Colorectal cancer (CRC) is becoming an increasing health problem worldwide. However, with the help of screening, early diagnosis can reduce incidence and mortality rates. To elevate the economic ...burden that CRC can cause, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) can assist healthcare systems to make screening programmes more cost-effective and prolong survival for early-stage CRC patients. This review aims to identify different CEA modelling methods used internationally to evaluate health economics of CRC screening.
This review will systematically search electronic databases which include MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and Scopus. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidance recommendations will design the review, and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement will be used to extract relevant data from studies retrieved. Two reviewers will screen through the evidence using the PICOS (Participant, Intervention, Comparators, Outcomes, Study Design) framework, with a third reviewer to settle any disagreements. Once data extraction and quality assessment are complete, the results will be presented qualitatively and tabulated using the CHEERS checklist.
The results obtained from the systematic review will highlight how different CRC screening programmes around the world utilise and incorporate health economic modelling methods to be more cost-effective. This information can help modellers develop CEA models which can be adapted to suit the specific screening programmes that they are evaluating.
PROSPERO CRD42022296113.
Introduction. Colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention programs using fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in screening rely on colonoscopy for secondary and surveillance testing. Colonoscopy capacity is an ...important constraint. Some European programs lack sufficient capacity to provide optimal screening intensity regarding age ranges, intervals, and FIT cutoffs. It is currently unclear how to optimize programs within colonoscopy capacity constraints. Design. Microsimulation modeling, using the MISCAN-Colon model, was used to determine if more effective CRC screening programs can be identified within constrained colonoscopy capacity. A total of 525 strategies were modeled and compared, varying 3 key screening parameters: screening intervals, age ranges, and FIT cutoffs, including previously unevaluated 4- and 5-year screening intervals (using a lifetime horizon and 100% adherence). Results were compared with the policy decisions taken in Ireland to provide CRC screening within available colonoscopy capacity. Outcomes estimated net costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and required colonoscopies. The optimal strategies within finite colonoscopy capacity constraints were identified. Results. Combining a reduced FIT cutoff of 10 µg Hb/g, an extended screening interval of 4 y and an age range of 60–72 y requires 6% fewer colonoscopies, reduces net costs by 23% while preventing 15% more CRC deaths and saving 16% more QALYs relative to a strategy (FIT 40 µg Hb/g, 2-yearly, 60–70 year) approximating current policy. Conclusion. Previously overlooked longer screening intervals may optimize cancer prevention with finite colonoscopy capacity constraints. Changes could save lives, reduce costs, and relieve colonoscopy capacity pressures. These findings are relevant to CRC screening programs across Europe that employ FIT-based testing, which face colonoscopy capacity constraints.
Every year more than 11,000 women in the UK will die from breast cancer. The UK spends significantly less than the G7 average on healthcare (Rocks and Boccarini 2021) and the five-year relative ...survival rate for breast cancer in women is below the European average in England, Wales and Scotland although survival is similar to the European average in Northern Ireland (Cancer Research UK 2022).
During the COVID-19 lockdown, referrals via the 2-week-wait urgent pathway for suspected cancer in England, UK, are reported to have decreased by up to 84%. We aimed to examine the impact of ...different scenarios of lockdown-accumulated backlog in cancer referrals on cancer survival, and the impact on survival per referred patient due to delayed referral versus risk of death from nosocomial infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
In this modelling study, we used age-stratified and stage-stratified 10-year cancer survival estimates for patients in England, UK, for 20 common tumour types diagnosed in 2008–17 at age 30 years and older from Public Health England. We also used data for cancer diagnoses made via the 2-week-wait referral pathway in 2013–16 from the Cancer Waiting Times system from NHS Digital. We applied per-day hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer progression that we generated from observational studies of delay to treatment. We quantified the annual numbers of cancers at stage I–III diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway using 2-week-wait age-specific and stage-specific breakdowns. From these numbers, we estimated the aggregate number of lives and life-years lost in England for per-patient delays of 1–6 months in presentation, diagnosis, or cancer treatment, or a combination of these. We assessed three scenarios of a 3-month period of lockdown during which 25%, 50%, and 75% of the normal monthly volumes of symptomatic patients delayed their presentation until after lockdown. Using referral-to-diagnosis conversion rates and COVID-19 case-fatality rates, we also estimated the survival increment per patient referred.
