United States ABRAMOWITZ, ALAN; McCOY, JENNIFER
The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,
01/2019, Volume:
681, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Growing racial, ideological, and cultural polarization within the American electorate contributed to the shocking victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Using data from American ...National Election Studies surveys, we show that Trump’s unusually explicit appeals to racial and ethnic resentment attracted strong support from white working-class voters while repelling many college-educated whites along with the overwhelming majority of nonwhite voters. However, Trump’s campaign exploited divisions that have been growing within the electorate for decades because of demographic and cultural changes in American society. The 2016 presidential campaign also reinforced another longstanding trend in American electoral politics: the rise of negative partisanship, that is voting based on hostility toward the opposing party and its leaders. We conclude with a discussion of the consequences of deepening partisan and affective polarization for American democracy and the perceptions by both experts and the public of an erosion in its quality.
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This article argues that a common pattern and set of dynamics characterizes severe political and societal polarization in different contexts around the world, with pernicious consequences for ...democracy. Moving beyond the conventional conceptualization of polarization as ideological distance between political parties and candidates, we offer a conceptualization of polarization highlighting its inherently relational nature and its instrumental political use. Polarization is a process whereby the normal multiplicity of differences in a society increasingly align along a single dimension and people increasingly perceive and describe politics and society in terms of “Us” versus “Them.” The politics and discourse of opposition and the social–psychological intergroup conflict dynamics produced by this alignment are a main source of the risks polarization generates for democracy, although we recognize that it can also produce opportunities for democracy. We argue that contemporary examples of polarization follow a frequent pattern whereby polarization is activated when major groups in society mobilize politically to achieve fundamental changes in structures, institutions, and power relations. Hence, newly constructed cleavages are appearing that underlie polarization and are not easily measured with the conventional Left–Right ideological scale. We identify three possible negative outcomes for democracy—“gridlock and careening,” “democratic erosion or collapse under new elites and dominant groups,” and “democratic erosion or collapse with old elites and dominant groups,” and one possible positive outcome—“reformed democracy.” Drawing on literature in psychology and political science, the article posits a set of causal mechanisms linking polarization to harm to democracy and illustrates the common patterns and pernicious consequences for democracy in four country cases: varying warning signs of democratic erosion in Hungary and the United States, and growing authoritarianism in Turkey and Venezuela.
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This volume collects and analyzes eleven country case studies of polarized polities that are, or had been, electoral democracies, identifying the common and differing causal mechanisms that lead to ...different outcomes for democracy when a society experiences polarization. In this introduction, we discuss our goals for the volume, the comparative logic we apply to the cases, our overall methodological approach, and the concepts that ground the analyses. The goal of this volume is to explore pernicious polarization, i.e., when and how a society divides into mutually distrustful “us vs. them” blocs, which endangers democracy. Accordingly, we discuss the effects of such polarization on democracies, and start building a foundation for remedies. In this introductory article, we highlight and explain the inherently political and relational aspects of polarization in general and pernicious polarization in particular, present the concept of formative rifts, and discuss how opposition strategies should be part of an explanation of severe polarization.
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With recent political developments sparking sharp divisions within democracies, an understanding of the dynamics of polarization is ever more necessary. Yet we still lack the tools necessary for its ...comparative study at the mass level. Finding that conventional measures of polarization as ideological distance between parties or among voters do not fully capture political polarization, we develop a new index of mass partisan polarization based on support and rejection of political parties by the public. We argue that measuring polarization over political parties allows us to capture divisions over a broader range of identities or issues which parties can represent or take positions on. Using Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data, our empirical validity tests support this argument. It is our hope that this index may facilitate the further comparative study of mass political polarization on a global scale.
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Rectovaginal colonization with Group B Streptococcus during pregnancy has historically been shown to be associated with an increased risk of clinical chorioamnionitis and peripartum infectious ...morbidity.
