Summary Background The seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) has reduced vaccine-type (VT) invasive pneumococcal disease but increases in non-vaccine-type (NVT) disease have varied ...between countries. We assess the effect of the PCV7 vaccination on VT and NVT disease in England and Wales. Methods The study cohort was the population of England and Wales from July, 2000, to June, 2010. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare incidences of VT and NVT disease before (2000–06) and after (2009–10) the introduction of PCV7. We used data from the national surveillance database. Cases included in our analysis were restricted to those confirmed by culture linked with isolates referred for serotyping at the national reference centre by laboratories in England and Wales. We adjusted for potential bias from missing data (serotype and age of patient) and changes in case ascertainment rates during the study period. Findings 5809 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease were reported in 2009–10, giving an incidence of 10·6 per 100 000 population in 2009–10, which, when compared with the adjusted average annual incidence of 16·1 in 2000–06, gives an overall reduction of 34% (95% CI 28–39). VT disease decreased in all age groups, with reductions of 98% in individuals younger than 2 years and 81% in those aged 65 years or older. NVT disease increased by 68% in individuals younger than 2 years and 48% in those aged 65 years or older, giving an overall reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease of 56% in those younger than 2 years and 19% in those aged 65 years or older. After vaccine introduction, more NVT serotypes increased in frequency than decreased, which is consistent with vaccine-induced replacement. Key serotypes showing replacement were 7F, 19A, and 22F. Increases in NVT invasive pneumococcal disease were not associated with antimicrobial resistance. Interpretation Despite much serotype replacement, a substantial reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease in young children can be achieved with PCV7 vaccination, with some indirect benefit in older age groups. Further reductions should be achievable by use of higher valency vaccines. Robust surveillance data are needed to properly assess the epidemiological effect of multivalent pneumococcal disease vaccines. Funding Health Protection Agency.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
We present a new compilation of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), a new data set of low-redshift nearby-Hubble-flow SNe, and new analysis procedures to work with these heterogeneous compilations. This ...'Union' compilation of 414 SNe Ia, which reduces to 307 SNe after selection cuts, includes the recent large samples of SNe Ia from the Supernova Legacy Survey and ESSENCE Survey, the older data sets, as well as the recently extended data set of distant supernovae observed with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). A single, consistent, and blind analysis procedure is used for all the various SN Ia subsamples, and a new procedure is implemented that consistently weights the heterogeneous data sets and rejects outliers. We present the latest results from this Union compilation and discuss the cosmological constraints from this new compilation and its combination with other cosmological measurements (CMB and BAO). The constraint we obtain from supernovae on the dark energy density is image, for a flat, Lambda CDM universe. Assuming a constant equation of state parameter, w, the combined constraints from SNe, BAO, and CMB give image. While our results are consistent with a cosmological constant, we obtain only relatively weak constraints on a w that varies with redshift. In particular, the current SN data do not yet significantly constrain w at image. With the addition of our new nearby Hubble-flow SNe Ia, these resulting cosmological constraints are currently the tightest available.
