2 evolves faster and in a more punctuated fashion than other influenza lineages. We also show that year-to-year antigenic drift appears to drive incidence patterns within each influenza lineage. This work makes possible substantial future advances in investigating the dynamics of influenza and other antigenically-variable pathogens by providing a model that intimately combines molecular and antigenic evolution. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01914.001.
Cell-surface-receptor binding by influenza viruses is a key determinant of their transmissibility, both from avian and animal species to humans as well as from human to human. Highly pathogenic avian ...H5N1 viruses that are a threat to public health have been observed to acquire affinity for human receptors, and transmissible-mutant-selection experiments have identified a virus that is transmissible in ferrets, the generally accepted experimental model for influenza in humans. Here, our quantitative biophysical measurements of the receptor-binding properties of haemagglutinin (HA) from the transmissible mutant indicate a small increase in affinity for human receptor and a marked decrease in affinity for avian receptor. From analysis of virus and HA binding data we have derived an algorithm that predicts virus avidity from the affinity of individual HA-receptor interactions. It reveals that the transmissible-mutant virus has a 200-fold preference for binding human over avian receptors. The crystal structure of the transmissible-mutant HA in complex with receptor analogues shows that it has acquired the ability to bind human receptor in the same folded-back conformation as seen for HA from the 1918, 1957 (ref. 4), 1968 (ref. 5) and 2009 (ref. 6) pandemic viruses. This binding mode is substantially different from that by which non-transmissible wild-type H5 virus HA binds human receptor. The structure of the complex also explains how the change in preference from avian to human receptors arises from the Gln226Leu substitution, which facilitates binding to human receptor but restricts binding to avian receptor. Both features probably contribute to the acquisition of transmissibility by this mutant virus.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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