Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and ...scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various "Ross-Macdonald" mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955-1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•I explore links between minerals governance and human security in the Global South.•Transnational networks define domestic standards of natural resource conduct.•Domestic agents do not reconcile ...global and local institutions.•Global standards produce insecurity by limiting domestic political engagement.•Inclusive green institutions have potential to generate sustainability and security.
Over the last two decades, the international community has focused on building green institutional capacity in the Global South to foster human security across societies marked by rapid environmental change. Numerous nation-states have consequently institutionalized global models that have helped build administrative, fiscal, and regulatory capacity, as well as promote social and environmental protections. The emergence of strong (green) institutions, however, has not translated into the kind of social or environmental change expected; informal extractive activity (e.g., “illegal” mining), violent natural resource conflict, and environmental degradation remain enduring challenges. To understand why green governance reform has been unable to contribute to broader forms of human security, I analyze the process of institutional reform in the Global South, drawing specifically on minerals governance in Ghana and Sierra Leone. Building from multi-method fieldwork conducted between 2014 and 2016, I contend that a persistent focus on institutional design has obscured the ways in which green institution building reconfigures cross-scalar power relations that mediate governance-security linkages. In particular, the reform process has channeled power to transnational networks, which constitute what I call the green regulatory state, that produce and reproduce insecurity by reorienting social relations around global standards of natural resource conduct that 1) limit options for domestic political engagement and 2) exacerbate institutional pluralism and conflict. This argument challenges scholarship that perceives insecurity as a function of weak governance capacity by repositioning it as a direct consequence of the growth of green governance. This article contributes to an emerging body of work that questions the growing enthusiasm for green governance as a mechanism to mitigate conflict and improve social and environmental justice. It simultaneously posits that achieving sustainability and security within the context of the Anthropocene requires a more intensive focus on constructing inclusive – rather than strong – governance institutions.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The fight against malaria is increasingly threatened by failures in vector control due to growing insecticide resistance. This review examines the recent primary research that addresses the putative ...relationship between agricultural insecticide use and trends in insecticide resistance. To do so, descriptive evidence offered by the new research was categorized, and additional factors that impact the relationship between agricultural insecticide use and observed insecticide resistance in malaria vectors were identified. In 23 of the 25 relevant recent publications from across Africa, higher resistance in mosquito populations was associated with agricultural insecticide use. This association appears to be affected by crop type, farm pest management strategy and urban development.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•In Ghana, natural resource securitization has entrenched informal extraction.•State authority is selectively enforced leading to uneven patterns of engagement.•Selective enforcement is a response to ...the political topography of securitization.•I construct a typology to examine patterns of enforcement and conflict.•Global and domestic interests converge to shape center-periphery interactions.
Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
The prospects for the success of malaria control depend, in part, on the basic reproductive number for malaria, R0. Here, we estimate R0 in a novel way for 121 African populations, and thereby ...increase the number of R0 estimates for malaria by an order of magnitude. The estimates range from around one to more than 3,000. We also consider malaria transmission and control in finite human populations, of size H. We show that classic formulas approximate the expected number of mosquitoes that could trace infection back to one mosquito after one parasite generation, Z0(H), but they overestimate the expected number of infected humans per infected human, R0(H). Heterogeneous biting increases R0 and, as we show, Z0(H), but we also show that it sometimes reduces R0(H); those who are bitten most both infect many vectors and absorb infectious bites. The large range of R0 estimates strongly supports the long-held notion that malaria control presents variable challenges across its transmission spectrum. In populations where R0 is highest, malaria control will require multiple, integrated methods that target those who are bitten most. Therefore, strategic planning for malaria control should consider R0, the spatial scale of transmission, human population density, and heterogeneous biting.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Environmental governance reform—especially in the minerals sector—has featured prominently in Sierra Leone's peacebuilding agenda. While reform has enhanced environmental governance capacity ...in ways that foster peace, it has also exacerbated conflict over the redistribution of extractive rights. This article examines one such conflict over tantalite in northern Sierra Leone. In the chiefdom of Sella Limba, violence erupted as local landowners and a multinational company utilized institutional hybridity—or the blending of informal–indigenous institutions with liberal reforms—to construct competing claims over mineral rights. The resulting uncertainty over the extractive ‘rules of the game’ accelerated conflict as stakeholders attempted to (re)negotiate the distributional consequences of institutional change in real time. International and national actors ultimately rejected hybrid institutional arrangements on the grounds that they distorted post-conflict reforms and undermined peace. Drawing on in-depth fieldwork, I retrace the conflict to provide an alternative perspective. I contend that institutional hybridity served as a necessary component of, rather than barrier to, peacebuilding because it 1) opened space for diverse political participation in post-conflict environmental governance and 2) promoted greater political accountability and integration. These outcomes have been theorized as ways in which environmental reform can facilitate post-conflict peace. This argument aims to advance environmental peacebuilding theory by examining the conditions under which environmental governance reform contributes to post-conflict peacebuilding.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This article interrogates local engagement in protected area development as a mechanism for peacebuilding in Afghanistan. Using interviews with representatives from the Band-e-Amir Protected Area ...Committee, I argue that protected area engagement produced mixed outcomes. In one sense, local engagement generated confidence that democratic processes introduced through governance reforms could transform power structures and resolve conflict. Yet, these same processes eroded confidence in the state's ability to deliver benefits and serve as a foundation for peace. This case suggests a need to consider how environmental peacebuilding at subnational scales can impede post-conflict peacebuilding through its effect on state-society relations.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. ...Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms "influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)", excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•We surveyed citizen scientists in India to assess motivation and broader impacts.•We classify citizen scientists as “environmental opinion leaders.”•Citizen scientists may mobilize as experts ...through participation.•Citizen scientists pass on expertise to non-scientists through social networks.•Citizen science may contribute to conservation advocacy in India.
Citizen science – public participation of non-scientists in scientific research – has become an important tool for monitoring and evaluating local and global environmental change. Citizen science projects have been shown to enable large-scale data collection, increase scientific literacy, and monitor environmental quality. However, few studies have examined the individual-level motivations and impacts of citizen science participation. We employ an exploratory multi-method approach (on-line surveys, a focus-group session, informal interviews, and descriptive statements) to evaluate the experiences of citizen scientists volunteering with two conservation organizations based in Bangalore, India. Our findings suggest that citizen science may contribute to increased environmental awareness among the general public. In particular, we identify a three-step process whereby highly motivated individuals, or environmental opinion leaders, seek out citizen science opportunities due to an interest in one or more environmental issues; gain expertise through citizen science participation; and diffuse acquired skills and knowledge to peers through social networks, education of other non-scientist Indian citizens, and/or changes in career or education trajectories. As a result, citizen scientists in India promote environmental principles through an active environmental advocacy network.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
The classic formulae in malaria epidemiology are reviewed that relate entomological parameters to malaria transmission, including mosquito survivorship and age-at-infection, the stability index (S), ...the human blood index (HBI), proportion of infected mosquitoes, the sporozoite rate, the entomological inoculation rate (EIR), vectorial capacity (C) and the basic reproductive number (R0). The synthesis emphasizes the relationships among classic formulae and reformulates a simple dynamic model for the proportion of infected humans. The classic formulae are related to formulae from cyclical feeding models, and some inconsistencies are noted. The classic formulae are used to to illustrate how malaria control reduces malaria transmission and show that increased mosquito mortality has an effect even larger than was proposed by Macdonald in the 1950's.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
PDF