Across England in 2013–16, an average of 6281 patients with stage I–III cancer were diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway per month, of whom 1691 (27%) would be predicted to die within 10 years from their disease. Delays in presentation via the 2-week-wait pathway over a 3-month lockdown period (with an average presentational delay of 2 months per patient) would result in 181 additional lives and 3316 life-years lost as a result of a backlog of referrals of 25%, 361 additional lives and 6632 life-years lost for a 50% backlog of referrals, and 542 additional lives and 9948 life-years lost for a 75% backlog in referrals. Compared with all diagnostics for the backlog being done in month 1 after lockdown, additional capacity across months 1–3 would result in 90 additional lives and 1662 live-years lost due to diagnostic delays for the 25% backlog scenario, 183 additional lives and 3362 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 276 additional lives and 5075 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. However, a delay in additional diagnostic capacity with provision spread across months 3–8 after lockdown would result in 401 additional lives and 7332 life-years lost due to diagnostic delays under the 25% backlog scenario, 811 additional lives and 14 873 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 1231 additional lives and 22 635 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. A 2-month delay in 2-week-wait investigatory referrals results in an estimated loss of between 0·0 and 0·7 life-years per referred patient, depending on age and tumour type.
Prompt provision of additional capacity to address the backlog of diagnostics will minimise deaths as a result of diagnostic delays that could add to those predicted due to expected presentational delays. Prioritisation of patient groups for whom delay would result in most life-years lost warrants consideration as an option for mitigating the aggregate burden of mortality in patients with cancer.
None.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Objectives
Cancer is a leading cause of death. This paper examines the utilisation of unscheduled emergency end-of-life healthcare and estimates expenditure in this domain. We explore care patterns ...and quantify the likely benefits from service reconfigurations which may influence rates of hospital admission and deaths.
Methods
Using prevalence-based retrospective data from the Northern Ireland General Registrar’s Office linked by cancer diagnosis to Patient Administration episode data for unscheduled emergency care (1st January 2014 to 31st December 2015), we estimate unscheduled-emergency-care costs in the last year of life. We model potential resources released by reductions in length-of-stay for cancer patients. Linear regression examined patient characteristics affecting length of stay.
Results
A total of 3134 cancer patients used 60,746 days of unscheduled emergency care (average 19.5 days). Of these, 48.9% had ≥1 admission during their last 28 days of life. Total estimated cost was £28,684,261, averaging £9200 per person. Lung cancer patients had the highest proportion of admissions (23.2%, mean length of stay = 17.9 days, mean cost=£7224). The highest service use and total cost was in those diagnosed at stage IV (38.4%), who required 22,099 days of care, costing £9,629,014. Palliative care support, identified in 25.5% of patients, contributed £1,322,328. A 3-day reduction in the mean length of stay with a 10% reduction in admissions, could reduce costs by £7.37 million. Regression analyses explained 41% of length-of-stay variability.
Conclusions
The cost burden from unscheduled care use in the last year of life of cancer patients is significant. Opportunities to prioritise service reconfiguration for high-costing users emphasized lung and colorectal cancers as offering the greatest potential to influence outcomes.
Approximately 800 000 people die globally from colorectal cancer (CRC) every year. Prevention programs promote early detection, but for people with precancerous lesions, tailoring surveillance to ...include lifestyle-change programs could enhance prevention potential and improve outcomes.
Those with intermediate or high-risk polyps removed during CRC screening colonoscopy within the Northern Ireland CRC Screening Programme were invited to complete 8 discrete choice questions about tailored surveillance, analyzed using random-parameters logit and a latent class modeling approach.
A total of 231 participants (77% male) self-reported comorbid hypertension (53%), high cholesterol (48%), and mean body mass index of 28.7 (overweight). Although 39% of participants were unaware of their CRC risk status, 30.9% indicated they were already making changes to reduce their risk. Although all respondents were significantly risk- and cost-averse, the latent class analysis identified 3 segments (classes):
1. Class 1 (26.8%) significantly favored phone or email support for a lifestyle change, a 17-month testing interval, and noninvasive testing.
2. Class 2 (48.4%) preferred the status quo.
3. Class 3 (24.7%) significantly favored further risk reduction and invasive testing.
This is the first documented preference study focusing on postpolypectomy surveillance offering lifestyle interventions. Although current care is strongly preferred, risk and cost aversion are important for participants. Latent class analysis shows that some respondents are willing to change diet and lifestyle behaviors, reflecting a teachable moment, with opportunities to personalize and optimize surveillance. Significant discordance between perceived and known risk of recurrence and limited recall of risk information provided within current practice suggest necessary improvements to surveillance programs.