Newer observational data in the era of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis suggest a possible reversal of this association; however, it is unclear if this is related to differences in labor management for those with and without Group B Streptococcus colonization. We therefore sought to assess the association between intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis for Group B Streptococcus colonization and clinical chorioamnionitis within the context of a randomized induction of labor trial with a standardized labor protocol.
We performed an exploratory secondary analysis of a randomized trial of patients undergoing term induction at a tertiary care center. Patients received third trimester Group B Streptococcus screening and intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis as routine care. Group B Streptococcus detection was performed using a carrot broth-enhanced subculture to Group B Streptococcus Detect approach (Hardy Diagnostics, Santa Maria, CA). Labor management was protocolized per the trial. Patients with unknown Group B Streptococcus status or who did not receive intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis, if indicated, were excluded. The primary outcome was diagnosis of clinical chorioamnionitis, compared between patients who received intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis for known Group B Streptococcus positive status (by culture, history, or Group B Streptococcus bacteriuria) and those who were Group B Streptococcus negative and did not receive intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis. Secondary outcomes included postpartum endometritis, wound infection, a composite maternal peripartum infectious morbidity, and neonatal outcomes.
A total of 491 patients were enrolled in the trial. Of these, 466 had a known Group B Streptococcus status and received or did not receive intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis accordingly and were included in this analysis: 292 (62.7%) were Group B Streptococcus negative and did not receive intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis, and 174 (37.3%) were Group B Streptococcus positive and received intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis. The majority of patients were Non-Hispanic Black (78.1%) and nulliparous (59.7%). There were no differences in demographic, clinical, induction or labor characteristics between groups. Patients who were Group B Streptococcus positive had a 49% lower rate of clinical chorioamnionitis (8.1% vs 14.7%, odds ratio, 0.51; P=.03) and a lower rate of peripartum infectious morbidity (8.1% vs 15.8%, odds ratio, 0.47; P=.02) compared to those who were Group B Streptococcus negative. Infants born to patients who were Group B Streptococcus positive were significantly less likely to be admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (3.4% vs 15.1%, P<.001).
Although Group B Streptococcus colonization has historically been considered a risk factor for clinical chorioamnionitis, in the era of universal antibiotic prophylaxis for Group B Streptococcus positive patients, our findings support the point that intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis for Group B Streptococcus positivity is associated with lower rates of clinical chorioamnionitis and peripartum infectious morbidity among patients undergoing induction with protocolized labor management. These findings demonstrate that intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis for Group B Streptococcus may protect against perinatal infectious morbidity, a phenomenon that warrants further investigation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
To evaluate the rates of cesarean delivery in patients with prolonged labor randomized to receive intravenous (IV) propranolol compared with placebo.
A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized ...trial was conducted at two hospitals within a large academic health system. Eligible patients were at 36 weeks or more with a singleton gestation and prolonged labor , defined as: 1) prolonged latent phase of labor (dilation less than 6 cm after 8 hours or more with ruptured membranes and receiving oxytocin infusion) or 2) prolonged active phase of labor (dilation 6 cm or greater and less than 1-cm cervical dilation change over 2 hours or more with ruptured membranes and receiving oxytocin infusion). Patients were excluded for severe preeclampsia, maternal heart rate less than 70 beats per minute, maternal blood pressure less than 90/50 mm Hg, asthma, diabetes requiring insulin during labor, or a cardiac contraindication to β-blockade. Patients were randomized to propranolol (2 mg IV) compared with placebo (2 mL normal saline IV), with one possible repeat dose. The primary outcome was cesarean delivery; secondary outcomes included labor duration, shoulder dystocia, and maternal and neonatal morbidity. With an estimated cesarean delivery rate of 45%, α 0.05, and 80% power, we required 163 patients per group to detect a 15% absolute reduction in cesarean delivery rate. A planned interim analysis was performed, and the trial was stopped for futility.