Summary Background The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) protects against key serotypes that increased after routine immunisation with the seven-valent vaccine (PCV7), but its ...potential for herd protection and serotype replacement is uncertain. The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales 4 years after its introduction. Methods We used a national dataset of electronically reported and serotyped invasive pneumococcal disease cases in England and Wales to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for vaccine and non-vaccine type invasive pneumococcal disease between July, 2013, and June, 2014, versus the pre-PCV13 and pre-PCV7 baseline. Incidence rates were corrected for missing serotype data and changes in surveillance sensitivity over time. An over-dispersed Poisson model was used to estimate IRRs and confidence intervals. Findings Incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in the epidemiological year 2013/14 decreased by 32% compared with the pre-PCV13 baseline (incidence 10·14 per 100 000 in 2008–10 vs 6·85 per 100 000 in 2013/14; IRR 0·68, 95% CI 0·64–0·72). This was due to an 86% reduction of the serotypes covered by PCV7 (1·46 vs 0·20 per 100 000; IRR 0·14, 0·10–0·18) and a 69% reduction of the additional six serotypes covered by PCV13 (4·48 vs 1·40 per 100 000; IRR 0·31, 0·28–0·35). When compared with the pre-PCV7 baseline, there was a 56% overall reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease (15·63 vs 6·85 per 100 000; IRR 0·44, 95% CI 0·43–0·47). Compared with the pre-PCV13 baseline, the incidence of non-PCV13 serotypes increased (incidence all ages 4·19 vs 5·25 per 100 000; IRR 1·25, 95% CI 1·17–1·35) due to increases across a broad range of serotypes in children younger than 5 years and in people aged 45 years or more. In children younger than 5 years, incidence of non-PCV13 serotypes in 2013/14 was higher than in 2012/13 (age <2 years: 12·03 vs 10·83 per 100 000; age 2–4 years: 4·08 vs 3·63 per 100 000). Interpretation 8 years of PCV use in England and Wales has reduced the overall incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease by more than 50%. The herd protection induced by PCV7 is continuing, and similar indirect protection is occurring from the additional serotypes covered by PCV13. There is, however, evidence of increasing invasive pneumococcal disease due to non-PCV13 serotypes, particularly in children younger than 5 years in 2014. If this increase continues, the maximum benefit of the PCV13 programme in children might already have been achieved. Funding Public Health England funds national surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
ABSTRACT Luminous quasars at can be studied in detail with the current generation of telescopes and provide us with unique information on the first gigayear of the universe. Thus far, these studies ...have been statistically limited by the number of quasars known at these redshifts. Such quasars are rare, and therefore, wide-field surveys are required to identify them, and multiwavelength data are required to separate them efficiently from their main contaminants, the far more numerous cool dwarfs. In this paper, we update and extend the selection for the quasars presented in Bañados et al. (2014) using the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) survey. We present the PS1 distant quasar sample, which currently consists of 124 quasars in the redshift range that satisfy our selection criteria. Of these quasars, 77 have been discovered with PS1, and 63 of them are newly identified in this paper. We present the composite spectra of the PS1 distant quasar sample. This sample spans a factor of ∼20 in luminosity and shows a variety of emission line properties. The number of quasars at presented in this work almost doubles the previously known quasars at these redshifts, marking a transition phase from studies of individual sources to statistical studies of the high-redshift quasar population, which was impossible with earlier, smaller samples.
The need for new antimicrobial agents is greater than ever because of the emergence of multidrug resistance in common pathogens, the rapid emergence of new infections, and the potential for use of ...multidrug-resistant agents in bioweapons. Paradoxically, some pharmaceutical companies have indicated that they are curtailing anti-infective research programs. We evaluated the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) databases of approved drugs and the research and development programs of the world's largest pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to document trends in the development of new antimicrobial agents. FDA approval of new antibacterial agents decreased by 56% over the past 20 years (1998-2002 vs. 1983-1987). Projecting future development, new antibacterial agents constitute 6 of 506 drugs disclosed in the developmental programs of the largest pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Despite the critical need for new antimicrobial agents, the development of these agents is declining. Solutions encouraging and facilitating the development of new antimicrobial agents are needed.
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BFBNIB, NUK, PNG, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid ...synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9–22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Although a large body of literature has been devoted to examining the relationship between eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids (EPA+DHA) and blood pressure, past systematic ...reviews have been hampered by narrow inclusion criteria and a limited scope of analytical subgroups. In addition, no meta-analysis to date has captured the substantial volume of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in the past 2 years. The objective of this meta-analysis was to examine the effect of EPA+DHA, without upper dose limits and including food sources, on blood pressure in RCTs.
METHODS
Random-effects meta-analyses were used to generate weighted group mean differences and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) between the EPA+DHA group and the placebo group. Analyses were conducted for subgroups defined by key subject or study characteristics.