•Changes to diet and lifestyle, not currently offered within postpolypectomy surveillance, could potentially reduce cancer risk. Little is understood of patient preferences for their inclusion.•This is the first preferences study in postpolypectomy surveillance offering lifestyle interventions. Results show risk and cost-aversion and willingness to accept some lifestyle-change programs.•This study identifies low levels of risk awareness and information recall in a comorbid group highlighting the potential to support lifestyle-change interventions.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Skin cancer is a prevalent cancer in the UK. Its rising incidence and mortality rates are expected to result in substantial financial implications, particularly on diagnostic and treatment services ...for skin cancer management in Northern Ireland (NI). Such anticipated disease increases underscore the need for prevention and control measures that should help guide policymaking and planning efforts.
We conducted a cost of illness study to assess the economic impact of skin cancer in NI from the healthcare system's perspective, using a bottom-up method, employing NHS reference costs (UK£) for skin cancer diagnosis and treatment patient pathways in 2021/22. Sensitivity analyses varied diagnostic volumes by applying multipliers for benign cases, assuming a diagnostic conversion rate of 6.8%, and examined an alternative chemotherapy regimen compliance rate of 75%. Additionally, proportional cost increases were projected based on future estimated increases of 9% and 28% to malignant melanoma (MM) cases for diagnostic, treatment, and follow-up volumes.
Significant numbers of non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) and MM cases were recorded, 4289 NMSCs and 439 MM cases. The total cost for managing NMSC was £ 3,365,350. Total costs for MM skin cancer were £ 13,740,681, including £ 8,753,494 for procurement, administration, and chemotherapy drug use. Overall healthcare spending on skin cancer care totalled £ 21,167,651. Sensitivity analysis suggested diagnostic cost may increase significantly to £ 12,374,478 based on referral volume assumptions. If base case rates rise by 9 or 28% estimated total costs of treating skin cancer will increase to £ 22.3 million and £ 24.9 million, respectively.
Skin cancer management costs in NI totalled ∼£ 21.1 million to £ 32.1 million, depending on diagnostic referral assumptions. Costs have risen ∼10-fold over the past decade for MM due largely to chemotherapy costs. A predicted 28% increase in MM cases by 2040 would lead to ∼£ 3.8 million of additional expenditures, providing a significant challenge for cancer health systems.
•The cost of treating malignant melanoma increased 10-fold to £31k per case compared to previous estimates.•Current estimates show that skin cancer costs in Northern Ireland will reach approximately £ 22 million by 2025.•We expect a nine percent increase in Melanoma cases leading to an additional £ 1.2 million in budget requirements by 2025.•Increased incidence could be offset by approximately half if we were to implement an indoor tanning ban.•By 2040, without intervention, a 28% rise in melanoma cases is expected, requiring £3.8 million extra for treatment.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
IMPORTANCE: Childhood obesity is one of the biggest public health threats facing the UK, and video game use is considered a risk behavior for obesity among children. However, few studies have ...explored the prospective association between video game use and body mass index (BMI) or the potential mediators of this association. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether a longer-term association exists between video game use at a young age and BMI SD score in later years, independent of television use, and to ascertain whether this association is mediated by other energy-balance behaviors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study is a secondary analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a nationally representative sample of children who were born in the UK between September 1, 2000, and January 31, 2002, that focused on data collected when the children were aged 5, 7, 11, and 14 years. Data for all variables, except BMI, were provided by parental or caregiver reporting if the children were younger than 14 years of age. At age 14 years, the children self-reported their own behavior. Initial data analysis was conducted between September 18, 2018, and September 28, 2018, with supplementary analyses conducted from October 7, 2019, to November 22, 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome variable was BMI SD scores, with video game use as the exposure variable of interest. Physical activity, bedtime regularity, sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, and high-calorie food consumption were included as potential mediating behaviors. RESULTS: The full sample comprised 16 376 children and had a nearly equal number of boys (8393 51.3%) and girls (7983 48.7%). Every 1 SD increase in the number of hours of video game use at age 5 years was associated with a β = 0.018 higher BMI SD score at age 14 years (95% CI, 0.004-0.032). A small partial mediation of this association was found (direct association: β = 0.017 95% CI, 0.003-0.031; indirect association: β = 0.0011 95% CI, 0.0003-0.0019), suggesting that irregular bedtimes and higher consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages were mediators. The mediation model accounted for 36.7% (95% CI, 35.5-37.8) of the variance of the BMI SD score at age 14 years. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this study suggest a small (and not clinically meaningful) association between video game use in early childhood and higher BMI in later years, which may be mediated by irregular bedtimes and higher consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Future interventions to prevent childhood obesity should incorporate health promotion in mainstream video games to target children most at risk because of their high level of video game use.
To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent ...from the COVID-19 pandemic.
We modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2-6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19-related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008-2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval.
Delay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk-benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%.
Delays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required.
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