From July 2020 to June 2022, 349 patients were eligible and approached; 164 were enrolled and randomized, with 84 in the propranolol group and 80 in the placebo group. The rate of cesarean delivery was not different between groups (57.1% propranolol vs 57.5% placebo, relative risk RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.76-1.29). Results were similar by subgroup of prolonged latent (n=123) and active (n=41) phases of labor and nulliparous (n=137) and multiparous (n=27) patients. Though not statistically significant, the frequency of postpartum hemorrhage was higher in the propranolol group (20% vs 10%, RR 2.02, 95% CI 0.93-4.43).
In this multisite, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial, there was no difference in cesarean delivery rate for patients who received propranolol compared with those who received placebo for management of prolonged labor.
ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT04299438.
Patients with congenital heart disease are at high risk for peripartum cardiac morbidity, yet data on the impact of duration of labor on cardiac outcomes are limited. Prolonged labor is a known risk ...factor for maternal morbidity, but the impact of prolonged labor on cardiac outcomes in patients with congenital heart disease has not been evaluated.
This study aimed to evaluate the association between prolonged labor (≥24 hours) and adverse peripartum maternal cardiac outcomes in pregnant patients with congenital heart disease.
This was a retrospective cohort study of pregnant patients ≥18 years with congenital heart disease who received prenatal care and delivered at an academic institution between 1998 and 2020 with a singleton gestation. Pregnancies that ended <20 weeks’ gestation and patients who underwent an outright cesarean delivery without exposure to labor were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite adverse maternal cardiac outcome that occurred intrapartum or up to 6 weeks postpartum, defined as the occurrence of 1 or more of the following events: heart failure or clinical volume overload requiring diuresis, pulmonary edema, arrhythmia requiring treatment, thromboembolic complications including deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism, transient ischemic attack, stroke, endocarditis, myocardial infarction, aortic dissection, cardiac arrest, or cardiac death. Outcomes were compared between patients with prolonged labor (≥24 hours) and those without prolonged labor (<24 hours). An interaction between prolonged labor and cesarean delivery was evaluated.
A total of 229 patients were included. The median duration of labor was 14 hours, and 18% of patients labored for ≥24 hours. Overall, 11.8% experienced the composite cardiac outcome with a significantly higher rate in the prolonged labor group (22% vs 9.6%; P=.03). After adjusting for confounders, including nulliparity, labor induction, gestational age, and World Health Organization class, there was a 2.7-fold increase in the odds of the composite cardiac outcome for patients who experienced prolonged labor (adjusted odds ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–7.1). There was no significant difference in cardiac outcome between those who had a vaginal delivery and those who had a cesarean delivery during labor (10.0% vs 16.1%; P=.18). There was, however, a significant interaction between prolonged labor and cesarean delivery; after adjustment for confounders, patients who underwent a cesarean delivery after prolonged labor had a 6.8-fold increase in the odds of experiencing the composite cardiac outcome when compared with those who underwent a cesarean delivery without prolonged labor (30.8% vs 7.1%; adjusted odds ratio, 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.4–32.5), most commonly, heart failure or volume overload requiring diuresis.