RESULTS
Seventy RCTs were included. Compared with placebo, EPA+DHA provision reduced systolic blood pressure (−1.52mm Hg; 95% confidence interval (CI) = −2.25 to −0.79) and diastolic blood pressure (−0.99mm Hg; 95% CI = −1.54 to −0.44) in the meta-analyses of all studies combined. The strongest effects of EPA+DHA were observed among untreated hypertensive subjects (systolic blood pressure = −4.51mm Hg, 95% CI = −6.12 to −2.83; diastolic blood pressure = −3.05mm Hg, 95% CI = −4.35 to −1.74), although blood pressure also was lowered among normotensive subjects (systolic blood pressure = −1.25mm Hg, 95% CI = −2.05 to −0.46; diastolic blood pressure = −0.62mm Hg, 95% CI = −1.22 to −0.02).
CONCLUSIONS
Overall, available evidence from RCTs indicates that provision of EPA+DHA reduces systolic blood pressure, while provision of ≥2 grams reduces diastolic blood pressure.
iPTF16geu Goobar, A.; Amanullah, R.; Kulkarni, S. R. ...
Science,
04/2017, Volume:
356, Issue:
6335
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We report the discovery of a multiply imaged, gravitationally lensed type Ia supernova, iPTF16geu (SN 2016geu), at redshift z = 0.409. This phenomenon was identified because the light from the ...stellar explosion was magnified more than 50 times by the curvature of space around matter in an intervening galaxy. We used high-spatial-resolution observations to resolve four images of the lensed supernova, approximately 0.3 arc seconds from the center of the foreground galaxy. The observations probe a physical scale of ~1 kiloparsec, smaller than is typical in other studies of extragalactic gravitational lensing. The large magnification and symmetric image configuration imply close alignment between the lines of sight to the supernova and to the lens. The relative magnifications of the four images provide evidence for substructures in the lensing galaxy.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Stars with initial masses such that 10 ≤ Minitial ≤ 100, where is the solar mass, fuse progressively heavier elements in their centres, until the core is inert iron. The core then gravitationally ...collapses to a neutron star or a black hole, leading to an explosion-an iron-core-collapse supernova. By contrast, extremely massive stars with Minitial ≥ 140 (if such exist) develop oxygen cores with masses, Mcore, that exceed 50, where high temperatures are reached at relatively low densities. Conversion of energetic, pressure-supporting photons into electron-positron pairs occurs before oxygen ignition and leads to a violent contraction which triggers a nuclear explosion that unbinds the star in a pair-instability supernova. Transitional objects with 100 < Minitial < 140 may end up as iron-core-collapse supernovae following violent mass ejections, perhaps as a result of brief episodes of pair instability, and may already have been identified. Here we report observations of supernova SN 2007bi, a luminous, slowly evolving object located within a dwarf galaxy. We estimate the exploding core mass to be Mcore 100, in which case theory unambiguously predicts a pair-instability supernova. We show that >3 of radioactive 56Ni was synthesized during the explosion and that our observations are well fitted by models of pair-instability supernovae. This indicates that nearby dwarf galaxies probably host extremely massive stars, above the apparent Galactic stellar mass limit, which perhaps result from processes similar to those that created the first stars in the Universe.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
While it is clear that Type Ia supernovae (SNe) are the result of thermonuclear explosions in C/O white dwarfs (WDs), a great deal remains uncertain about the binary companion that facilitates the ...explosive disruption of the WD. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of a large, unique data set of 127 SNe Ia with exquisite coverage by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). High-cadence (six observations per night) ZTF observations allow us to measure the SN rise time and examine its initial evolution. We develop a Bayesian framework to model the early rise as a power law in time, which enables the inclusion of priors in our model. For a volume-limited subset of normal SNe Ia, we find that the mean power-law index is consistent with 2 in the rZTF-band ( ), as expected in the expanding fireball model. There are, however, individual SNe that are clearly inconsistent with . We estimate a mean rise time of 18.9 days (with a range extending from ∼15 to 22 days), though this is subject to the adopted prior. We identify an important, previously unknown, bias whereby the rise times for higher-redshift SNe within a flux-limited survey are systematically underestimated. This effect can be partially alleviated if the power-law index is fixed to = 2, in which case we estimate a mean rise time of 21.7 days (with a range from ∼18 to 23 days). The sample includes a handful of rare and peculiar SNe Ia. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of lessons learned from the ZTF sample that can eventually be applied to observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
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