In a cohort of pregnant patients with congenital heart disease, prolonged duration of labor ≥24 hours was significantly associated with an increased risk for an adverse peripartum cardiac outcome, especially among those who underwent a cesarean delivery after that time. These findings suggest that close attention should be paid to the duration of labor, and those who require a cesarean delivery after a prolonged labor should be monitored closely for signs of volume overload and other adverse cardiac events.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The use of assisted reproductive technology has increased in the United States in the past several decades. Although most of these pregnancies are uncomplicated, in vitro fertilization is associated ...with an increased risk for adverse perinatal outcomes primarily caused by the increased risks of prematurity and low birthweight associated with in vitro fertilization pregnancies. This Consult discusses the management of pregnancies achieved with in vitro fertilization and provides recommendations based on the available evidence. The recommendations by the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine are as follows: (1) we suggest that genetic counseling be offered to all patients undergoing or who have undergone in vitro fertilization with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection (GRADE 2C); (2) regardless of whether preimplantation genetic testing has been performed, we recommend that all patients who have achieved pregnancy with in vitro fertilization be offered the options of prenatal genetic screening and diagnostic testing via chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis (GRADE 1C); (3) we recommend that the accuracy of first-trimester screening tests, including cell-free DNA for aneuploidy, be discussed with patients undergoing or who have undergone in vitro fertilization (GRADE 1A); (4) when multifetal pregnancies do occur, we recommend that counseling be offered regarding the option of multifetal pregnancy reduction (GRADE 1C); (5) we recommend that a detailed obstetrical ultrasound examination (CPT 76811) be performed for pregnancies achieved with in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (GRADE 1B); (6) we suggest that fetal echocardiography be offered to patients with pregnancies achieved with in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (GRADE 2C); (7) we recommend that a careful examination of the placental location, placental shape, and cord insertion site be performed at the time of the detailed fetal anatomy ultrasound, including evaluation for vasa previa (GRADE 1B); (8) although visualization of the cervix at the 18 0/7 to 22 6/7 weeks of gestation anatomy assessment with either a transabdominal or endovaginal approach is recommended, we do not recommend serial cervical length assessment as a routine practice for pregnancies achieved with in vitro fertilization (GRADE 1C); (9) we suggest that an assessment of fetal growth be performed in the third trimester for pregnancies achieved with in vitro fertilization; however, serial growth ultrasounds are not recommended for the sole indication of in vitro fertilization (GRADE 2B); (10) we do not recommend low-dose aspirin for patients with pregnancies achieved with IVF as the sole indication for preeclampsia prophylaxis; however, if 1 or more additional risk factors are present, low-dose aspirin is recommended (GRADE 1B); (11) given the increased risk for stillbirth, we suggest weekly antenatal fetal surveillance beginning by 36 0/7 weeks of gestation for pregnancies achieved with in vitro fertilization (GRADE 2C); (12) in the absence of studies focused specifically on timing of delivery for pregnancies achieved with IVF, we recommend shared decision-making between patients and healthcare providers when considering induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation (GRADE 1C).
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Electronic fetal monitoring is used in most US hospital births but has significant limitations in achieving its intended goal of preventing intrapartum hypoxic-ischemic injury. Novel deep learning ...techniques can improve complex data processing and pattern recognition in medicine.
This study aimed to apply deep learning approaches to develop and validate a model to predict fetal acidemia from electronic fetal monitoring data.
The database was created using intrapartum electronic fetal monitoring data from 2006 to 2020 from a large, multisite academic health system. Data were divided into training and testing sets with equal distribution of acidemic cases. Several different deep learning architectures were explored. The primary outcome was umbilical artery acidemia, which was investigated at 4 clinically meaningful thresholds: 7.20, 7.15, 7.10, and 7.05, along with base excess. The receiver operating characteristic curves were generated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic assessed to determine the performance of the models. External validation was performed using a publicly available Czech database of electronic fetal monitoring data.
A total of 124,777 electronic fetal monitoring files were available, of which 77,132 had <30% missingness in the last 60 minutes of the electronic fetal monitoring tracing. Of these, 21,041 were matched to a corresponding umbilical cord gas result, of which 10,182 were time-stamped within 30 minutes of the last electronic fetal monitoring reading and composed the final dataset. The prevalence rates of the outcomes in the data were 20.9% with a pH of <7.2, 9.1% with a pH of <7.15, 3.3% with a pH of <7.10, and 1.3% with a pH of <7.05. The best performing model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.85 at a pH threshold of <7.05. When predicting the joint outcome of both pH of <7.05 and base excess of less than −10 meq/L, an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.89 was achieved. When predicting both pH of <7.20 and base excess of less than −10 meq/L, an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.87 was achieved. At a pH of <7.15 and a positive predictive value of 30%, the model achieved a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 48%.
The application of deep learning methods to intrapartum electronic fetal monitoring analysis achieves promising performance in predicting fetal acidemia. This technology could help improve the accuracy and consistency of electronic fetal monitoring interpretation.
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